It was a mixed month for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +9.0% (Russia), +6.4% (Australia), +6.1% (Brazil), +4.9% (Japan), +4.1% (India), +2.3% (USA), +1.6% (South Africa), -0.3% (Germany), -2.9% (Hong Kong), to -6.1% (China).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Seven world equity markets were net higher for March, with three net lower.
The Russian market was strongest, whilst the Chinese market was the laggard.
The South African market broke a new historic high.
Trading above the monthly 10MA: Brazil, India, South Africa, Australia
Monthly momentum remains negative in the USA, Germany, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, Hong Kong.
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Looking ahead
The schedule is light, which will give the market time to focus on the bigger issues, such as inflation, and geo-political matters.
Earnings:
M -
T - AYI, NG
W - TLRY, GBX, LEVI
T - STZ, CAG, WDFC
F -
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Econ-data:
M - Factory orders
T - Intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv'
W - EIA Pet' (10.30am), FOMC minutes (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, consumer credit report
F - Wholesale inventories
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| 7.06pm BST, 3c/37f, as night is set to fall |
Final note
The first quarter was net bearish for US equities, yet even the mainstream cheerleaders are twitchy that Q2 will offer something more for the bears. A fair few appear open to downside to around sp'4100/4000.
Regardless of Russia/Ukraine, Mr Inflation is the real problem. The next CPI print should show headline y/y inflation near/at 9.0%. Then the mainstream will finally have to openly talk about looming double digit inflation.
Inflation above ten percent would massively ramp up the pressure, on the US/global capital markets, but also the Fed, and the Biden administration. Mr Market is going to become upset, not least on the notion that the Fed need to increase rates by 50bps per meeting (next due May 4th). The irony being that rates should already be above inflation, but hey... that'll never happen.
For those loaded with fixed rate debt... these are pretty good times, as inflation is eroding the debt. For individuals with a mountain of variable rate debt, budgets are set to be increasingly strained. Even those who are debt free, still face the problem of rising prices, not least for energy and food.
Here in the UK, utility electric and nat' gas prices are set to increase around 54% as of Monday. Many are resigned to a further 40% increase with the next review in the autumn. Its laughable to see most in denial, not least the Bank of England, about an inevitable recession,
Ohh, and never mind the global supply chain, which is increasingly broken. Again, congratulations to all those who supported the C19 mandates, this is on you, as the psychopathic western society is getting exactly what it deserved.
April/Q2 should see some market drama, and who doesn't love some drama? As I'll continue to note, get your popcorn whilst the price is still relatively cheap, and more so.... whilst its even available.
For more of the same, you know where to find me.
For details, and the latest offers: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
