It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -7.4% (Transports), -5.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -5.0% (SPX), -4.6% (Dow), -4.4% (NYSE comp'), to -4.3% (R2K).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes were net lower for the week.
The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way lower, whilst the R2K was most resilient.
More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly
10MA, and have increasingly negative momentum. By definition, all six
indexes are m/t bearish.
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Looking ahead
Earnings:
M - ORCL
T -
W -
T - KR, JBL, ADBE
F -
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - Small business index, PPI
W - Retail sales, Empire State manu', Busi' invent, EIA Pet'
*2pm FOMC announcement, which should see rate hike'3 of +50bps announced, with a reiteration of the QT program.
2.30pm Press conf. with Powell, it will be interesting to see if any of the mainstream media hacks start throwing some curve balls toward the CEO of Print Central.
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, Phil' Fed Manu'
F - Indust' prod', leading indi'. *OPEX*
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Final note
There is much I could say... but more than anything, it should be clear... the US equity market remains m/t broken. We have been broadly stair stepping lower since late 2021/early 2022, and whilst there are sporadic multi-week bounces, it just results in another lower low.
Friday's CPI was on the hot side, and it should be asked, how high are prices headed? Do you think we're at/near 'peak inflation' ?
There is zero reason not to expect food and energy prices to climb into and across this summer. Just think about the implications for the US, but also... global consumer.
There is also the matter of the global food supply, but hey... that will probably soon be added to the list of 'things you can't say' on GOOGL, TWTR, or META.
One of the last indirect warnings we'll probably get is when Biden - or his PR/spokesperson, says something along the lines of 'There is no need for concern, the food supply is tight right now, but we're taking measures to ensure Americans will have what they need into the winter'.
If you don't hear a ticking clock, you're not paying attention. The window of opportunity closes around late Sept'. Choosing to do nothing... is a choice in itself.
For more of the same...
For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
