It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -6.7% (Transports), -4.7% (R2K), -3.9% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.3% (SPX), -0.6% (NYSE comp'), to -0.3% (Dow). Near term outlook leans bearish.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly charts for perspective).
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six of the main US equity indexes were net lower for the week.
The Transports lead the way lower, whilst the Dow was very resilient.
More broadly, monthly momentum is negative in all six indexes, with the Transports having finally followed.
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Looking ahead
It will be a short four day trading week, with Friday CLOSED for 'Good Friday'. Many European markets will also be CLOSED for the following 'Easter Monday'. Highlight of the coming week will be the latest inflation data.
Earnings:
M -
T - KMX
W - JPM, DAL, BLK, BBBY RENT
T - WFC, GS, C, MS, PNC, ALLY, TSM, UNH, RAD, ERIC
F - *CLOSED*
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - CPI, US T-budget
W - PPI, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, retail sales, import/export prices, consumer sent', busi' invent'
F - *CLOSED*
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Final note
Tuesday's inflation data will be hot, as headline y/y CPI will be in the mid/upper 8s. The 9s can be expected within May. Its not a stretch to target 10% by June/July.
Rate hike'2 is due May 4th, and most are resigned to a 50bps increase. Rate hike'3 is due June 15th. If the market is spiraling (SPX <4K, Nas' <12500), I'd not be surprised to see the first sign of the Fed backing off, with just a 25bps hike.
If there is anything most should have learned since 2008, its that the Fed put the equity market above all else. Its all they have left to tout, as the underlying capital shift from North America and Europe, toward Asia continues.
Coming soon, the Fed will state something such as 'We consider the threat of recession, a bigger risk than inflation'. That is all they have to say, and most - not least the mainstream cheerleaders, will play along with it, whilst the dumb sheep/serfs endure sustained inflation near/above 10%.
The greatest wealth transfer in history continues, and in many ways, its all the sheep/serfs deserve. I will hold little sympathy for a largely psychotic populace, who have long since turned cancerous upon themselves.
Ohh, I was supposed to say otherwise, and pretend the masses aren't that? For those getting riled up, you need to return to your regular programming of CNN or FOX. They'll tell you the lies you want to hear.
Multiple clocks are ticking, and if you don't feel the pressure of what is ahead this summer/autumn, maybe check to see if you still have a pulse.
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Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
