Saturday, 1 October 2022

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bearish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -16.1% (Russia), -13.7% (Hong Kong), -8.8% (USA), -7.8% (Australia), -7.7% (Japan), -5.6% (Germany), -5.5% (China), 5.1% (South Africa), -3.5% (India), to +0.5% (Brazil).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


Germany – DAX


Japan – Nikkei


Brazil – Bovespa



Russia - RTSI


India – SENSEX


China – Shanghai comp'


South Africa – Dow


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


Australia – AORD

Summary

Nine world equity markets were net lower for September, with one net higher.

Russia and Hong Kong lead the way down, whilst Brazil managed a moderate gain.

Eight world equity markets settled under their respective monthly 10MA, the two exceptions being Brazil and India.

All ten world equity markets have negative monthly price momentum, as the collective of world equity markets are in a bear market.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M -

T - AYI, NG

W -

T - STZ, MKC, CAG, ANGO, LEVI, ACCD

F - TLRY

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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

T - JOLTS, factory orders

W - ADP jobs, Intl' trade, pending home sales, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs

F - Monthly jobs, wholesale invent', consumer credit

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Final note 

The system is breaking apart. This past week saw the BoE spool up the printers to buy bonds, effectively bailing out the UK pension industry. Its a typical can kicking measure, and will do nothing to solve the underlying problems.

The UK sheep are increasingly stressed, as power prices are adjusting (as of Oct'1st). Many will manage... some won't. Then there are the higher mortgage repayments. Again, many will manage... some won't. It doesn't take more than a small percentage of defaults to collapse a ponzi-based financial system. 

I'd understand that most of you don't care about the UK, but its reflective of mainland Europe, and to some extent, the USA. Never mind the issue that a spiraling Pound (and Euro) will pressure the dollar upward, and we know what that does to most asset classes, right?

It should be clear, we're just in the early phase. We've not even seen the leading edge of consumer debt defaults yet. How long until that occurs? A few months, six, a year?


The window has closed

Across the summer I've noted the 'window of opportunity' to prepare for the winter of 2022/23. That window has now closed. Either you're ready... or you're not. 

October, and the bulk of Q4 should be 'scary wild' in the US and broader global capital markets. If you're interested in non-sugar coated chatter, then you know where to find me.

 

 

For details, and the latest offers: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 30 September 2022

A bearish Q3

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -54pts (1.5%) at 3585. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -1.7%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -0.7%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, not helped by the latest hot PCE data, reflective of underlying inflationary pressures. The SPX printed 3614, but then battled back upward to 3671 by 11am.

The afternoon saw renewed downside, even breaking a new cycle low of 3584, and settling at 3585.

Despite the equity declines, volatility was ground a little lower into end month/quarter, the VIX settling -0.7% to 31.62.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Thursday, 29 September 2022

Another red Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -78pts (2.1%) at 3640. Nasdaq comp' -2.8%. Dow -1.5%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -2.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower. Partly... European markets weren't helping, and partly is was just s/t cyclical cooling. Yet... the cooling wave/retrace became something much more, with the SPX spiraling lower to break under Tuesday's low. 

The afternoon was ugly, with the SPX printing 3610, with a late afternoon recovery to 3640.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 33.46, and settling +5.5% to 31.84. Its notable that whilst equities broke a new cycle low, this was not mirrored by the VIX.
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A fine Autumn day


Next full moon is Oct'9th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com