November settles

US equity indexes closed rather powerfully higher, SPX +122pts (3.1%) at 4080. Nasdaq comp' +4.4%. Dow +2.2%. The Transports settled +1.9%. R2K +2.7%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop, if leaning a little weak ahead of the Powell...

The market spiked on the latest fedspeak nonsense, the SPX printing a new cycle high to settle at 4080, which does massive damage to the short and mid term bearish case.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 22.63, but settling -6.0% to 20.58.
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Peak cranes... is generally not a bullish economic sign

The sun sets on November

Full moon will be Dec'7th

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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China concerns

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, SPX -6pts (0.2%) at 3957. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow +0.01%. The Transports settled +1.6%. R2K +0.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in micro chop mode. There was a vain push to 3976, but then a rather strong swing lower to 3937, as the market remains concerned about Apple production - via Foxconn, in communist China...

 

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Dore on the increasingly rowdy, upset, and angry Chinese populace.
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The afternoon saw considerable minor chop, if leaning a little back upward. 

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 22.57, but settling -1.4% to 21.89. 
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Starting weak

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -62pts (1.5%) at 3963. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -2.1%. R2K -2.0%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, and whilst there were a few bounce attempts, the market broadly slid lower into the late afternoon. 

Meanwhile...

Early morning in Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Video source >>> https://youtu.be/YxO48PxHW-Q
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Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +8.3% to 22.21.

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Next full moon is Dec'7th

 –

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +1.9% (NYSE comp'), +1.8% (Dow), +1.5% (SPX), 1.3% (Trans), +1.1% (R2K), to +0.7% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The NYSE comp' lead the way upward, whilst the Nasdaq comp' lagged.

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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - PDD

T - BILI, CRWD, INTU, WDAY, HPE

W - WOOF, SNOW, CRM, SPLK, FIVE, VSCO, BOX

T - DG, KR, BIG, TD, LE, CHPT, ULTA, MRVL, ZS, AMBA

F - CBRL

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Econ-data/events

M -

T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, Consumer con'.

W - ADP jobs, Q3 GDP (print'2), intl' trade, Chicago PMI, JOLTS, Pending home sales. Powell (1.30pm), Fed Beige book (2pm).

T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

F - Monthly jobs

*as Wednesday is end month, I'd expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'.
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Final note

We're set to enter the last twelfth of the year. Despite a major bounce from early October, its unquestionably been a year for the bears. Ohh, and to be clear, I'm not saying we have any sign of a s/t ceiling. Having printed sp'4034 this past week, the bulls are still in control.

Meanwhile, we have the usual suspects - such as Cramer, and the Tom Lee, whom are increasing in confidence and arrogance again. They WANT to believe a key mid term floor is in. They NEED to believe a key floor is in. The other thought... that 2023 will be as bad, or worse, is UNTHINKABLE to them.

If you look around... you can see what is happening, as the path into and across 2023 is going to be an increasingly difficult one. I'm hopeful that most of you have long since planned and acted accordingly.

Black Friday offers >>> https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Should have stayed closed

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX -1pt (0.03%) at 4026. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K +0.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in micro chop mode, and remained that way into the early 1pm closing. The market should have stayed closed.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX settling +0.7% to 20.49.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Black Friday offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Upside into Thanksgiving

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +23pts (0.6%) at 4027. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.3%. R2K +0.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but then resumed clawing upward into the mid afternoon. 2pm saw a press release from Print Central, and after some initial swings, the market decided to resume upward to break a new cycle high of 4033, and settling moderately higher at 4027.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.4% to 20.35.
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Cold November rains

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Black Friday offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Tuesday strength

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +53pts (1.4%) at 4003. Nasdaq comp' +1.4%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled +0.3%. R2K +1.1%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note. The gains were shaky, but all the bears could manage was some cooling to 3956, before a secondary push upward that stretched into the late afternoon. Today's close >4K was significant, and offers the 200dma, currently at 4062.

Volatility continues to be ground lower, the VIX settling -4.8% to 21.29.
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–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Black Friday offers: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Pale Blue Dot

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -15pts (0.4%) at 3949. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.3%. R2K -0.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the spx printing 3933. The afternoon saw a recovery to 3962, with renewed weak leaning chop into the close, settling at 3949.

Volatility remained muted, the VIX settling -3.3% to 22.36

Whilst its a holiday week, I'd note that daily equity momentum is weakening, with most indexes prone to turning negative this Wed'/early Friday.
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Earthset

Home

Pale Blue Dot, by the wondrous Carl Sagan...

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

Black Friday offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -2.1% (Transports), -1.7% (R2K), -1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.7% (SPX), -0.3% (NYSE comp'), to -0.01% (Dow).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes saw net weekly declines.

The Transports lead the way down, whilst the Dow was very resilient.

More broadly, all six indexes are currently net higher for the month. The Dow, NYSE comp', and Transports are above their respective monthly 10MA. All six indexes still have negative monthly momentum.

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Looking ahead

It will be a short 3.5 trading day week, with the market closed for Thanksgiving.

Earnings:

M - FUTU, NIU, SJM, ZM, DELL, UAA

T - BBY, DLTR, DKS, BIDU, CSIQ, ADI, MDT, BURL, ANF, JACK, CAL, ADSK, JWN, HPQ, GES

W - DE

T - -

F - -

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Econ-data/events

M - Chicago Fed Nat' Act'

T - -

W - Durable Goods Orders, weekly jobs, PMI manu' & serv', consumer sent', new home sales, FOMC minutes (2pm).

T - CLOSED for Thanksgiving

F - *EARLY CLOSING 1pm*

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Winter Solstice is just over a month away.

Final note

It was a net bearish week, although the bulls can tout new multi-week highs. 

Do you hear it? You must hear it, yes? 

... the sounds of the breaking economy. Those who were around in 2007 should recognise the sounds... or rather 'signs' of an economy continuing to splinter apart. Whether its housing, the jobs market, vehicle sales, or the increasingly broken consumer, it should be undeniable to anyone who doesn't have their eyes (or ears) wide shut.

The US and wider global economy faces increasing strains into 2023. None of this gloomy outlook even considers any of the 'wild cards' playing out... China/Taiwan being a prime one. It merely assumes increasing job losses, and sustained high inflation. Do you really think spring 2023 will be better for the economy and/or market than the present?

I could understand the more bold shorting something early next week, if only for a day or two ahead of the Thanksgiving break. The more cautious bears will continue to wait for a momentum cyclical rollover on the weekly charts. In theory, we should see that within 1-2 weeks.

It should be clear, the October low of sp'3491 is not a m/t floor. Perhaps the real question most should be asking, is whether the market will retrace all the way back to the March 2020 lows. My guess is... yes. 

Unlike some out there... yours truly is an independent. I'm sponsored by no one, I'm beholden... to no one. For more of the same... you know where to find me.

For details see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Naturally choppy OPEX

US equity indexes closed a little higher, SPX +18pts (0.5%) at 3965. Nasdaq comp' +0.01%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.7%. R2K +0.6%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, with the SPX printing 3979. Yet the gains were shaky from the start, with most indexes turning negative... if only fractionally. The bulk of the day saw considerable chop, leaning a little higher into the weekend.

Volatility was ground lower into the weekend, the VIX settling -3.4% to 23.12.
–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com