A bearish Q3

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -54pts (1.5%) at 3585. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -1.7%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -0.7%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, not helped by the latest hot PCE data, reflective of underlying inflationary pressures. The SPX printed 3614, but then battled back upward to 3671 by 11am.

The afternoon saw renewed downside, even breaking a new cycle low of 3584, and settling at 3585.

Despite the equity declines, volatility was ground a little lower into end month/quarter, the VIX settling -0.7% to 31.62.

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Goodnight from London
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Another red Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -78pts (2.1%) at 3640. Nasdaq comp' -2.8%. Dow -1.5%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -2.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower. Partly... European markets weren't helping, and partly is was just s/t cyclical cooling. Yet... the cooling wave/retrace became something much more, with the SPX spiraling lower to break under Tuesday's low. 

The afternoon was ugly, with the SPX printing 3610, with a late afternoon recovery to 3640.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 33.46, and settling +5.5% to 31.84. Its notable that whilst equities broke a new cycle low, this was not mirrored by the VIX.
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A fine Autumn day

Next full moon is Oct'9th

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Goodnight from London
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The disintegrating UK

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +71pts (2.0%) at 3719. Nasdaq comp' +2.0%. Dow +1.9%. The Transports settled +2.5%. R2K +3.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities were sig' lower overnight/early, but then the BoE issued a press release that it was going to spool up the printers, and start buying bonds... which it did... spending around $1.1bn today on tier'1 garbage UK GILTs.

US equities rallied, largely helped by a downside reversal in the USD. The SPX battled upward, printing 3736, and settling at 3719. Today's close >3717 is significant, and offers confidence of a run to 3890/3900.

Volatility cooled back, the VIX printing (cash market) early high of 33.83, but cooling back to settle -7.4% to 30.18.
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Day five of autumn

Foreign visitors have never had a better exchange rate

 

Even the Parakeets are demanding payment in USD

The sun is setting on what is a disintegrating Kingdom

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -7pts (0.2%) at 3647. Nasdaq comp'+0.2%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +0.3%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher to 3717, but did see a full reversal, with the SPX breaking below the June low (3636) to 3623.

Meanwhile...

To their credit, CNBC are very consistent, bringing on the same old names... touting the same old nonsense, over and over... and over and over... and over again.

 

 ... even more Belski, with the Cramer...

Imagine getting paid the big bucks... for being consistently wrong, and STILL getting air time!

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The late afternoon saw a recovery, if still settling on a weak note.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 30.30, but swinging upward to 34.14, and settling +1.0% to 32.60.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Bearish GBP

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, SPX -38pts (1.0%) at 3655. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -1.1%. The Transports settled -1.1%. R2K -1.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, but considering the GBPUSD - flash printing the 1.03s, the  US and other world markets held up very well.

The afternoon saw a secondary wave lower to break a marginal lower low of 3644. The late afternoon saw a minor rally, settling at 3655.

Volatility picked up, VIX printing a (cash market) high of 32.69, if cooling back to settle +7.8% to 32.26.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -6.5% (R2K), -5.4% (Trans), -5.3% (NYSE comp'), -5.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -4.6% (SPX), to -4.0% (Dow). Near term outlook offers further downside.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes settled powerfully net lower for the week.

The R2K lead the way lower, with the Dow most resilient.

The Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports have taken out their respective June lows.

Weekly momentum is negative in the SPX, Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports. The Nasdaq comp' and R2K, can be expected to follow as of next Monday.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, with negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes are m/t bearish.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M -

T - JBIL, CBRL, BB, CALM

W - PAYX, MTN

T - BBBY, RAD, KMX, MU, NKE

F - CCL

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Econ-data/events

M - Chicago Fed Nat' Act' index

T - Durable Goods, Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con', new home sales

W - Intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA Pet'

T - GDP Q2 (print'3), Weekly jobs

F - PCE, consumer income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

*as Friday is end month/Q3, I would expect more dynamic price action on very high vol'.

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Final note

By now, you should be well aware of the increasingly loud creaking sounds, as the system is breaking.

Sometime real soon, we should see news about an institutional failure. This will likely be within Europe, and will be one of the final warnings before things turn outright scary.

In theory, Monday Sept'26th should open on a... 'problematic' note, Regardless, its been a bearish month and quarter.

If you've not yet bought your popcorn for the big event, it might be too late!

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Into the Great Fall

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -64pts (1.7%) at 3693. Nasdaq comp' -1.8%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -1.8%. R2K -2.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, largely pressured by European markets. The SPX spiraled to break a new cycle low of 3647. The afternoon saw repeated bounce attempts, with a relatively limited recovery to settle at 3693.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 32.31, if cooling back to settle +9.4% to 29.92. Whilst today was ugly, it wasn't capitulation, nor was there any real panic. That is yet to come, perhaps as early as next Monday.
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It was a red Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -31pts (0.8%) at 3757. Nasdaq comp' -1.4%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -2.3%. R2K -2.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX breaking a new cycle low of 3749. The afternoon saw considerable chop... if leaning on the upward side, with a few indexes even turning positive. The final minutes weren't pretty though, with a swing from 3789 to settle at 3757.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -2.3% to 27.35.
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The sun sets on summer 2022

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Rate hike five

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -66pts (1.7%) at 3789. Nasdaq comp' -1.8%. Dow -1.7%. The Transports settled -1.0%. R2K -1.5%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and entered a holding pattern ahead of the Fed. 

The Powell duly appeared...

... touting the usual Fedspeak nonsense.

The late afternoon saw a rally attempt, but it stalled at 3907, with a closing hour implosion to break a new multi-month low of 3789.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 30.18, cooling to 25.55, and settling +3.1% to 27.99. The s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bears, not least on a Thursday.

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Broadly weak

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -43pts (1.1%) at 3855. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -2.3%. R2K -1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, with the SPX printing 3843, just six points above yesterday's low. The afternoon saw a mini ramp... much like Monday. Still though, the US equity market remains broadly weak. Support 3700, and then 3400/3200 zone. The latter could be seen far sooner than many are considering.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +5.4% to 27.16.
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