It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +26.6% (Hong Kong), +9.2% (South Africa), +8.9% (China), +8.6% (Germany), +5.9% (Australia), +5.7% (USA), +3.9% (India), +1.4% (Japan), +1.2% (Russia), to -3.0% (Brazil).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Nine world equity markets were net higher for November, whilst one was net lower.
The Hong Kong market lead the way up, whilst the Brazilian market lagged.
The Indian market broke a new historic high.
The USA, Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, South African, and Australian markets are trading above their respective monthly 10MA. Only the Russian, Chinese, and Hong Kong markets could be seen as 'bear markets'.
All ten markets still have negative monthly momentum.
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Looking ahead
A pretty light week is ahead...
Earnings:
M -
T - AZO, SIG, S, SWBI, CASY, SFIX, TOL
W - LOVE, CPB, GME, RENT
T - COST, LULU, AVGO, DOCU, CHWY, MTN
F - LI
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Econ-data:
M - PMI/ISM serv', factory orders
T - Intl' trade
W - Productivity/costs, EIA Pet', Consumer credit (3pm)
T - Weekly jobs
F - PPI, consumer sent', wholesale invent'.
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Final note
November was certainly a month for the equity bulls, with most markets settling above multiple aspects of key resistance. Whilst the macro outlook for 2023 remains ugly, the mainstream are increasingly confident that the central banks have everything under control. This confidence (or rather... delusion) has been reflected in the VIX printing the 18s.
The s/t setup favours the bulls into early January. By default... no shorts, with the bolder bulls buying/adding on any cooling waves.
I for one don't expect the Fed to achieve a 'soft landing' in 2023. My view is somewhat skewed, as I reside in the failed state of the UK, where even the conservative BoE expect a recession to stretch from the present all the way into early 2024. For the UK populace... the pain is only just beginning.
Some are still calling ongoing price action in the US market as a 'bear market rally'. I'd strongly disagree, as we're no longer below key aspects of resistance, such as the daily 200MA and the monthly 10MA. Most indexes/sectors settled November decisively above key resistance.
Now its arguably just a case of how high we can reach. Any price action above sp'4110 would be decisive, and offer open air to the low/mid 4300s by mid/late January. From there... maybe it will turn interesting again.
For details... https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
