Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +3.7% (Russia), +3.6% (India), +2.9% (Japan, South Africa), +2.5% (USA, Brazil), +1.9% (Germany), +1.7% (Australia), +1.5% (China), to -2.5% (Hong Kong).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

Germany – DAX

Japan – Nikkei

Brazil – Bovespa

Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX

China – Shanghai comp'

South Africa – Dow

Hong Kong – Hang Seng

Australia – AORD

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Summary

Nine world markets settled net higher for April.

Russia was the strongest market, whilst Hong Kong was the weakest.

Eight world markets are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, the two exceptions being Brazil and Russia.

Germany, China, South Africa, and Hong Kong, have net positive monthly momentum. 

Germany, India, South Africa, and Australia aren't far from breaking new historic highs.

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Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, an FOMC, and a fair amount of econ-data.

Earnings:

M - SOFI, NCLH, ON, MGM, RIG, FANG, CAR, NXPI, CF, CHGG

T - PFE, UBER, BP, MAR, MPC, STNG, LNG, CEIX, AMD, F, ET, SBUX, MTCH, CZR

W - CVS, YUM, GOLD, PSX, GNRC, EL, WWE, SPWR, QCOM, ALB, SEDG, MELI, FSLY, MRO, ETSY

T - MRNA, BUD, RCL, PTON, DDOG, COP, SHEL, APA, AAPL, SHOP, SQ, COIN, DKNG, LYFT, FTNT, CVNA, BKNG

F - AMC, WBD, FUBO, EOG, CI, ENB, INSW, GSAT

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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM manu', construction

T - JOLTS, factory orders

W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet' report

*FOMC announcement 2pm, with a press conf' at 2.30pm. Rate hike ten of 25bps to 5.00-5.25% can be expected.

T - Weekly jobs, Productivity, Intl' trade

F - Monthly jobs, consumer credit (3pm)

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

April settles

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +34pts (0.8%) at 4169. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.8%. The Transports settled +1.6%. R2K +0.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened a little weak, but saw an opening reversal to print 4170, and settle at 4169.

Volatility was ground lower into end month, the VIX settling -7.3% to 15.78.
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Goodnight from London
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A green Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +79pts (2.0%) at 4135. Nasdaq comp' +2.4%. Dow +1.6%. The Transports settled +2.6%. R2K +1.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX climbing across the entire day to 4138, and settling at 4135. Volatility was ground back lower, the VIX printing 16.62, and settling -9.6% to 17.03.

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Weak bounce

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -15pts (0.4%) at 4055. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -3.6%. R2K -0.9%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Equities opened a little higher, printing 4087, and cooling to 4061. From there, a secondary push to 4089. With an upside reversal in the dollar, there was resumed cooling to 4049, and settling at 4055.

Volatility picked up a little more, the VIX printing 19.61, if cooling back to settle +0.4% at 18.84.
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Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan (1982)

*That is as close to sunshine as I came today.

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Goodnight from London
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Breaking lower

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -65pts (1.6%) at 4071. Nasdaq comp' -2.0%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -3.6%. R2K -2.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower. There was a vain attempt to bounce, but the market slid broadly lower into the late afternoon.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 19.86, if cooling back to settle +11.1% to 18.76.
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Chilly, but sunny

 

Next full moon is May 5th

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Goodnight from London
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Monday chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX +3pts (0.1%) at 4137. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K -0.1%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opening minor chop mode, a push to 4142, and then cooling to 4117. The afternoon saw further chop, settling fractionally higher at 4137.

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling +0.7% to 16.89.
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There are a few clips out there of Oliver taking a swipe at the most famous cheerleader of all...

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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -0.4% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.2% (Dow), -0.15% (NYSE comp'), -0.1% (SPX), +0.6% (R2K), to +1.2% (Trans). Near term outlook offers some cooling of 2-3%.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

Four US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with two net higher.

The Nasdaq comp' was the weakest index, whilst the Transports was sig' higher.

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Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, with a monster truck load of earnings, and a fair amount of econ-data. 

Earnings:

M - KO, PHG, BOH, DX, BMRC, FRC, CADE, CS, CLF, WHR, AGNC, NBR, RRC

T - VZ, UPS, HAL, GM, M, GE, DOW, MMM, PEP, SPOT, RTX, NEE, DHR, JBLU, MSFT, GOOGL, ENPH, V, CMG, TXN, JNPR, BYD, LRN, PACW

W - BA, HUM, HLT, HES, TECK, ADP, TMO, GD, BSX, CVE, META, ROKU, NOW, PXD, TDOC, ALGN, URI, KLAC, NLY, ENVX

T - AAL, CAT, LLY, VLO, LUV, M, CROX, MO, ABBV, MRK, AMZN, INTC, SNAP, NET, FSLR, X, PINS, PFG, GILD, AMGN

F - XOM, CVX, CCJ, CL

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Econ-data/events

M -

T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, new home sales, consumer con'

W - Durable goods orders, intl' trade, wholesale invent', EIA Pet'

T - GDP Q1 (print'1), Weekly jobs, pending home sales

F - Employment costs, pers' income/spending, PCE, consumer sent'

*As Friday is end month, I'd expect considerable chop on higher vol'.

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Final note

It was a pretty tedious week, but with OPEX out of the way, price action should become more dynamic. In theory, we should lean on the weaker side, as we're due a retrace of 3808>4169, at minimum... the 4030s.

As things are, the bulls are set for another net bullish month. Bears need to take out 3808 to start getting confident about far lower levels.

If there is one chart you should stare at for a good hour...

The US 10yr bond yield stands at 3.57%. Price structure is a multi-month bull flag, negated if <3.00%, confirmed if >4.10%.

Rate hike TEN is due May 3rd, and that will be 25bps to 5.00-5.25%

Whilst many of the 'smart guys' and mainstream cheerleaders are calling for rate cuts in the second half, what if they are (yet again) wrong? What if instead the Fed raises rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year? That'd be another 150bps, taking rates to 6.25-6.50%.

There is an even grander issue, would the Fed give a damn if the dollar collapsed? Publicly, they claim currency rates are not an issue for them, but the reality is clearly otherwise. Rate cuts aren't going to help the dollar.

Further, even if you assume US inflation broadly declines into year end, what about if other central banks - not least the BoE and ECB, continue to raise rates, as inflation is a far bigger problem over there?

If rates are cut in the US, whilst the rate hikes continue elsewhere, this isn't going to help the dollar stay above the key DXY 100 threshold.

Ohh, and any sustained dollar weakness would raise import prices, and be another inflationary pressure on both business and the consumer.

Some are arguing 'sell in May, and go away'. I'd certainly understand if many retail traders/investors quietly walk away, and don't return until mid/late October.

For details >>> https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear around 4.20pm EST on Monday.

OPEX chop

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, SPX +3pts (0.1%) at 4133. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K +0.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

It was a day of considerable (and distinctly tedious) micro chop, but that was pretty natural, for what was OPEX.

Volatility remained repressed, the VIX settling -2.3% to 16.77.
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Venus and the crescent moon

 
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Goodnight from London
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To infinity and beyond

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -24pts (0.6%) at 4129. Nasdaq comp' -0.8%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K -0.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

The day began with...

Punch it!

Four engines down

 

'Rapid unscheduled disassembly'

Whilst it ended with a self-destruct, it was still another step forwards to getting humanity back to the moon, and then onward to Mars. The next launch of a Starship might not be until next year, as it appears a flame trench will need to be added to (multiple) launch pads.
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US equities opened moderately lower. Once again.. all the bears could manage was 4122, with a bounce to 4148. There was a secondary wave lower, to break a new intraday low of 4114, settling at 4129.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 17.69, if cooling back to settle +4.3% to 17.17.
–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com