Saturday, 12 June 2021

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.4% (SPX), -0.1% (NYSE comp'), -0.8% (Dow), to -0.9% (Transports).

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (weekly candle charts)

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans


Summary

Two indexes were net higher, with three net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' saw very significant gains, whilst the Transports was broadly weak.

The SPX and NYSE comp' broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend in all five as bullish.

Looking ahead

The schedule is light. The highlight of the week will be the FOMC, and that will largely just be a question of how many times Powell and the mainstream media hacks use the word 'transitory' at the press conference.

Earnings:

M - HEXO

T - ORCL

W - LEN, HNST

T - JBL, KR, ADBE, SWBI

F -

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Retail sales, PPI, Empire state, indust' prod', busi' invent'

W - Housing starts, import/export prices, EIA Pet' report

FOMC announcement (2pm), with Fed press conf' (2.30pm)

T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indi'

F - *OPEX*

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Final note

So.... it was a mixed week, but the collective of US equities are unquestionably still m/t bullish. It would seem even cooling to around 4000 is off the menu. Instead, perhaps 1-2% of cooling ahead of next Friday OPEX, and then resuming upward. 

The Fed, the mainstream cheerleaders (CNBC, FOX Business, Bloomberg), and Mr Market itself, all appear content to play the 'transitory' game for some months. The question is how long can 'transitory' be deemed to be? 

At what point would the fed break under concerns that inflation is spiraling out of control? It should be clear, from here on, every month will get ever more difficult for those at Print Central.

For charts, and whatever else I want to post about - outside the control of the mainstream media hacks, you know where to find me in... the twilight zone.

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 11 June 2021

Chop into the weekend

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +8pts (0.2%) at 4247. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +0.04%. The Transports settled +1.0%.

SPX - daily5


VIX - daily3

Summary

The week concluded with considerable minor chop.

Meanwhile...



I'm sure more participants for the 2021 Darwin award will be booking a trip for Iceland this summer.

The afternoon saw considerable chop... all the way into the close.

Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling -2.8% to 15.65.
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Almost as green as the SPX


Ten days until summer solstice


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 10 June 2021

CPI is so hot right now

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +19pts (0.5%) at 4239. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -0.7%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX pushing to a new historic high of 4249.

Meanwhile...

The Fed's favoured measure 'core' - which excludes food/energy, climbed to 3.8% from 3.0% prior. Its not a stretch to expect >4.0% with the next print in July. The pressure will really be on the fed once 6/7%. 

If you take a look at lumber, WTIC/gasoline, or just 'general prices', its difficult to see the Fed's belief will be anything but 'transitory'.

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The afternoon saw considerable chop, if leaning a touch weaker into the close. On any basis though, with a new historic high, it was a day for the bulls.

With the CPI data out of the way, volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -10.0% to 16.10.  
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Summer solstice is another day closer


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--


If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com