A positive Halloween

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +26pts (0.6%) at 4193. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K +0.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities ended the month with a considerable amount of positive leaning chop, with most indexes settling moderately higher.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -8.1% to 18.14. 

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Monday bounce

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +49pts (1.2%) at 4166. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +1.6%. The Transports settled +2.0%. R2K +0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities built significant gains across the day.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -7.1% at 19.75, as peace has once again returned to the holy land.  
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Older than any of you will reach

Darkness falls on a failed state

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -6.2% (Trans), -2.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -2.5% (SPX, R2K), -2.4% (NYSE comp'), to -2.1% (Dow). Near term outlook offers s/t capitulation.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.

The Transports lead the way down, whilst the Dow was resilient. 

Weekly momentum is increasingly negative, and will remain a restraint on ALL bounces into and across November.

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Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, an FOMC, and some key jobs data.

Earnings:

M - SOFI, MCD, ON, WDC, HSBC, JKS, XPO, PINS, RIG, AGNC, VFC

T - PFE, CAT, JBLU, CCJ, ETN, AMGN, BP, EPD, MPC, AMD, FSLR, PAYC, CZR, LUMN, LTHM, MTCH

W - NCLH, CVS, HUM, W, KHC, GNRC, EL, PYPL, ROKU, QCOM, SMCI, SEDG, ABNB, ETSY, MELI, ALB, ELF

T - PLTR, SHOP, LLY, MRNA, CROX, GOLD, PENN, CI, COP, AAPL, $SQ, DKNG, CVNA, FTNT, SBUX, COIN, PXD, NET

F - FUBO, ENB, CBOE, CAH, EOG, IEP, CNK,

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Employment cost, Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con'.

W - ADP jobs, JOLTS, ISM manu', construction, 

*FOMC announcement 2pm. Press conf' 2.30pm

T - Weekly jobs, productivity/cost, factory orders

F - Monthly jobs, ISM/PMI serv'

*UK/European clocks move back one hour as of 2am Sunday Oct'29th. The USA will follow Nov'5th.

**as Tuesday is end month, I'd expect very dynamic price action on spooky high vol'.

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Final note

The coming week threatens a mini crash. I say 'mini', as 4K would 'barely' count. Even a brief foray to the 3700/3600s wouldn't merit as a major crash. Most have little perspective on such things, getting overly hysterical on small swings of a few percent.

Regardless of what happens next week, the ultimate issue is that its beyond any doubt, that the market maxed out in July/August. The bigger monthly charts all display a clear rollover, with SPX monthly momentum having turned negative on Friday.

If you're not hearing alarm bells... maybe you need to see a doctor. For those who are hearing the bells, you know the time to prepare has long since past. Either you're ready by now... or you're out of time. 

The trading opportunities into and across 2024 will be astounding, not least for the crazy options traders who have at least some degree of risk management. 

On consideration, I think its appropriate to quote young Skywalker...

"This is where the fun begins". 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Bearish into the weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -19pts (0.5%) at 4117. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -1.1%. The Transports settled -0.7%. R2K -1.1%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were distinctly shaky, with indexes cooling back. There was a secondary push upward, if only to 4156. The afternoon saw renewed downside to break a new cycle low of 4103, and settle at 4117.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing an early low of 19.72, but rebounding to 22.07, and settling +2.8% at 21.27.
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    Fall colours

A distinct chill in the air

 

... almost full.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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A typically red Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly lower, SPX -49pts (1.2%) at 4137. Nasdaq comp' -1.8%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -1.7%. R2K +0.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little lower. There an opening reversal, but it failed, with the SPX falling into the mid afternoon. The SPX printed 4127, with a recovery to 4170, but resuming lower to settle at 4137  

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 21.89, and settling +2.4% to 20.68.
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A fine autumn day

Full moon is this Saturday

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Midweek downside

US equity indexes mostly closed very significantly lower, SPX -60pts (1.4%) at 4186. Nasdaq comp' -2.4%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -2.4%. R2K -1.7%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with the SPX cooling to 4201. There was a bounce to 4225, but a secondary wave to print a new cycle low of 4181. The late afternoon saw a very choppy bounce to settle at 4186.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 19.97, cooling to 19.26, with a secondary push to 21.24, and cooling back to settle +6.4% to 20.19.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Tuesday swings

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +30pts (0.7%) at 4247. Nasdaq comp' +0.9%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled -0.01%. R2K +0.8%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the SPX battling to 4259. From there, renewed cooling 4219, and an afternoon recovery to settle at 4247.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printed 19.19, clawing back upward to 20.14, to cool back and settle -6.9% to 18.97.
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Next full moon is Saturday Oct'28th

 
–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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A new cycle low

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -7pts (0.2%) at 4217. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled -1.5%. R2K -0.8%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with the SPX taking out the recent low of 4216, and printing 4189. From there... a bounce, if choppy, that extended into the early afternoon to 4255, and cooling back to settle at 4217.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing a (cash market) high of 22.47, if cooling back to 19.48, and settling -6.2% to 20.37

Tuesday appears prone to starting positive, but with today's new cycle low, this market is to be seen as short & mid term BROKEN. SPX 4K doesn't look overly difficult by Halloween.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -3.2% (Nasdaq comp'), -2.4% (SPX), -2.2% (R2K), -1.9% (NYSE comp'), -1.7% (Trans), to -1.6% (Dow). Near term outlook is distinctly bearish.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes settled significantly lower for the week.

The Nasdaq lead the way down, with the Dow most resilient.

The weekly candles are bearish engulfing, with an upper spike, indicative of exhausted bulls. 

Weekly momentum is increasingly negative, and will be a restraint on ALL bounces into and across November. 

Trading volume is picking up, as the mainstream cheerleaders and 'smart guys' are starting to get spooked.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - PHG, BOH, HOPE, CLF, CDNS, MEDP, LOGI, CCK

T - KO, VZ, GE, RTX, MMM, ADM, SPOT, NEE, CNC, GM, MSFT, GOOGL, SNAP, V, TDOC, TXN, BYD, RRC, WFRD

W - BA, TMO, TMUS, HLT, ADP, CNX, GD, LAD, META, IBM, NOW, ALGN, KLAC, ORLY, BKR, NLY, EW

T - RCL, UPS, HSY, MO, LUV, NOC, VLO, TSCO, MRK, NEM, AMZN, INTC, F, CMG, ENPH, SKX, X, COF, VALE

F - XOM, CVX, PSX, ABBV, CHTR, AN, CL, NWL TROW

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - Case-Shiller HPI, PMI serv', PMI manu'

W - New home sales

T - GDP Q3 (print'1), Weekly jobs, durable goods, intl' trade, pending home sales

F - Pers' income/spending, PCE, consumer sent'.

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Final note

Tuesday's reversal from sp'4393 was indeed pivotal, with the bulls unwilling to buy into the 4400s. Those watching the tick for tick price action, should have noticed the market is becoming increasing unstable. This week's VIX settlement above the key 20 threshold merits attention, as the 30s look due.

Friday's close in the SPX was decisive, not only settling under m/t rising trend - from the Oct'2022 low, but also under the daily 200MA and monthly 10MA. 

Monday looks prone to a major gap lower, with next support of psy' 4K. Below that, we've the March low of 3808, and then the 3600s. 

Even if the middle east situation doesn't escalate, the sheer technical setup for the US market leans distinctly bearish into end month. 

It is somewhat amusing that many of those just recently touting a major rally into year end, are crawling back under their dirty rocks, where they would do well to remain into 2024.

The time to prepare has passed. The next seven trading days should be extraordinarily dynamic.

Yours... with a seat at the most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino in the world.

For details>> see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

Mid term trend broken

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly lower, SPX -53pts (1.3%) at 4224. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K -1.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little weak. There was an opening reversal attempt... but it failed, with the SPX resuming lower to print 4230. The market bounced... but it was distinctly weak, maxing out at 4258, with another wave lower to 4223, and settle at 4224.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an early high of 21.83, cooling back to 20.47, and resuming upward to settle +1.4% to 21.71.
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Today's break of m/t rising trend, and the 200dma, merits alarm bells, not least when considered relative to the bigger weekly and monthly cycles. The fact we closed under both... makes it decisive.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com