It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +8.1% (Nasdaq comp'), +8.0% (Trans), +5.9% (SPX), +4.6% (R2K), +4.4% (NYSE), to +4.1% (Dow).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts).
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes saw powerful net weekly gains.
The Nasdaq lead the way up, with the Dow trailing.
More broadly, all six indexes are currently net higher for the month. The Dow, NYSE comp', R2K, and Transports are above their respective monthly 10MA. All six indexes still have negative monthly momentum.
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Looking ahead
Earnings:
M - TSN, SNDL, ASTS
T - WMT, HD, SE, DNUT, TME, VVV, AAP
W - TGT, LOW, TJX, ZIM, NVDA, CSCO, SBLK, SONO, BBWI
T - BABA, M, KSS, BJ, DOLE, PANW, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, WSM, ROST
F - JD, FL, BKE
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - PPI, Empire State manu'
W - Retail sales, import/export prices, indust' prod', busi' invent', Home builders index, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, building permits, Phil' Fed manu', EIA Natgas
F - Existing home sales, leading indicators. *OPEX*
*As Friday is OPEX, I would expect considerable chop on higher vol'. In theory, we could look for the market makers to seek a pin around sp'4K.
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| Sunset... in the failed state of the UK |
Final note
It was a powerfully bullish week, with some indexes breaking above key price thresholds. As ever, a 'brief foray' above such levels is tolerable. The equity bears should be seeking a November settlement somewhat below current levels.
Q. Does anyone seriously believe we have a key m/t floor in equities?
On what justification? The economy, or on the notion that the Fed will soon cut rates and spin up the printers?
The snows are only just starting to fall in North America and Europe. Consumer sentiment should be expected to increasingly deteriorate into year end, not least as inflation is making life hellish for many.
Here in the land of yours truly, Q3 was recessionary, with even the BoE expecting it to last into 2024. Just how bad will things be by spring 2023, never mind 2024?
Then there are the wild cards, with literally hundreds of smaller ones. Some have already played out, such as FTX imploding. It will only take one big one to become the excuse for a major crash wave. China/Taiwan is arguably the prime one, but I'd be more inclined to look to one of the giant European financials (such as CS and DB) imploding.
In any case, between now and year end, we really ought to see some renewed 'market drama'. For now, popcorn is still available in your local store, as its time to place another order.
For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
