It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +3.5% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.9% (SPX), +0.7% (Dow), +0.4% (NYSE comp'), -0.9% (Trans), to -1.0% (R2K).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Four US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with two net lower.
The Nasdaq comp' was powerfully higher, whilst the two leaders - Trans/R2K, were broadly lower.
The SPX and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.
Five indexes are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, and have positive monthly price momentum. The exception being the Transports.
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Looking ahead
It will be the formal start of Q2 earnings season. Mr Market will be especially focused on the latest inflation data, as some are still hoping for at least one rate cut before year end.
Earnings:
M - $GBX
T - $HELE $BYRN $SGH $KRUS $SAR
W - $THTX $MANU $WDFC $PSMT $AZZ $ETWO
T - $PEP $DAL $CAG $BSVN
F - $JPM $WFC $C $BK $FAST $ERIC
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Econ-data/events
M - Consumer credit (3pm)
T - NFIB Optimism
W - Wholesale invent', EIA Pet'
T - CPI, weekly jobs, US T-budget
F - PPI, consumer sent'.
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Final note
A couple of new historic highs made it a net bullish week, as the m/t trend from Oct'2023 remains strong. I'd accept the two leaders - Trans/R2K, are still lagging, and the bears can argue the other indexes are increasingly short/mid term overbought. A 10% correction before the election appears probable.
Q2 earnings should come in broadly fine, the only concern should be a somewhat weaker outlook, as the US/global consumer is arguably still increasingly broken.
My primary fear remains geo-political. By definition, such events are difficult to pinpoint... unless you own a DeLorean. The French will see partie deux of the election this Sunday, with Ms. Le Pen set to gain power. With Starmer becoming the UK Prime Minister, things are certainly changing across Europe.
Just be sure to have enough drinks and popcorn... for the big show!
Summer subscription offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EDT on Monday.
