It was a bearish month for the collective of world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -8.4% (Hong Kong), -5.7% (South Africa), -5.2% (China), -5.0% (Brazil), -3.0% (Germany), -2.5% (India), -2.4% (USA), -1.7% (Japan), -1.4% (Australia), to +0.2% (Russia).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Nine world equity markets were net lower for August, with one net higher.
Hong Kong lead the way down, whilst Russia was marginally positive.
Seven markets are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, the three exceptions being China, South Africa, and Hong Kong.
Seven markets have positive monthly momentum, the three exceptions being China, South Africa, and Australia.
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Looking ahead
It will be a short four day trading week, with Monday CLOSED for Labor day.
Earnings:
M - *CLOSED*
T - CRMT, ZS, ASAN, HQY
W - AI, PATH, GME, CHPT, PLAY, AEO
T - SAIC, TTC, ABM, DOCU, PL, RH
F - KR
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Econ-data/events:
M - *CLOSED*
T - Factory orders
W - Intl' trade, ISM serv', Fed Beige book (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Productivity, EIA Pet' and NG reports
F - Wholesale invent', consumer credit (3pm)
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Final note
The setup into the fall is very mixed. The s/t cyclical setup leans bearish, having seen cooling from 4607 to 4335, and a bounce to 4541. Yet the bounce makes for a back test of broken rising trend (from the March low of 3808). Friday's daily candle was black, which leans s/t bearish, at least for part of Tuesday.
The m/t trend remains unquestionably bullish. At the same time, the August monthly candle for the SPX was a hanging man, which leans bearish for September, and arguably more so into October.
WTIC climbed by +7.2% last week to the $85s. Technically, its open air to the $93s, and then giant psy' $100. The latter looks possible before year end, even without any of the 'wild cards' (such as China/Taiwan) occurring.
There is still some degree of AI hysteria, with the Cramer, aka Mr Inverse, now touting ARM, set to IPO sometime soon. Maybe that will be delayed though, due to possible forthcoming 'adverse market conditions' ?
Back to the near term...
To me, it merely comes down to whether rising trend from the Oct'2022 low of 3491 is broken.
As of Sept'1st, rising trend was around 4210.
As of Sept'18th, it will be around 4240, with the 200dma around 4180.
Any daily close under the 200dma would merit alarm bells, with the market prone to spiraling. Until such time though, the mainstream cheerleaders and 'smart guys', can rightly tout the market as m/t bullish.
For the record, I do expect a test of m/t rising trend in the mid 4200s, within the next few weeks. Whether it holds though, I can't say, as my DeLorean is in the shop for repairs.
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Enjoy the holiday weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on Tuesday, Sept'5th.
