It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly chanages ranging from -3.8% (Nasdaq comp'), -3.2% (R2K), -2.7% (SPX, NYSE comp'), -1.9% (Dow), to +1.5% (Transports). Near term outlook leans bearish.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week, with one net higher.
The Nasdaq comp' lead the way down, whilst the Transports was sig' higher.
Of the five indexes that settled net lower, all five had bearish engulfing candles, which lean distinctly s/t bearish into end month.
More broadly, all six US equities are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, and have negative monthly momentum.
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Looking ahead
Earnings:
M - KO, ATVI
T - UPS, GE, PEP, MMM, VLO, RTX, JBLU, WM, DHI, MSFT, GOOGL, V, GM, CMG, TXN, SKX, RRC
W - BA, SPOT, TMUS, TECK, HUM, HOG, FB, PYPL, F, QCOM, PINS, TDOC, NOW, LVS, HTZ
T - TWTR, CAT, NOK, LUV, MA, MCD, MRK, BTU, LLY, DPZ, AAPL, AMZN, ROKU, INTC, HOOD, X, GILD
F - XOM, CVX, PSX, HON, BMY, ABBV
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer con', new home sales
W - Intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q1 (print'1)
F - PCE, Pers' income/spending, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'
*as Friday is the end of the month, I'd expect considerable chop on higher vol'.
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| Prominent sunspot groups 2993/4/5 |
Final note
Price action across Thursday and Friday was the most bearish since February.
This week's close of sp'4271 effectively ensures a bearish monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA of 4485. That in itself bodes problematic for May.
Natural target for the equity bears is the lower monthly bollinger, currently in the sp'3300s, although that technical will have risen to the 3500s by June.
To me, the only issue is how much crying from the mainstream cheerleaders will be necessary to convince the Fed to back off. For the record, I'd be surprised if we see more than three rate hikes, not least if SPX is well below 4K.
We have interesting times ahead! For more of the same...
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Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
