It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -8.0% (R2K), -6.0% (Transports), -5.3% (NYSE comp'), -4.7% (Nasdaq comp'), -4.5% (SPX), to -4.4% (Dow). Near term outlook offers a bounce, if only 1-2 days.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes settled powerfully lower for the week.
The R2K lead the way lower, with the Dow most resilient.
More broadly, all six US equity indexes are currently net lower for March.
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Looking ahead
The week ahead will be focused on the latest inflation data, with CPI on Tuesday, and equally important - the PPI, on Wednesday.
Earnings:
M - ZIM, GETY, BZFD
T - CAL, LEN
W - ADBE, ARRY, FIVE, PATH,
T - DG, APRN, JBL, WSM, SIG, MOMO, FDX
F - XPEV
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - CPI
W - PPI, Retail sales, Empire state manu', homebuilders survey, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, building permits, Phil' Fed manu'
F - Indust' prod', leading indicators, consumer sent', *OPEX*
*US clocks jump ahead Sunday Mar'12th.
UK/European clocks will follow... March 26th.
**As Friday is OPEX, I would expect consider chop on higher vol'.
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Final note
The collapse of SVB was fast and nasty, and a stark reminder of the extremely fragile system. SVB Financial is the first big name to fall, and it should be clear, there will be many... many others to follow.
The mainstream cheerleaders and 'smart guys', remain monstrously complacent about almost everything. The usual suspects - Cramer, the Tom Lee, Charles Payne, Lebenthal, Ms. Link, and Cathie Wood, they're all still broadly bullish.
You can see them as either in abject denial of reality, or as just 'paid off' and corrupt, lying to their audience, whilst they themselves quietly hit the sell button.
Friday morning saw the Cramer post...
Some are justly wondering if this is the kiss of death for JPM, much as it was for Bear Sterns in March 2008.
Whilst short term equity price action is always to seen as 'semi-random chaos', the weekly candles are bearish engulfing, and are strongly suggestive of lower lows this coming week. Natural target is the Dec'2022 low of sp'3764, which is clearly within range.
For those paying attention to the bigger picture, price structure on most of the monthly candle charts, offer multi-month bear flags. In many ways, the setup is similar to spring/summer 2008.
2022 can seen as act one.
Welcome to act two! Students of film should know how the second act will usually end.
If you revel in market drama... the time is NOW!
For details: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
