Friday, 31 July 2026

July settles

US equity indexes closed mixed, SPX +52pts (0.7%) at 7489. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.5%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and whilst there was a significant cooling wave, the bears could only manage 7399. There was a secondary push upward to 7512, and settling at 7489. 

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an early high of 18.70, but cooling back to settle -6.4% to 15.99. 



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Thursday, 30 July 2026

Thursday bounce

US equity indexes mostly closed sig' higher, SPX +121pts (1.7%) at 7437. Nasdaq comp' +2.8%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled -1.7%. R2K +1.4%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher. There was a cooling wave, but a stronger secondary push upward into the late afternoon to 7448, and settling at 7437.

Volatility was ground significantly lower, the VIX settling -17.3% to 17.09 



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Wednesday, 29 July 2026

Warsh washout

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -112pts (1.5%) at 7316. Nasdaq comp' -1.7%. Dow -2.2%. The Transports settled -1.9%. R2K -1.7%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily

Summary

Equities opened a little weak, and with a break of trend the SPX fell to 7341. The afternoon saw a bounce, with Warsh appearing at 2.30pm...


The SPX bounced to 7450, but then a powerful downward swing to 7313, and settling at 7316. 

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing a high of 20.88, but cooling back to settle +13.4% to 20.66.  

A very narrow field of view


100%

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Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Broadly stuck

US equity indexes closed mixed, SPX +15pts (0.2%) at 7429. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled -0.8%. R2K +0.2%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily

Summary

US equities opened choppy... leaning a little weak, but all the bears could manage was 7382. There was a bounce into the afternoon to 7452, and settling at 7429.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX settling -2.5% to 18.21. 

Bullish moon


Bullish air travel

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Monday, 27 July 2026

Sellers into the bounces

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +1pt (0.02%) at 7413. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled -1.8%. R2K +0.7%

SPX – daily


VIX – daily

Summary

An opening high of 7480, but gains rapidly eroded to marginally red to 7382, and settling +0.02% to 7413. Today was the latest example of big money sellers into another bounce. 

Volatility was mixed, an early low of 17.68, spiking to 19.93, settling +0.5% to 18.67.



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Saturday, 25 July 2026

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.1% (Trans), -1.0% (R2K), -0.6% (SPX), -0.4% (Dow), to +0.7% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Five US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with one net higher.

The Nasdaq lead the way down, whilst the NYSE comp' was moderately higher.

Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with another truck load of earnings, and an FOMC that might see rates raised. 

Earnings:

M - $AZN $BKR $BOH $ARLP $NE $KOF $HBT $PERF $BMRC $HOPE $APLD $NVTS $CLS $NUE $RMBS $ESI $AMKR $UHS $WHR $FFIV

T - $PYPL $BA $KO $UPS $DINO $GLW $JBLU $HUBB $CVLT $RCL $V $F $STX $ENPH $BE $KLAC $TER $TLRY $CAR $CAKE  

W - $PG $SOFI $BSX $VRT $GNRC $FLEX $CTSH $ADP $HUM $MSFT $META $HOOD $ARM $QCOM $LRCX $CMG $AEM $FTNT $ORLY

T - $BMY $CI $MA $VLO $MO $STLA $PWR $OWL $RACE $AAPL $AMZN $RBLX $RDDT $AXTI $MTZ $DRH $RIVN $MMSI $HUN

F - $XOM $CVX $D $CCJ $MRNA $AN $ABBV $MGA $CHD $CL 

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Econ-data/events

M - Durable goods orders

T - Wholesale & retail inventories, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf', 

W - 2pm FOMC announcement. 2.30pm Press conf'

T - Q2 GDP (print'1), Pers' income/outlays, PCE, Weekly jobs, 

F - Employment costs, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'. 

*As Friday is end month, I'd expect dynamic price action on higher vol'.  

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Friday, 24 July 2026

Moderate swings into the weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, SPX +3pts (0.05%) at 7411. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled -0.4%. R2K -0.3%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily



Summary

US equities opened a little choppy. All the bears could manage was a marginal low of 7397, bouncing to 7460, afternoon cooling to 7396, and settling fractionally higher at 7411. 

Volatility saw a few swings, the VIX printing a low of 17.41, swinging to 18.94, and settling -0.6% to 18.58.



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Thursday, 23 July 2026

A red Thursday

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -90pts (1.2%) at 7408. Nasdaq comp' -2.1%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -0.1%. R2K -0.6%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily

Summary

Equities opened significantly lower, not helped by soaring oil. The SPX printed 7386, if recovering to settle at 7408. 

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 20.31, and settling +12.4% to 18.70.

A fine summer's day
 
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Wednesday, 22 July 2026

The tedium continues

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -10pts (0.1%) at 7498. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow -0.01%. The Transports settled -0.3%. R2K -0.9%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily


Summary

US equities saw considerable minor chop, if settling on a weak note. 

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling -2.4% to 16.64.  



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Tuesday, 21 July 2026

Summer doldrums

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +65pts (0.9%) at 7509. Nasdaq comp' +1.3%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +0.9%. R2K +1.5%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and whilst the early gains were a little shaky, s/t momentum turned positive, carrying the market upward to 7515, and settling broadly higher at 7509.

Volatility was ground lower for a second day, the VIX settling -8.6% to 17.05. 

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A new tower core has begun

 

21c/70f is Goldilocks


Another day... settles
 



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Monday, 20 July 2026

Lower on the failed ceasefire

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -14pts (0.2%) at 7443. Nasdaq comp' -0.05%. Dow -0.6%. The Transports settled -1.2%. R2K -0.5%

SPX – daily

VIX – daily


Summary

Equities opened positive, but it didn't take long for a few indexes to turn red. The afternoon saw renewed adverse war headlines, with even the SPX turning red, settling at 7443.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing a low of 17.41, but recovering to settle -0.6% to 18.65. 



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Saturday, 18 July 2026

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.9% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.5% (SPX), -0,9% (Dow), -0.7% (R2K), -0.4% (NYSE comp'), to +2.5% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Five US equity indexes were lower for the week, with one net higher.

The Nasdaq was rather powerfully lower, whilst the Transports was very significantly higher. 

Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - $AMC $DPZ $RYAAY $SMBK $CCK $BOKF $STLD $WRB $ZION $CALX $WASH $WTFC $AGNC $MCRI 

T - $HAL $VICR $ALLY $DHI $SCHW $GM $MMM $VMI $MSCI $ALK $EWBC $NLY $AIR $EQT $RRC $NPB $WAL $PEGA $HWC 

W - $GEV $T $PM $TNL $WAB $TEL $PHM $IRDM $MCO $FBP $TSLA $GOOGL $IBM $NOW $TXN $KMI $TCBI $SLG $CCI $CSX 

T - $NOK $CLF $AAL $HBAN $FCX $STM $BX $CX $LMT $TSCO $INTC $MXL $DECK $NEM $COLB $BYD $SLM $SAM $RNG $JAKK

F - $VZ $CHTR $AXP $NEE $CNI $BAH $LW $SLB $HCA $CPF 

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Econ-data/events

M - Leading indicators 

T - 

W - EIA Pet' report

T - Weekly jobs

F - PMI manu' & serv', new home sales

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Final note

A net bearish week for the collective of US equities, but nothing that merits any hysteria. Its mostly just multi-week chop... a little below recent historic highs.

Whilst I struggle to see a new historic high (this side of Labor day), even if we do, I'd still look for some degree of washout ahead of the midterms. The only issue is whether its a basic correction of around 10%, or something bigger... 15%, or even 20/25%. The latter looks a real stretch unless a major 'adverse event' occurs. The middle east and the Ukraine comes to mind.

Anyway, earnings are set to broadly come in fine. The econ-data is mostly non-recessionary, if skewed by monstrous Govt' deficit spending.
 
Ohh, and I shall be net bullish equities unless the Fed cut rates. It is ironically the case that higher rates would be inherently bullish for equities, especially the financials. I continue to expect a hike in Sept' and Dec'. 

... as episode 2026 of Planet Krazy continues. 
 

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Monday.

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The mighty Dow 30... 
 


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The metals and miners...

 
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Broad array of stocks...