Tuesday 31 January 2023

One twelfth complete

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +58pts (1.5%) at 4076. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +1.1%. The Transports settled +3.5%. R2K +2.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, if leaning on the positive side, which continued into the late afternoon.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -2.7% to 19.40. Once the Fed is out of the way, the VIX will be inclined to be knocked even lower.
-


 


 



Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Monday 30 January 2023

Starting weak

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -52pts (1.3%) at 4017. Nasdaq comp' -2.0%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -2.2%. R2K -1.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, and whilst there were a few bounce attempts, the market significantly fell into the late afternoon.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +7.7% to 19.94. 
-

A fine winter's day

Full moon... Sunday Feb'5th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--


If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Saturday 28 January 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.5% (SPX), +2.4% (R2K), 1.8% (Dow), +1.2% (NYSE comp'), to +0.9% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way up, whilst the Transports lagged.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are above their respective monthly 10MA. All six US equity indexes still have negative monthly momentum.

Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings and rate hike eight.

Earnings:

M - SOFI, PHG, GEHC, CAJ, AGNC, NXPI, WHR

T - XOM, UPS, GM, PFE, CAT, MCD, SPOT, PSX, MPC, AMD, SNAP, AMGN, MDLZ, EA, CB, SYK, MTCH

W - WM, MO, TMUS, PTON, BSX, HUM, TMO, GSK, ABC, META, ALNG, AFL, ALL, MET, ELF

T - MRK, COP, LLY, BMY, HON, HSY, SONY, EL, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, F, QCOM, SBUX, X, GILD

F - CI, REGN, SNY

-

Econ-data/events

M -

T - Employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer conf'

W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', JOLTS, construction, vehicle sales

*FOMC announcement 2pm. Rate hike eight, +25bps to 4.50-4.75%. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm, which will last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, factory orders

F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISM serv'

*as Tuesday is end month, I'd expect dynamic price action on very high vol'.

-

Final note

This week saw a decisive settlement above m/t declining trend (well, at least for the SPX). Yet the same thing occurred in April 2008, and that didn't end so well.

On balance, I'm looking for the SPX to push to the 4150/60s... whether next week, or the following. From there, we should see renewed cooling. For confidence, bears need to take out the Dec'2022 low of 3764. Right now, that looks a stretch until March.

With equities powering upward into end month, I've sarcastically noted a few times in recent days, isn't it great the economy is strong, and that we have world peace?

The reality is very different, as the macro picture is increasingly lousy. The US/western consumers are losing purchasing power, with each and every month. Geo-political tensions continue to increase, as many western states are spoiling for a war with Russia.

Some - such as Prof' Siegel of Wharton, are demanding and/or expecting the Fed to cut rates in the second half. Yet... the historical fact is that such a rate cut would be the ultimate equity sell signal. 

Do you have enough popcorn for the 'big show' ?
If you love 'market drama', this is the year for you!

For more of the same....


For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend... if you deserve it.
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday 27 January 2023

Upside into the weekend

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +10pts (0.25%) at 4070. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +0.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but all the bears could manage was 4048, before the buyers appeared, with the SPX printing a new multi-week high of 4094 in the closing hour, if cooling back to 4070.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -1.2% to 18.51.
-


Full moon... Feb'5th

A little closer


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Thursday 26 January 2023

A green Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +44pts (1.1%) at 4060. Nasdaq comp' +1.8%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.01%. R2K +0.6%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were shaky from the start. The SPX cooled from 4052 to turn fractionally negative at 4013. There was a secondary push upward, and this time... the gains built into the final minutes to print a new multi-week high of 4061.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -1.8% to 18.73.
-

The moon, Jupiter, and some LED-lit cranes


Next full moon Feb'5th

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Wednesday 25 January 2023

Wednesday reversal

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -0.7pts (0.02%) at 4016. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.03%. The Transports settled -1.1%. R2K +0.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, not helped MSFT or BA...

Many seem agreed, if there is one CEO that needs to get the boot, its the Calhoun.

The bears managed sp'3949, but there was a pretty strong upside reversal, even turning briefly positive to 4019, and settling effectively flat at 4016.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 20.90, but cooling back to settle -0.6% at 19.08.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Tuesday 24 January 2023

A broken market

US equity indexes mostly closed a little weak, SPX -3pts (0.1%) at 4016. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.8%. R2K -0.2%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily


Summary

US equities opened on a weak note. Within minutes... a Twitter follower noted to me that NKE was halted. A browse at the Dow'30... and something was indeed 'broken'....

NKE, 5min...



A moderately confused cheerleader


A fair number of stocks were either limit up or down, with some duly halted. Whilst it didn't take more than 10/15 minutes for things to resume 'normal service', its not a good sign.

All the bears could manage in early morning was 3989, with the SPX recovering upward to 4023, and settling a touch lower at 4016. 

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX printing 18.91, and settling -3.1% to 19.20. 
-

A fine... if cold, winter's day

Departing the failed state of the UK

Next full moon is Feb'5th


Bullish LEDs

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Monday 23 January 2023

Starting positive

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +47pts (1.2%) at 4019. Nasdaq comp' +2.0%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and built rather significant gains into the early afternoon. There was some cooling from 4039... but psy'4K held as new s/t support, settling at 4019.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX printing 20.33, but settling -0.2% to 19.81.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Saturday 21 January 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (Dow), -1.1% (R2K), -0.9% (NYSE comp'), -0.7% (SPX), -0.1% (Trans), to +0.5% (Nasdaq comp'). Near term outlook is for renewed downside.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Five US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with one net higher.

The Dow lead the way down, whilst the Nasdaq was moderately higher.

Looking ahead

A busy week is ahead...

Earnings:

M - BKR, LOGI

T - VZ, JNJ, LMT, HAL, TRV, GE, RTX, MMM, UNP, DHR, DHI, MSFT, TXN, COF, FFIV

W - BA, T, ABT, FCX, NEE, HES, ADP, USB TSLA, NOW, IBM, LRCX, STLD, LVS, CSX, STX

T - AAL, LUV, NOK, VLO, MA, BX, NUC, JBLU, NOC, ALK, INTC, V

F - CVX, AXP, HCA, CL

-

Econ-data/events

M - Leading indicators

T - PMI manu', PMI serv'

W - EIA Pet' report

T - GDP Q4 (print'1), Weekly jobs, Intl' trade, Durable goods orders, new home sales

F - Pers' income/outlays, consumer sentiment, pending home sales

-

A fine winter's day

 
Final note

More than anything, I'd remain focused on how the month settles. Bulls should be desperate for January to close >4K, whilst bears should be content with <3950 or so.

The weeks and months ahead, should offer some great trading/investment opportunities. Even for those on the sidelines, it should still make for great entertainment. The only issue is whether you have enough popcorn and drinks for the big show.

 
If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.