It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +6.0% (R2K), +5.9% (Transports), +3.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.0% (SPX), +1.4% (Dow), to +1.3% (NYSE comp'). Near term outlook threatens some cooling, but broadly bullish into early 2022.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.
All six US equity indexes broke new historic highs.
All six US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.
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Looking ahead
A lighter week is ahead. The latest CPI data on Wednesday will merit attention, and be another reminder that higher prices aren't going to be 'transitory'.
*US clocks roll back one hour... early Nov'7th, which for many, will define the start of the Dark Winter.
Earnings:
M - TTD, COTY, AMC, RBLX, CLOV, SPCE, LMND, SDC, ZNGA, TME
T - PLTR, BNTX, WKHS, DHI, NIO, COIN, UPST, FUBO, PLUG, WYNN, U, DASH
W - WEN, SOFI, DIS, WISH, AFRM, OPEN, BYND
T - PSFE, MT, YETI, TPR, SNDL, COUP, RIDE
F - AZN,
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Econ-data/events
M - -
T - PPI
W - CPI, weekly jobs, Wholesale inventories, US T-budget
T - *Veterans day*
F - JOLTS, consumer sent',
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| The Dark Winter of 2021/22 |
Final note
On any basis, its been a very bullish start to the last sixth of the year, with new historic highs in all the main indexes. Having climbed for five weeks, the market will be increasingly vulnerable to some cooling. At best, the bears could seek 3-5%, before the market resumes 'normal service'.
The crash calling maniacs are still out there. Here is just one...
I think 'Epic Economist' has a direct tie to the 'we'll spin every story as a negative' lunatics of Zerohedge. Regardless, he has moved on from the 'October Stock market crash!' to the 'November stock market crash!'. I guess it makes for profitable advertising revenue, but still... its kinda pathetic.
I would note the SPX monthly 10MA stands at 4299. The crash callers have NOTHING to tout unless we see a monthly settlement under that technical. Were we to break/hold much under 4300, the natural target would be the lower bollinger, currently at 2742.
To be clear as crystal, I see zero reason to expect anything other than broad upside into 2022. I don't fear the taper, and higher yields/rates are a net positive.
Perhaps the only issue for the remainder of the year is whether the SPX will print giant psy' 5000, or not until early 2022.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
