Monday, 28 April 2025

A mixed Monday

US equity indexes mostly closed positive, SPX +3pts (0.1%) at 5528. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K +0.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but the SPX did lean upward to 5553. From there... cooling to 5468, and recovering to settle at 5528. Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 26.93, if cooling back to settling +1.2% to 25.15


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 26 April 2025

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +6.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +4.6% (SPX), +4.1% (R2K), +2.9% (NYSE comp'), +2.5% (Dow), to +0.4% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All six US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq was very powerfully higher, whilst the Transports was the laggard.

The SPX, Nasdaq, R2K, and NYSE comp', had bullish engulfing weekly candles, and are very suggestive of a higher high next week.

Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of big name earnings, and the first print of Q1 GDP. No doubt, there will be further tariff related news headlines.

Earnings

M - $DPZ $MGM $CX $WM $NXPI $FFIV $TER $NUE $RIG $WELL $CDNS $ABCB $AMKR

T - $KO $SOFI $PYPL $UPS $JBLU $PFE $RCL $SPOT $FOUR $MO $V $SBUX $SNAP $FSLR $PPG $BKNG $QRVO $OKE $ACGL $TTI

W - $CAT $HUM $VMC $WDC $GNRC $IP $WGS $ADP $HES $GEHC $MSFT $META $QCOM $HOOD $ALB $GRBK $PPC $NLY $CP $PRU

T - $MCD $SHAK $LLY $RBLX $CVS $MA $SIRI $BAX $PWR $BLDR $AMZN $AAPL $RIOT $ABNB $RDDT $BBAI $TEAM $FIVN $AIG $AJG

F - $XOM $CVX $AES $FUBO $BEP $MGA $APO $CE $WEN $FET

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Intl' trade, retail & wholesale inventories, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf', JOLTS

W - Q1 GDP (print'1), ADP jobs, Pers' income/spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, pending home sales

T - Weekly jobs, PMI & ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

F - Monthly jobs, factory orders

*As Wednesday is end month, I'd expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'. In theory... leaning to the downside.

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Final note

If anything, its bemusing that some don't accept 4835 as a key low. Somewhat less bizarre is seeing a number touting a straight push to new historic highs. On what excuse do they see that happening? I see a fair number of upside targets, but no one wants to give a reason for such upside.

Whilst yours truly is still lacking a DeLorean, the style of price action we've seen since the Feb' high of 6147 is clear. We're s/t bullish into the May 7th FOMC. The SPX 5700s and VIX 20s is the easy call. The tough call is whether we then stall... and eventually break <4835, or broadly climb across the summer. 

Regular readers should be well aware of where I see us headed. For now, I'll merely note... m/t bearish unless >5850 (to be decisive).

Just be sure to have enough popcorn for the 'big show', which is only going to become more dramatic,  but then... who doesn't love some drama?


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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 25 April 2025

Algo bot melt into the weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +40pts (0.7%) at 5525. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.05%. The Transports settled -1.9%. R2K +0.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly flat. There was a little cooling, but all the bears could manage was 5455. From there... algo bot upward melt to 5528, and settling at 5525.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -6.2% to 24.84.  
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Soon... we can call it the 'Starmer sun'


Bullish green & flowers

A very hazy sky... as Starmer is seeking
 


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EDT) @ https://x.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, X, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com