Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish month for US equity indexes, with net December declines ranging from -8.7% (Nasdaq comp'), -8.6% (Trans), -6.5% (R2K), -5.9% (SPX), -4.2% (Dow), to -3.8% (NYSE comp').

It was a bearish year for US equity indexes, with net 2022 declines ranging from -33.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -20.4% (R2K), -19.4% (SPX), -18.7% (Trans), -11.5% (NYSE comp'), to -8.8% (Dow).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net lower for December. The Nasdaq comp' lead the way lower, whilst the NYSE comp' was most resilient. All six indexes have negative monthly momentum. Five indexes are under their monthly 10MA, the exception being the Dow.

All six US equity indexes settled net lower for 2022. The Nasdaq comp' lead the way lower, whilst the Dow was most resilient.

The SPX, Dow, and NYSE comp' broke new historic highs... all in January.

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Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week, with Monday CLOSED.

Earnings: -

-

Econ-data/events

M - *CLOSED*

T - PMI manu', construction

W - ISM manu', JOLTS, vehicles sales, FOMC mins (2pm)

T - ADP jobs, Weekly jobs, intl' trade, PMI serv'

F - Monthly jobs, ISM serv', factory orders

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Final note

The year settled on an appropriately bearish note. Whilst the mainstream cheerleaders and 'inflation is transitory' smart guys are hopeful 2023 will be better, the outcome is likely to be rather different.

It should be clear, 2022 never saw any panic or associated capitulation. This past year has merely seen equities stair step lower.

If I'm right about anything in 2023, it should be that we'll see panic and capitulation. I'd accept not all bear markets see it, but most do.

Perhaps the only thing to ask is... do you have enough popcorn and drinks for the big show?

For the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely be the monthly/yearly settlements for ten of the World equity markets (due Sunday).

A bearish 2022 settles

US equity indexes settled 2022 on a weak note, SPX -9pts (0.2%) at 3839. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -0.8%. R2K -0.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX printing 3806, and after numerous bounce attempts, the afternoon saw further downside to 3800. There was a late afternoon mini ramp, if still settling a little weak to 3839.

Volatility remained broadly muted, the VIX settling +1.1% to 21.67. 

*I'll cover all the key monthly/yearly settlements across the three day break.
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Hazy night skies

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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A rebounding Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +65pts (1.7%) at 3849. Nasdaq comp' +2.6%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +2.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, and built very significant gains into late morning. The afternoon saw considerable minor chop, which was arguably just bullish consolidation. 

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling -3.2% to 21.44.
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A sunny, if chilly late December day.

The moon and Jupiter

Full moon is January 6th 2023

No sign of SpaceX Starships

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Midweek weakness

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -46pts (1.2%) at 3783. Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. Dow -1.1%. The Transports settled -1.7%. R2K -1.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode...  saw a touch of weakness... but then an upside reversal to 3848... if only to fade, broadly slide into the close to print 3780, and settling at 3783. The close under yesterday's low of 3813 makes for a bearish engulfing candle, which doesn't bode so great for a Thursday.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX settling +2.3% to 22.14.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

The final few days

US equity indexes mostly closed a little weak, SPX -15pts (0.4%) at 3829. Nasdaq comp' -1.4%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.6%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but saw an early swing lower. Yet... all the bears could muster was a brief foray to 3813, before a rebound to 3846. The afternoon saw renewed weakness, but broadly... the price action was subdued, and outright tedious. More a case of 'post Christmas chop' than anything.

Volatility remained relatively subdued, the VIX settling +3.7% to 21.65.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to my readers, Twitter followers, and subscribers across the world.

 

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Christmas is for movies...

Rare Exports (2010)

Krampus (2015)

Trading Places (1983)

 

 Die Hard (1988)

 --

... and there is the Christmas review from the hack-frauds of Redlettermedia

 
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*the next post on this page... around 5pm EST, Tuesday, Dec'27th

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.9% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.3% (Transports), -0.2% (SPX), +0.01% (R2K), +0.9% (Dow), to +1.1% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

Three US equity indexes were net higher, with three net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way down, whilst the NYSE comp' was the most resilient.

Last week's bearish engulfing candles played out in all six indexes, even though three indexes settled net higher for the week.

–

Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week, with Monday CLOSED in observance of Christmas Day.

-
Earnings: none
-

Econ-data/events

M - *CLOSED*

T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI

W - Pending home sales

T - Weekly jobs, EIA Pet' & NG reports.

F - Chicago PMI

As Friday is the last trading day of the year, I would expect very dynamic price action on extremely high vol'.
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Christmas Eve

Final note

With last week's bearish engulfing candles playing out, its to be seen as a net bearish week.

Many are naturally looking ahead, with a focus on what the fed will do. Yet there are a great many other important variables, of which most choose to be in denial about. Whether its China/Taiwan, the increasingly loud war drums between the west and Russia, or the intentional reduction in global food supply. The Fed simply aren't the be-all of the global capital markets. 

If a major war breaks out, do you think anyone will care if the Fed raise or lower rates by 25bps? The mainstream remain bizarrely complacent...

... as typified by the Tom Lee...

Whilst Lee is calling for a collapse in volatility, yours truly will comfortably take the other side of that trade. I have to expect a surge in volatility, with increasingly wild equity price action. Q4 earnings - due to begin around Jan'12th won't be pretty, and then Mr Market is going to have to price in a 'difficult' 2023. 

Further... virtually no one is considering a secondary multi-month up wave in inflation. How do you think the market will react if headline CPI is back >8% by mid year? Even if inflation broadly cools to 4%... that is another 4% that the consumer loses in purchasing power. 

The cheerleaders can tout all they want about how inflation will be lower, but its just another baseless 'everything will be fine' narrative, as much as it was for 'inflation is transitory'. They are broadly clueless, and to be derided as such. 

2022 was a tough year. It should be clear... 2023 will be tougher. 

Christmas offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

A Tesla Red Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -56pts (1.4%) at 3822. Nasdaq comp' -2.2%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -1.0%. R2K -1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, as the market saw the GDP data as 'good news is bad news'. There were numerous other pressures, not least Micron and AMC. The SPX spiraled into the early afternoon, printing 3764. There was a late afternoon recovery to settle at 3822. 

Volatility picked up, the VIX printing 24.30, if cooling back to settle +9.5% to 21.97.

The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for Christmas EveEve.
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Ohh, and as for Tesla...

Tesla printed the $122s, the lowest since Sept'2020. The giant H/S threatens the $33s. Yes, its 'crazy talk', but its $69 less crazy than end November. Despite what some say... its just a car manufacturer.
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A little inspiration... above the tip of South Africa

Bullish space tools for the new solar panels

 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Christmas offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Midweek strength

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +56pts (1.5%) at 3878. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. Dow +1.6%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +1.7%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the market battling upward into the afternoon. The mid/late afternoon saw considerable chop, if settling sig' higher.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX settling -6.6% to 20.07.
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Moody skies

The sun has set on the Autumn

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Christmas offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Choppy Tuesday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +3pts (0.1%) at 3821.  Nasdaq comp' +0.01%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -1.3%. R2K +0.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode... if leaning weak to break a new cycle low of 3795.

From there... a recovery, if choppy, into the late afternoon, with most indexes settling a little higher. The 'old leader' - Transports, was notably significantly lower.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX settling -4.2% to 21.48.
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Always good work from 'AfterSkool'...

There are a fair number of post C19 mandate traumatised humans, who would be more than willing to become BORG.
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Winter solstice Eve

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Christmas offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Monday weakness

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -34pts (0.9%) at 3817. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -1.3%. R2K -1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode... saw a failed rally attempt, with the SPX swinging lower to break below last Friday's low of 3827... as last week's bearish engulfing candles played out. The afternoon saw further downside to print 3800.04, with a minor rally into the close.

Volatility was itself muted, the VIX settling -0.9% to 22.42. 

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Christmas offers >> https://www.tradingsunset.com