June, Q2, and H1 settle

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -33pts (0.9%) at 3785. Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. Dow -0.8%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K -0.7%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a rather ugly note, with the SPX spiraling to 3738. There was a strong recovery to u/c (3818), with the afternoon seeing renewed weakness... if holding above the morning low.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 30.22, if cooling back to settle +1.9% to 28.71.
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Considerably more green than the US market

 

H1 was a pot of gold (or honey) for the bears

Sunshine before the next storm

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Midweek chop

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -2.7pts (0.1%) at 3818. Nasdaq comp' -0.03%. Dow+0.3%. The Transports settled -0.4%. R2K -1.0%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, and remained that way across the day. After yesterday's big drop, today is to be seen as a relative victory for the bears, as a s/t cyclical bounce was restrained.

Volatility was itself muted, the VIX settling -0.7% to 28.16.

Tomorrow is set to be real interesting. Thursday will inherently favour the bears, but it will be end month/Q2/H1, and there will be at least some attempt to 'window dress'.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Turnaround Tuesday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -78pts (2.0%) at 3821. Nasdaq comp' -3.0%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -1.7%. R2K -1.8% 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a broadly positive note, with the SPX printing a new s/t high of 3945. However, the sellers appeared, with Nasdaq leading the way lower. 

The SPX slid into the later afternoon, settling -2.0% to 3821... tagging orange gap.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +5.2% to 28.36.
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Much like the market... every sky is unique, never to be repeated.

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Monday chop

US equity indexes mostly closed a little weak, SPX -11pts (0.3%) at 3900. Nasdaq comp' -0.8%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -0.3%. R2K +0.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities saw considerable chop, if mostly leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility was itself pretty subdued, the VIX settling -1.0% to 26.95.
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–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +7.5% (Nasdaq comp'), +6.4% (SPX), +6.0% (R2K), +5.4% (Dow), +5.3% (Trans), to +5.1% (NYSE comp')

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, whilst the NYSE comp' was the laggard.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, and have increasingly negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes are m/t bearish.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - NKE

T -

W - BBBY, GIS, PAYX, NG

T - WBA, STZ, AYI, MU

F -

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Econ-data/events

M - Durable goods orders, pending home sales

T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer conf'

W - Q1 GDP (print'3), EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/spending, Chicago PMI

F - ISM/PMI manu', construction

*As Thursday is end month, Q2, and the first half, I'd expect more dynamic price action on very high volume.

**With Monday July 4th CLOSED for Independence Day, the preceding Friday will be inclined for subdued trading on very light volume.
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Final note

A bullish week, but do you believe sp'3636 is a key mid term floor? Have you seen capitulation yet? Sure... you could argue some of the ex-hysteria stocks - such as RBLX, have floored, but the main market doesn't look like it has.

The equity bulls have two monstrously problematic data points ahead in July. The first is the next CPI (due July 13th), and that should remain hot. The second is Q2 GDP (due July 28th), which should confirm the US economy has been in recession since January. 

Its extremely difficult to see the market not breaking new cycle lows in July, with both of those econ-data points set to remind the mainstream cheerleaders and 'smart guy' analysts that things are increasingly difficult.

There are just so many other problems out there, not least fertiliser and crop yields, which appear set to decline for some years. Ohh, and what about the Diesel and DEF issue? I'd hope most of you are aware of the latter. 

Regardless of how June settles, July/Q3/H2, should see further market drama, but hey... who doesn't love some drama?

For more of the same... well, you know where to find me.

For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Looking ahead

The short week began on a very positive note, the SPX settling +90pts (2.4%) to 3764. Meanwhile, WTIC settled +$1.53 (1.4%) to $109.52.

sp'weekly2

WTIC daily

Summary

SPX: a positive start to the week, but we've seen this many times across this year... for what is just another bounce. There is ZERO reason not to still seek primary target of around 3500.

WTIC: a sig' net daily gain, partly helped by the positive equity market, but also the moderately weaker dollar. Momentum still ticked lower, and remains on the low side. Oil bulls need have no sleepless nights unless the $93s are lost. A challenge of the March $130s still looks on track.

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Looking ahead

Wednesday has no econ-data of note.

Earnings: WGO, KBH, FUL

Event: Powell, speaking to the US Senate, and that will likely drag on for 2-3hrs, and garner considerable live coverage on CNBC.

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PF chart of the day

Computer has a bearish target of the $63s, which looks realistic within July.

AMD, monthly

AMD settled today +2.7% to $83.79, but still net lower for June by a horrific -17.7%. Note the lower monthly bollinger in the $60s, and that is prime target for July. Superb company/products, but its m/t broken with the main market, as there is ZERO reason not to expect a lower low in July.

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Final note

The day began with...

Twitter had flagged up THIS very blog as 'unsafe'. It wouldn't even let me post a tweet with my url in it. Anyone who clicked on ANY prior tweet with the url would receive the following...

I consider the matter one of libel/defamation, and I will duly sue Twitter.
I'll also pick up a legacy issue with Twitter, on the matter of C19.
The starting number for compensatory and punitive damages will be at least $15000.

I'll be sure to ask for some 'audience' comments in the coming days, which will be submitted as part of my case to the judge in early 2023. 

Unless I die before then of course. I'd imagine Twitter could decide to arrange me to have an 'unfortunate accident' in the coming days. It'd certainly fit with their ongoing campaign of censorship, deplatforming, libel, and abuse, against those who don't agree with the various narratives.
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Subscriber note...

With https://www.subscriber.tradingsunset.com , I'll resume there tomorrow morning.

Goodnight from London

VIX and Index update

 US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +90pts (2.4%) at 3764. Nasdaq comp' +2.5%. Dow +2.1%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +1.8%. 

sp'daily5

nasdaq comp'

r2k

transports

Summary

SPX: Opening significantly higher, pushing to 3379, settling +89pts (2.4%) to 3764. S/t price structure leans to the bulls. Green gap looks just about viable... before resuming lower. A tag of red gap would be a minimum downside target in the next down wave.

NAS: a second day higher, settling +2.5% to 11069. Bearish to around psy'10k. There are even a few within the mainstream that have been touting 9k.

R2K: settling +1.8% to 168.13. Having recently exceeded primary target of the 166s, next target is around 150, which will arguably sync with sp'3500/400s.

Trans: settling +1.5% to 13061. Primary target remains around 12000.

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VIX'daily

With positive equities, volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -3.0% to 30.19. Broadly though... we're still dealing with a very elevated VIX, reflective of an equity market that is prone to regular 2-3% swings. A spike into the 40s, if not the 50s looks realistic with equity capitulation in July.

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Looking ahead by 6pm EST

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +90pts (2.4%) at 3764. Nasdaq comp' +2.5%. Dow +2.1%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +1.8%.

sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: considerable minor chop, if leaning a touch weak. S/t momentum weakened... but only a little, as green gap looks viable (with red VIX gap), before 'normal service' resumes.
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… and that concludes Tuesday. It was day for the bulls, but it only retraces around half of last week's declines. 

*I see my webhost has finally awoken from a coma, so I guess I'll be posting as normal tomorrow. Or maybe I'll get lucky and die in my sleep.

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notable stock: COIN

Partly higher with the main market, partly with Bitcoin. Still m/t horror. I'd imagine Ms. Wood of ARK was averaging down some more today.

 

The latter which printed the $17000s, makes little sense as a key m/t floor. More natural would be 13/12k. Today's bounce was WEAK.
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notable stock: K

Another company where the board ran out of ideas, and have decided to split the company into three. They get paid the big money for that degree of desperation. Today's gains... mostly faded, as even the market isn't buying this kind of nonsense.

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notable bond ETF: TLT

A rough start to the week for bonds... as yields climbed. M/t horror.

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notable fin: BAC

Just bouncing with the main market. Bulls have NOTHING until >50dma.
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more later on the VIX and Indexes... probably by 4.30pm EST

3pm update - into the close

US equities are set for very significant net daily gains, but it makes for just a retrace/bounce of last week's rather severe net weekly declines.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

S/t price structure is a baby bull flag, offering further upside on Wed'.
I'd note VIX orange gap has fully filled, and that just leaves red gap... which would arguably sync with SPX green gap.

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notable Dow component: AAPL

Even teal gap looks a stretch. 125/120 zone looks pretty easy.
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notable stock: AMZN

Nothing has changed. An eventual loss of psy' $100 will offer capitulation 85/80.
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notable weakness: META

... all this... without the market's realisation that the Metaverse will likely amount to nothing.
Much like yours truly.
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notable steel: CLF

Absolutely lousy relative to the main market. Monthly offers support 12/11.

back at the close...

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities are choppy, if very significantly higher. Meanwhile, the precious metals are moderately higher, Gold -$2 (0.1%), with Silver +0.3%. The miner ETF of GDX is currently +0.8% at $30.62.

GLD daily

SLV daily

GDX daily

Summary

Gold/GLD: $1837.... tedious... for what is a short/mid term mess. All those gold bugs touting hyper bullish targets have nothing... until >$2100s.

Silver/SLV: silver is printing the $21.70s, a s/t mess until >$25.50. Bulls need >psy' $30 to have confidence the m/t chop-fest is over.

GDX: miners higher with gold/silver, but the gains are weak... especially relative to the main market.

*I hold long the sector via GOLD, AG, HL, KGC.

notable miner: GOLD

 

 A short/mid term mess.
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notable miner: FCX

 

Last week's copper loss of $4.00 merits alarm bells.
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Equities: sp'60min

We have a provisional cyclical rollover, but I don't trust it. S/t price structure is a baby bull flag, threatening green gap. That won't be easy though.