Saturday, 28 November 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.7% (NYSE comp', Transports), +2.3% (SPX), to +2.2% (Dow).

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


Nasdaq comp'


Dow


NYSE comp'


Trans


Summary

All five US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, with the Dow lagging.

The Nasdaq comp', Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.

 

Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - ZM

T - NTAP, MOMO, CRM, BOX, HPE, VEEV

W - RENN, CRWD, FIVE, OKTA, RH, SNOW, SPLK, ZS, PVH

T - KR, DG, SIG, CBRL, CLDR, DOCU, MRVL, SWBI, ULTA, MIK

F - BIG, TRX

-

Econ-data/events

M - Chicago PMI, Pending home sales

T - PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

W - ADP jobs, EIA Pet', Fed Beige book

T - Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM serv'

F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, factory orders.

*as Monday is end month, expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'

-

Final note

We have just 23 trading days left of the year. For most, its a year to forget, but as things are, equities are set for net yearly gains of 10-15%. Its impressive, but then the Fed returned to ZIRP, and printed off $3trn.

There is the matter of the election, whose result is yet to be finalised. Whilst that is an issue of uncertainty - not least if Trump takes the matter to the Supreme Court, the market should be able to broadly climb into year end. Certainly, the short/mid term trend is supportive of higher levels in December.

I will merely add, it should be clear, there is no turning back from the dark path that the species has decided to take. Coming soon... a cashless financial system, a communistic government, and a perpetual state of viral paranoia, with no realistic hope of escaping the horror within... the twilight zone.

Yours... a spectator to humanity

 --


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Have a good weekend

--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 27 November 2020

Leaning upward into the weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +9pts (0.2%) at 3638. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -0.5%. 

sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX printing 3644, just 1pt shy of the recent historic high. The late morning saw some cooling, arguably not helped by...


The 12pm/closing hour saw the SPX turn fractionally negative to 3629, with a minor bounce in the final half hour.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX flash printing 19.51 in pre-market, and settling -1.9% to 20.84. 

*there is a minor discrepancy in the stockcharts closing prints for SPX and VIX. 
--

Clouds breaking after sunset


Full moon.... Monday Nov'30th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Thursday, 26 November 2020

Thanksgiving

A little glimpse into the land of yours truly, for what is Thanksgiving, on the eastern side of the Atlantic.

Thanksgiving sunshine


Social distancing for the societal elite


Sunset... 3.14pm GMT


Autumnal colours


Nearing 100%

I am thankful for...

My legion of >9k on Twitter.

My mini legion of subscribers/supporters, without whom I'd have stopped typing some years ago.

The mighty Pete Najarian, whom in addition to retweeting an overly generous number of my tweets, continues to inspire me to be more professional, which itself remains... a work in progress.

--


... and to J, who has always been a positive to each day. 


Yours... P
--
*the next post on this page will appear around 1.15pm EST on Fri' Nov'27th

Wednesday, 25 November 2020

Pre-Thanksgiving chop

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -5pts (0.2%) at 3629. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled -0.7%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

It was a naturally choppy day, with most indexes leaning on the weaker side.

Meanwhile...


US President Trump made a surprise call into the PA state hearing on 'election issues & irregularities'.


Further, the war between Trump and Twitter continues. The latest is that Twitter will issue a popup window for those that want to 'like' a disputed tweet.


Twitter had better hope Biden is inaugurated in January.

The afternoon saw considerable price chop into the pre-Thanksgiving close. Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling -1.8% to 21.25.

--

The moon... with Mars


Full moon... next Monday Nov'30th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Tuesday, 24 November 2020

Dow 30K

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +57pts (1.6%) at 3635. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +1.5%. The Transports settled +2.3%. 

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

It was a bullish day in equity land, with the mighty Dow finally breaking above giant psy'30k. 

Some perspective: Dow, 40yr (linear scale)

 


From a March low of 18213 to >30k, but that is after the fed cut rates to zero, and printed $3trn out of nothing. Monthly momentum has just turned positive, and is accelerating to the upside. There is little reason not to expect further upside into early 2021.

Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling -4.5% to 21.64.

--

 

Skirting the rooftops


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Monday, 23 November 2020

Yet another vaccine Monday

US equity indexes began Thanksgiving week on a positive note, SPX +20pts (0.6%) at 3577. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +1.1%. The Transports settled +1.6%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

For the third consecutive week, with another vaccine headline, it was a positive start to the week. The gains didn't last though, and its notable that the novelty of vaccine news is wearing increasingly thin. 

Meanwhile...

Phil LeBeau of CNBC

Airlines are expecting thanksgiving travel to be around half of 2019, but I guess 50% is better than nothing, right?

The afternoon saw the market re-build gains, although not able to break above the opening high. 

Volatility was subdued, the VIX printing 23.96, but settling -4.4% to 22.66.
--

Full moon is Mon' Nov'30th
 


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Saturday, 21 November 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.2% (Transports),  +0.5% (NYSE comp'), +0.2% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.7% (Dow), to -0.8% (SPX).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


Nasdaq comp'


Dow


NYSE comp'


Trans


Summary

Three indexes were net higher for the week, with two net lower.

The Transports was significantly higher, whilst the SPX was the laggard.

The Dow and Transports broke new historic highs.

Looking ahead

It will be a short 3.5 day trading week, with Thursday closed, and an early Friday closing of 1pm.

Earnings:

M - BZUN, A, URBN, NTNX, AMBA, CBT

T - BBY, DKS, DLTR, MDT, ANF, HRL, BURL, ADI, ADSK, JWN, DELL, GPS, HPQ, AEO

W - DE

T - -

F - -

-

Econ-data/events

M - Chicago Fed' Nat' act' index. PMI Manu' & Serv'

T - Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con'

W - Weekly jobs, Q3 GDP (print 2), Durable goods orders, Intl' trade, new home sales, consumer sent', pers' income/outlays.

T - *CLOSED*

F - *early closing 1pm EST*

-

Final note

With a pair of new historic highs, it was just another week for the equity bulls. Considering renewed lockdowns, and the realisation that Q1 2021 might see an economic contraction, the market is holding together very well,

There is the matter of the election of course. Whichever side of that political freakshow you might belong to, the market is clearly hoping for gridlock. I will merely add that Trump continues to be 'lightly dismissed', and for now... he IS the President of the United States of America.

In any case, further fiscal stimulus is coming at some point, and that is all that many care about these days. After all, higher equity prices mean everything is just fine with the economy, right?

 

2021 will be better than 2020, yes?

The coming week will offer some time for reflection, and be thankful for some things. Yet, it should also be a time to seriously wonder whether 2021 will be any better than this year. Do you not recognise Covid'19 will eventually evolve into Covid'20? All those vaccines produced to protect against 19, do you think they will also work for 20? Ohh, and never mind the issue of long term direct/indirect effects (positive and negative) for the vaccines, are currently unknown, as we lack any longitudinal data. But hey, I shouldn't be typing about such things, at least not here via Google.

YOU, or at least many of those around you, have decided to proceed on a path of darkness. It didn't have to be that way... but ignorance and mass hysteria have lead to this. 

Again... if you think 2021 is going to be any better than 2020, you haven't been paying attention, as humanity continues to step ever deeper into... the twilight zone.
--

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Have a good weekend

--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 20 November 2020

Leaning weak into OPEX

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -24pts (0.7%) at 3557. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -1.0%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

It was a day of considerable chop, if with some distinct cooling in the late afternoon into OPEX.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling +2.5% to 23.70. Whilst daily momentum is swinging back toward the equity bears/VIX bulls, s/t price structure is an equity bull flag... offering further new historic highs before end month.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Thursday, 19 November 2020

Mixed Thursday

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +14pts (0.4%) at 3581. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.15%. The Transports settled +0.02%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX printing 3543, but recovering to 3570.

Meanwhile...

Sidney Powell
 

Whilst the mainstream media hacks would like to believe otherwise, the US election result is yet to be finalised. Sidney Powell is one of the key people leading a charge to set things right. It should be clear, that whilst uncertainty is not a positive for the market, were Trump to achieve a second term, the market would be more than fine that it's best ever cheerleader remains in the Whitehouse.

The afternoon saw further chop... if leaning on the positive side.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -3.1% to 23.11. Friday is OPEX, so expect considerable chop.

--

Some welcome golden sunshine

 

Next full moon is Mon' Nov'30th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Wednesday, 18 November 2020

Late day cooling

US equity indexes closed on a broadly weak note, sp -41pts (1.2%) at 3567. Nasdaq comp' -0.8%. Dow -1.2%. The Transports settled -0.7%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and churned into the mid afternoon. The 2pm hour saw increasing chop, with some distinct weakness into the close. 

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +5.0% to 23.84. Thursday will inherently favour the equity bears... if only in early morning.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Tuesday, 17 November 2020

Weak leaning chop

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, sp -17pts (0.5%) at 3609. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled +0.3%. 

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened on a moderately note, with the SPX cooling to 3602.

Meanwhile...

Dorsey, p/t CEO of Twitter

Along with Zuckerberg of Facebook, Jack Dorsey of Twitter faced questions from the US Senate. Naturally, it was very political, with the left complaining certain accounts (such as Steve Bannon) haven't been deleted, whilst the right were arguing both platforms are left leaning. 

Whilst I'm no fan of Zuckerberg, I do have some sympathy for Dorsey. If you listen to the guy - he has done two extended interviews with Joe Rogan, you'll understand he is actually pretty balanced. Dorsey faces an impossible task to satisfy everyone, not least his own employees, almost all of whom are fiercely anti-Trump.

Ohh, and if President Trump doesn't have things swing his way via the courts, I'd expect him to get the boot from Twitter. If that occurred, it should be clear the algos would nuke the stock within 0.5 seconds.
-

The afternoon saw a recovery to 3623, with considerable chop, and a moderate cooling wave into the close.

Volatility picked up in early morning, but only to 24.09, the VIX settling +1.2% to 22.71. With OPEX this Friday, broad chop could be expected.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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Monday, 16 November 2020

Just another vaccine Monday

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +41pts (1.2%) at 3626. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +1.6%. The Transports settled +2.6%. 

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

Last Monday saw the market ramp on Pfizer vaccine news. Today saw the market ramp (if distinctly less) with vaccine news from Moderna. 

With the mighty Dow near 30K...


There is background chatter that both Pfizer and perhaps Moderna held back positive vaccine news until this side of the election. 

Meanwhile...

... as the degree of moral hazard in the early 21st century continues to worsen. We're not far from the point where those not in debt might be on some kind of 'financial terrorist' watchlist. 

The afternoon saw a little cooling to sp'3602, with positive leaning chop into the close.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling -2.8% to 22.45.

Perhaps the following makes more sense than anything today...

Baby Yoda... this is the way... to the ISS


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com