Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bearish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -4.9% (Russia), -4.5% (South Africa), -3.6% (Australia), -3.5% (USA, Germany), -3.1% (Hong Kong), -2.3% (Japan), -0.3% (China), +0.5% (Brazil), to +1.5% (India).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

The mighty Dow saw a net September decline of -1214pts (3.5%) to 33507, a decisive close below the key 10MA. Monthly momentum has rolled over, even settling fractionally negative! First big support is the March low of 31429, some 2078pts (6.2%) to the downside. Whether that is hit within October or November, that drop wouldn't merit any bearish hysteria.

I'd note secondary support of the monthly bollinger, currently around psy' 30K. A loss of 30K would indeed spook some, and offer a challenge of the Oct'2022 low of 28660.

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Germany – DAX

Japan – Nikkei

Brazil – Bovespa

Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX

China – Shanghai comp'

South Africa – Dow

Hong Kong – Hang Seng

Australia – AORD

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Summary

Eight world equity markets were net lower for September, with two net higher.

The Russian market lead the way down, whilst Brazil and India were net higher. 

The Indian market broke a new historic high.

Seven markets are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, the three exceptions being Japan, Brazil, and India.

Six markets have positive monthly momentum, the four exceptions being the USA, China, South Africa, and Australia.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M -

T - MKC, CALM, NG

W - TLRY, AYI, ANGO

T - STZ, CAG, LW, AEHR, LEVI

F -

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Econ-data/events:

M - ISM manu', construction

T - JOLTS

W - ADP jobs, factory orders, ISM serv', EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, intl' trade

F - Monthly jobs, consumer credit

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Final note

Again, I would suggest you ask yourself the following...

Did the market put in a key m/t high in July/August? 

If yes, the default trade across the Fall, and into the winter/early 2024, is clear. If you believe otherwise, then I would argue to those buying into every down wave... good luck with that.

 

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Sept/Q3 settles

US equity indexes mostly ended the month/Q3 on a weak note, SPX -11pts (0.3%) at 4288. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -0.1%. R2K -0.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, with the SPX printing 4333. From there, choppy cooling to 4274. The late afternoon saw a bounce to 4303, and settling at 4288.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an early low of 15.83, swinging upward to 17.74, and settling +1.0% to 17.52.

SPX, monthly

 

For September, the SPX declined by -219pts (4.9%), having printed 4238, the lowest since June 1st.
The August 'hanging man' candle notably played out.
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The sun sets on September/Q3 trading

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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A green Thursday

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +25pts (0.6%) at 4299. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +1.1%. R2K +0.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy. All the bears could manage was 4264, with a significant upside reversal to 4317. There was a cooling wave to 4290, if recovering to settle at 4299.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.8% to 17.34.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Midweek swings

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +1pt (0.02%) at 4274. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K +1.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but all the bulls could manage was 4292, before a swing lower to break a new cycle low of 4238. The late afternoon saw a bounce to 4292, and cooling to settle at 4274.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing a new cycle high of 19.71, but cooling to settle -3.8% to 18.22.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Another lower low

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -63pts (1.5%) at 4273. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -1.1%. The Transports settled -1.9%. R2K -1.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, with the SPX sliding across the day, printing 4265, and settling at 4273. Mr Market continues to print a series of lower highs... and lower lows, with ZERO sign of a s/t floor.

Volatility continued to increase, the VIX printing a new cycle high of 19.50, and settling +12.1% at 18.94.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Upside reversal

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +17pts (0.4%) at 4337. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +0.8%. R2K +0.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened moderately lower - pressured by higher bond yields, with the SPX breaking a new s/t low of 4302. Yet... there was an early upside reversal that carried into the early afternoon to 4336. From there... considerable chop, settling moderately higher to 4337.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 18.41, but cooling back to settle -1.7% to 16.90.

*I'll merely add, equity bounces have to be expected within a multi-week/month down wave. Last Friday and today, were both reminders of that.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -3.8% (R2K), -3.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -2.9% (SPX), -2.5% (NYSE comp'), -2.3% (Trans), to -1.9% (Dow). Near term outlook is bearish.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes were very significantly net lower for the week.

The R2K lead the way lower, with the Dow most resilient.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - THO

T - CTAS, FERG, COST, AIR

W - PAYX, MU, FUL

T - ACN, KMX, JBL, NKE, BB, MTN

F - CCL

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - New home sales, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf'

W - Durable goods orders, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q2 (print'3)

F - Pers' income/spending, PCE, Intl' trade,

As Friday Sept'29th is the last trading day of the month and Q3, I'd look for very dynamic price action on high vol'.
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Final note

I will merely note... the next six trading days could be pretty incredible, and besides... who doesn't love some market drama?

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Failed bounce

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -9pts (0.2%) at 4320. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K -0.25%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, if leaning on the positive side. The SPX printed 4357, but the gains fully faded, with indexes turning negative, the SPX printing a new s/t low of 4316, and settling 4320.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX printing 15.93, if recovering to settle -1.9% to 17.20

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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A red Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -72pts (1.6%) at 4330. Nasdaq comp' -1.8%. Dow -1.1%. The Transports settled -0.7%. R2K -1.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, with the SPX falling to 4350. From there, a bounce to 4365, but then resuming lower to settle at 4330... notably under the August low.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +15.8% to 17.54.

You should be hearing provisional alarm bells, not least via yields/bonds.
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–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Post Powell Depression

US equity indexes mostly closed broadly lower, SPX -41pts (0.9%) at 4402. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled u/c. R2K -1.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, with the SPX pushing to 4461.

The 2pm Fed press release saw an initial drop to 4433, with the Powell duly appearing...

There were a few rally attempts, but all failed, ending on a broadly weak note at 4402. Today's daily candle was bearish engulfing, and doesn't bode so great for Thursday.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 13.57, but swinging upward to settle +7.3% to 15.14.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weakness ahead of Powell

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -9pts (0.2%) at 4443. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.6%. R2K -0.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX cooling to 4416 in the early afternoon. There was a latter day recovery to 4449, and settling at 4443.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 14.88, but cooling back to settle +0.8% to 14.11.

Wednesday should be... dynamic.
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Tier'1 quality work from After Skool.
–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com