It was a bearish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -10.1% (Brazil), -6.3% (China), -5.6% (South Africa), -4.9% (USA), -4.4% (Hong Kong), -3.5% (Japan), -2.6% (India), -2.2% (Germany), -1.0% (Australia), to +5.9% (Russia).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
The mighty Dow declined for the third month of four, net lower by -1701pts (4.9%) to 32977. This was a third consecutive bearish settlement under the key 10MA. Momentum is increasingly negative. I'd note the lower bollinger at 27561, which is prime target for May/June.
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Nine world equity markets were net lower for April, with one net higher.
Brazil lead the way lower, whilst Russia managed a net gain.
Eight world markets are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, the two exceptions being South Africa and Australia.
Eight world markets have negative monthly momentum, the two exceptions being India and South Africa.
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Looking ahead
A very busy week is ahead, with another truck load of earnings, but also an FOMC, where we shall see rate hike'2.
Earnings:
M - BRK.B, ON, SIX, DVN, RIG, MOS, CAR, NTR, NXPI, FANG, MGM, CLX, CHGG
T - PFE, BP, MPC, HLT, TEVA, BIIB, EL, AMD, ABNB, SBUX, SKWS, LYFT, MTCH, CZR
W - MRNA, CVS, GOLD, GNRC, LNG, REGN, MAR, MRO, UBER, ETSY, TWLO, ET, CF, APA, FTNT
T - SHOP, CROX, PENN, DDOG, COP, CCJ, RCL, W, SQ, FUBO, LCID, NET, OPEN, WISH, DASH, SPCE
F - DKNG, EOG, GT, UAA, FLR
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Econ-data:
M - PMI/ISM manu', construction
T - JOLTS, Factory orders, vehicle sales
W - ADP jobs, intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet'
*FOMC announcement 2pm, with a press conf' at 2.30pm.
A rate hike of 50bps can be expected.
T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs
F - Monthly jobs, consumer credit.
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Final note
On any basis, it was a rough April for the collective of world equity markets. A few individual markets are still holding together, but the majority are m/t broken from late 2021/early 2022.
The economic data is showing an increasing number of recessionary signs, all whilst inflation is broadly climbing. Stagflation is set to become the word of 2022.
Whilst I expect the US Fed to raise rates May 4th and June 15th, I remain doubtful they'll be able to ignore the crying of the mainstream cheerleaders. I'd not be surprised to see the Fed itself say something along the lines of...
'We believe the threat of recession, with associated higher unemployment, outweighs the risk of a further increase in the rate of inflation, and this is why we have decided to not raise rates any further, and temporarily halted the reduction in the balance sheet'.
I'd expect that kind of comment from Powell at the FOMC press conf' of July 27th, or a more probable Sept'21st.
There remain a great many other powerful 'wild cards', not least the failing global food supply chain, Russia/Ukraine, and China/Taiwan. Ohh, and there is always going to be the threat of another C19 variant, which would be the excuse for renewed mandates, with many of the political elite (such as Trudeau, Ardern, Morrison, and Macron) actively seeking to re-implement.
Whilst summer will soon arrive in the northern hemisphere, things are increasingly set to unravel. Your window of opportunity closes late September. I'd suggest you make good use of the time to prepare. As I'll keep saying, one thing is for sure, we're going to need more popcorn.
April subscription offers >>> https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
