Monday, 30 January 2023

Starting weak

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -52pts (1.3%) at 4017. Nasdaq comp' -2.0%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -2.2%. R2K -1.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, and whilst there were a few bounce attempts, the market significantly fell into the late afternoon.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +7.7% to 19.94. 
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A fine winter's day

Full moon... Sunday Feb'5th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 28 January 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.5% (SPX), +2.4% (R2K), 1.8% (Dow), +1.2% (NYSE comp'), to +0.9% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way up, whilst the Transports lagged.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are above their respective monthly 10MA. All six US equity indexes still have negative monthly momentum.

Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings and rate hike eight.

Earnings:

M - SOFI, PHG, GEHC, CAJ, AGNC, NXPI, WHR

T - XOM, UPS, GM, PFE, CAT, MCD, SPOT, PSX, MPC, AMD, SNAP, AMGN, MDLZ, EA, CB, SYK, MTCH

W - WM, MO, TMUS, PTON, BSX, HUM, TMO, GSK, ABC, META, ALNG, AFL, ALL, MET, ELF

T - MRK, COP, LLY, BMY, HON, HSY, SONY, EL, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, F, QCOM, SBUX, X, GILD

F - CI, REGN, SNY

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Econ-data/events

M -

T - Employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer conf'

W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', JOLTS, construction, vehicle sales

*FOMC announcement 2pm. Rate hike eight, +25bps to 4.50-4.75%. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm, which will last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, factory orders

F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISM serv'

*as Tuesday is end month, I'd expect dynamic price action on very high vol'.

-

Final note

This week saw a decisive settlement above m/t declining trend (well, at least for the SPX). Yet the same thing occurred in April 2008, and that didn't end so well.

On balance, I'm looking for the SPX to push to the 4150/60s... whether next week, or the following. From there, we should see renewed cooling. For confidence, bears need to take out the Dec'2022 low of 3764. Right now, that looks a stretch until March.

With equities powering upward into end month, I've sarcastically noted a few times in recent days, isn't it great the economy is strong, and that we have world peace?

The reality is very different, as the macro picture is increasingly lousy. The US/western consumers are losing purchasing power, with each and every month. Geo-political tensions continue to increase, as many western states are spoiling for a war with Russia.

Some - such as Prof' Siegel of Wharton, are demanding and/or expecting the Fed to cut rates in the second half. Yet... the historical fact is that such a rate cut would be the ultimate equity sell signal. 

Do you have enough popcorn for the 'big show' ?
If you love 'market drama', this is the year for you!

For more of the same....


For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend... if you deserve it.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 27 January 2023

Upside into the weekend

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +10pts (0.25%) at 4070. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +0.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but all the bears could manage was 4048, before the buyers appeared, with the SPX printing a new multi-week high of 4094 in the closing hour, if cooling back to 4070.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -1.2% to 18.51.
-


Full moon... Feb'5th

A little closer


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com