Wednesday 31 May 2023

May settles

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -25pts (0.6%) at 4179. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -1.8%. R2K -1.0%.

SPX - daily


VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, mostly just pressured by other world markets. The SPX cooled to 4166, with a bounce into the mid afternoon to 4195, if cooling back to settle at 4179.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 18.40, if cooling back to settle +2.7% at 17.95.
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Nine cranes... with more to come.


13c/55f, as May was a distinctly cool month


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Tuesday 30 May 2023

Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX +0.07pts (0.00%) at 4205. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K -0.4%

SPX - daily


VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher on the provisional debt ceiling agreement, but the gains were shaky from the start. The SPX printed 4231, but choppily cooled to 4192. There was a late day recovery to settle effectively flat at 4205.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 18.34, but cooling back to settle -2.7% to 17.46.


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Saturday 27 May 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.5% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.3% (SPX), +0.02% (R2K), -0.04% (Trans), -1.0% (Dow), to -1.6% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Three US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with three net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' was the strongest index, whilst the NYSE comp' was the laggard.

Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week with Monday closed for Memorial day.

Earnings:

M - *CLOSED*

T - HPE, HPQ, BOX, AMBA

W - CPRI, CRWD, CRM, AI, OKTA, CHWY, JWN, VEEV, NTAP, PVH

T - DG, M, BILI, HRL, LE, DLTH, ZS, AVGO, LULU, CHPT, DELL, FIVE

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M - *CLOSED*

T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'

W - ADP jobs, JOLTS, Fed Beige book (2pm)

T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, construction, EIA Pet'

F - Monthly jobs

*As Wednesday is end month, I'd expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'. 

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Enjoy the long weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Tuesday May 30th.

Friday 26 May 2023

Upside into the long weekend

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly higher, SPX +54pts (1.3%) at 4205. Nasdaq comp' +2.2%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K +1.1%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note. Whilst there were a few minor retraces, the market built significant gains into the mid afternoon. The late afternoon saw choppy upside to 4212.87, just 0.04pts shy of last Friday's multi-month high, and cooling back to settle at 4205.

Volatility was ground lower into the long weekend, the VIX settling -6.2% to 17.95.
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Sunny, but 12c/54f sure isn't summer
 

Full moon... June 4th

 –
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Thursday 25 May 2023

A net bullish Thursday

US equity indexes closed very mixed, SPX +36pts (0.9%) at 4151. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +1.4%. R2K -0.8%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equity indexes mostly opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with the SPX cooling from 4155 to 4129. There was a secondary push upward... if very choppy, settling at 4151.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.4% to 19.14.  

Whilst a few indexes settled lower, it was to be seen as a net bullish Thursday. The only issue is whether the political hacks will announce they have a debt ceiling agreement, before... or not until after the long weekend. 
-

A fine day in late May

 

Bullish moon


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Wednesday 24 May 2023

Midweek downside

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -30pts (0.7%) at 4115. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -1.5%. R2K -1.0%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a moderately weak note, with the SPX cooling to 4108 in mid morning. From there, considerable chop, with a recovery into the late afternoon to 4132, and settling at 4115.

Volatility climbed for a fourth consecutive day, the VIX printing 20.81, if cooling back to settle +8.1% to 20.03.
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Almost a little warm

Full moon... June 4th
 –

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Tuesday 23 May 2023

Increasing concerns

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -47pts (1.1%) at 4145. Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.4%. 

SPX - daily


VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, but all the bears could manage was sp'4172, with a choppy rebound into the late morning to 4185. From there... a secondary wave lower to 4142, and settling at 4145.

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 19.31, and settling +7.7% to 18.53. 

The only issue is whether a debt ceiling agreement is reached before, or not until after the long weekend. The market isn't going to like that degree of uncertainty across a three day weekend, as the daily SPX and VIX setup favours the equity bears. 

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The Crescent moon and Venus

Full moon... June 4th
 –

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Monday 22 May 2023

Tedious Monday

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +0.65pts (0.02%) at 4192. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled +0.2%. R2K +1.2%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily


Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, and remained that way across the day, with the SPX settling effectively flat.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling +2.4% at 17.21.
-


 

Next full moon is June 4th


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Saturday 20 May 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.0% (R2K), +1.6% (SPX), +0.9% (Trans), +0.5% (NYSE comp'), to +0.4% (Dow).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

All six US equity indexes were net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way upward, whilst the Dow lagged

Looking ahead

The schedule is somewhat lighter, which will give the market more time to focus on the debt ceiling, and perhaps Russia/Ukraine.

Earnings:

M - ZIM, NIU, NAT, ZM, PETS

T - LOW, DKS, BJ, AZO, WSM, VIPS, PANW, INTU, VF, A, TOL, URBN

W - ADI, KSS, XPEV, WOOF, ANF, NVDA, SNOW, ELF, SPLK

T - BBY, DLTR, MDT, TD, BURL, RL, COST, ADSK, ULTA, MRVL, WDAY, DECK, GPS, RH, DOMO, SVM

F - BIG, DSX

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Econ-data/events

M -

T - PMI serv', PMI manu', new home sales

W - EIA Pet', FOMC mins (2pm)

T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q1 (print'2), pending home sales

F - Durable goods orders, pers' income/spending, PCE, intl' trade, consumer sent'

*As Monday May 29th is CLOSED for Memorial day, once the econ-data is out of the way, I'd expect the preceding Friday to be increasingly subdued on light vol'. 

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Final note

It was a week for the equity bulls, as many of the mainstream media hacks and 'smart guys', are pretty much back to 'everything is fine again' mode.

Whilst some of the indexes broke new highs for the year, its mostly within the big tech stock, such as NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, and META. Many other sectors are far.... far behind, not least the banks.

We didn't forget about the regional banks, did we? PacWest, Western Alliance... I could go on, but I'm sure you know many of the other names anyway. They're still all headed the way of SVB and FRC. 

I see increasing chatter about a 'Super El Nino', which bodes for some unusual and wild weather this summer (and probably stretching into 2024). Regardless of whether its extra sunny/hot, or wet/cool, you're going to need to order some extra popcorn for 'the big show'.

Its coming.


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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.