Monday, 26 October 2020

Rough Monday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -64pts (1.9%) at 3400. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -2.3%. Transports -2.3%.

sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

Equities opened on a significantly weak note, with the mainstream having renewed concerns about Corona case numbers. With deep red futures, the Kudlow was not surprisingly wheeled out...

 

The Kudlow... trying to 'inspire'.
 

Meanwhile...

Mighty Trump... with a mini dance to YMCA

 

Today's lower yields, weak oil, and lower bond yields sure didn't help. The afternoon saw the market break new lows, with the SPX printing 3364, and after Pelosi stimulus chatter, recovering to settle at 3400.

Volatility naturally picked up, the VIX printing 33.68, and settling +17.8% to 32.46. 
--

Full moon is this Saturday... Halloween!


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com



Saturday, 24 October 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.9% (Dow), -0.5% (SPX), +0.2% (NYSE comp'), to +0.4% (Trans).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

 

Nasdaq comp'


Dow


NYSE comp'

 

Trans


Summary

Three indexes settled net lower, with two net higher.

The Nasdaq was weakest, whilst the Transports was most resilient. 

The Transports broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA.

 

Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, not least with a truck load of earnings and econ-data. The market will naturally also be placing attention on whether stimulus bill four can be agreed upon, and of course... the looming US election.

Earnings:

M - HAS, TWLO, CHGG, NXPI, FFIV

T - PFE, MMM, CAT, LLY, RTX, SHW, NVS, MRK, JBLU, BP, MSFT, AMD, FEYE, FSLR, AKAM

W - UPS, BA, GE, MA, SNE, ANTM, GNRC, FSLY, PINS, ETSY, GILD, TDOC, LVGO, V, F, EBAY, NOW

T -SHOP, NOK, MRNA, SPOT, OSTK, KHC, BUD, AAPL, AMZN, TWTR, FB, GOOGL ATVI, SBUX

F - XOM, ABBV, CVX, HON, MO, UAA

-

Econ-data/events

M - Chicago Fed' Nat' act', New home sales

T - Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer conf'

W - Intl' trade, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q3 (print'1), Pending home sales

F - Pers' income/outlays, employment costs, Consumer sent'

*UK/EU clocks will move back 1hr, as of 2am, Sunday Oct'26, whilst US clocks change in the early hours of Sunday Nov'1st. 

**as Friday Oct'30th will be end month, expect more dynamic price action, on considerably higher volume.

 

Final note

It was a mixed week, with the m/t bullish trend in equities remaining comfortably intact. Mr Market is distinctly twitchy though, about a lack of fresh stimulus. After all, asset bubbles require regular, and increasingly larger injections of new money... or they'll burst. Stimulus bill four is clearly going to be agreed upon, and whether its before, or shortly after the election, is frankly irrelevant.

The election is very near, and little has changed, other than societal tensions have increased another few notches. It should be clear, the market wants to have that uncertainty removed. A contested election would seriously upset the market. A foray (if very briefly) to the sp'3100/3000s is a threat before resuming broadly higher.

Yours truly holds to original best guess... a second Trump victory. Again, I could drone on for pages about the 'reasons why'. Suffice to note, the Democrat campaign is unquestionably worse than 2016, where Clinton was a far better candidate than Biden. It would be truly bizarre if Biden - who has rarely ventured outside, won against Trump, whom is holding multiple large rallies almost every day. 

 

Flying towards another victory
 

So yes, I still think Trump is on track for another victory. Personally, I'd like to see something more decisive than 2016. An increased electoral college vote >330, and also... the 'popular vote'.

Gods knows how the left will react to another Trump victory. Will it be the start of mass societal chaos, or will the marxists/communists be content to bide their time until 2024? 

Ohh, and just so there is no misunderstanding, the crazy fiscal and monetary policies that the Trump admin' have followed across the past 3.7 years, the results of that economic madness, will inevitably bear inflationary fruit sooner or later. Commodities will perhaps see the most dynamic upside in 2021, not least if a combination of higher demand, and supply side problems.

In any case, we're another day, and another week, further along the twisted and nightmarish path in... the twilight zone.
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 23 October 2020

Chop into the weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed positive, sp +11pts (0.3%) at 3465. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +1.1%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, and it didn't take long for the Nasdaq to turn red. With Mnuchin saying there were still 'significance differences' with Pelosi, the SPX cooled to 3340. 

The afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning on the fractionally upward side to 3466, and settling at 3465.

Volatility saw a high of 28.67, but melted back, the VIX settling -2.0% to 27.55.
--

A distinctly photo-shopped evening sky


Full moon will be Halloween


The Jovian system

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Thursday, 22 October 2020

Pre-debate chop

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, sp +17pts (0.5%) at 3453. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +0.2%.

sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and took a swing lower, with a bounce from key price threshold of the 3415s.

Meanwhile...


The US President issued a pre-market (7.01am EST) warning of 'Depression!'
--

The afternoon saw a swing upward to 3460, and settling at 3453.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX seeing an early minor spike to 30.12, and settling -1.9% at 28.11.

Thursday evening will see the second and final debate between US President Trump and former VP Joe Biden. Mr Market will clearly be watching. With daily equity momentum having turned negative, the setup into the weekend will lean to the bears. The wild card... any further news on stimulus from Pelosi or Mnuchin.
--

A fine autumnal sunset

Headed to the moon?

The moon... and mighty Jupiter

Full moon is Halloween


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Wednesday, 21 October 2020

Stimulus concerns

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -7pts (0.2%) at 3435. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, if leaning on the upward side.

The US President duly appeared...



Whatever you make of the above, Trump continues to place a great deal of emphasis on the US equity market.

The afternoon saw considerable chop, if leaning weak into the close.

Volatility saw an early (cash market) high of 29.88, but then cooled back, the VIX settling -2.4% to 28.65. The market is clearly concerned about the lack of an agreement on stimulus bill 4. Tomorrow is a Thursday, and that will inherently favour the bears. Things would turn 'real interesting' with a decisive break <3400.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Tuesday, 20 October 2020

Tuesday bounce

US equity indexes mostly closed moderately higher, sp +16pts (0.5%) at 3443. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +1.3%. 

sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but it was arguably just a technical rebound, after Monday's very significant downside.

The US President make an early appearance...


'If Biden wins'... economic strangulation would be the least of our problems. As things are, that nightmare scenario should remain as such, as Trump remains on track for a second term.
--

The afternoon saw considerable chop, leaning on the weaker side, on concerns that a meeting between Mnuchin and Pelosi might not end well.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +0.6% to 29.35.
--

Another sunset closer to the election


Bullish cats


Next full moon will be Halloween


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Monday, 19 October 2020

Reversal Monday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -56pts (1.6%) at 3426. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note to 3502, but turned red just after 10am. The afternoon saw increasing weakness, with the market spiraling lower to 3419. 

Meanwhile...

Trump continues a relentless series of election rallies

Volatility climbed for a sixth consecutive day, the VIX settling +6.5% to 29.18.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Saturday, 17 October 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.2% (SPX), +0.1% (Dow), -0.2% (Trans), to -0.6% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


Nasdaq comp'




Dow




NYSE comp'


Trans


Summary

Three US equity indexes were net higher, with two net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' was most resilient, with the NYSE comp' lagging.

The Transports broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I see the m/t trend as bullish.


Looking ahead

Q3 earnings will continue to pour in, whilst mainstream attention will be naturally focused on the looming election.

Earnings:

M - HAL, PHG, LOGI, IBM, STLD

T - PG, LMT, PM, TRV, NFLX, SNAP, TXN, TER, NAVI, IBKR

W - ABT, VZ, ERIC, TMO, WGO, BIIB, NEE, TSLA, CMG, LRCX, XLNX, WHR, ALGN, CSX, NTGR, DFS

T - KO, T, AAL, LUV, FCX, NOC, PHM, INTC, COF, MAT

F - CLF, AXP

-

Econ-data/events

M - NAHB home builders index

T - Housing starts

W - EIA Pet' report, Fed Beige book (2pm)

T - Weekly jobs, existing home sales, leading indicators

F - PMI manu/serv' flash.


Final note

As of Saturday, we're just 17 days from the election. 

Best guess...


The above is subject to (minor) revision/update, but I remain pretty certain that US President Trump is on track for a second term. I could reel off many reasons, but I'll save those for another time.

It should be clear, the US equity market would be pleased, if its best ever cheerleader is reelected. Regardless of who wins though, that sure won't change the economic horror that remains the case for tens of millions.

Between now and early November, the societal tension can only be expected to heighten. If you can stay at least partially mentally balanced during this time... congratulations, as we're now entering an even more bizarre part of... the twilight zone.

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 16 October 2020

Natural OPEX chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, sp +0.5pts (0.01%) at 3483. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled -1.3%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note, partly helped by European markets, but also by the corporate giants of Boeing and Pfizer. The SPX saw a mid morning high of 3515, with some late afternoon cooling, to settle effectively flat at 3483. 

Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling +1.6% to 27.41.

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Thursday, 15 October 2020

Reversal Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed a little weak, sp -5pts (0.1%) at 3483. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.8%.

sp'daily5

 


VIX'daily3

 


Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, especially dragged lower by European markets.

 

Another horrific weekly jobless print

However, the SPX was already s/t cyclically low, and 3440 was all the bears could manage. From there... price action was choppy, if leaning on the upward side into the mid afternoon.

Meanwhile...

Another day... another rally

 

The late afternoon saw further choppy upside, with the SPX briefly turning fractionally positive to 3489, and settling -5pts at 3483.

Volatility printed an early (cash market) high of 28.92, with the VIX settling +2.2% at 26.97. Friday is OPEX, and that will inherently be inclined for considerable chop. 
--

Departing soon to be 'tier 2 London'.


The first sun... in what feels like weeks


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com