Saturday 18 March 2023

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -3.1% (Trans), -2.8% (R2K), -2.0% (NYSE comp'), -0.15% (Dow), +1.4% (SPX), to +4.4% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (weekly candle charts).


Nasdaq comp'



NYSE comp'



Four equity indexes were net lower, with two net higher.

The Transports was powerfully lower, whilst the Nasdaq comp' was powerfully higher.

Weekly momentum is negative in the Dow, R2K, NYSE comp', and Transports, with the SPX due to turn negative as of March 20th, and the Nasdaq comp' set to follow in April. 

Looking ahead

The focus will be on the Fed.






F -



M -

T - Existing home sales

W - FOMC, 2pm press release. 2.30pm press conf' with Powell. Rate hike nine of +25bps to 4.75-5.00% can be expected.

T - Weekly jobs, intl' trade, new home sales

F - Durable goods orders, PMI serv', PMI manu'.


Final note

The last few weeks have seen more begin to get a little concerned. This has been reflected with the VIX printing the 30s. Yet it should be clear, its just the beginning. You could legitimately argue we're 'somewhere around March 2008', but it doesn't really matter.

What does matter is that you filter out the absolute garbage, the lies, the deceit, or just plain delusions, as continue to be spewed from the 'usual suspects'. You know the names I'm thinking of.

You can choose to listen to them, or you can choose to instead follow, promote, or even subscribe and support those, who have broadly called things correctly since late 2021/early 2022.

I will always understand how many get lost within the s/t noise. Day to day whipsaws of 2% or more are difficult to deal with, but what really matters are the grander trends, and those should be clear to you.

Its arguable that even the m/t equity downside doesn't really matter. There are grander issues that you're going to have to deal with, not least the move to CBDCs, permanent travel restrictions, increasingly limited food supplies, and a totalitarian surveillance state with associated social credit scores.

If your mind glazes over at the prior paragraph, you have no business reading any further, and should get back to your normal programming of FOX Business or CNN. 

For those that do comprehend the path the society/species is on, you should indeed recognise it matters little whether the SPX floors around 3K, 2K, or even back-test the 2000/2007 double top of the 1500s.

None of it really matters.

The only thing that does matters is how well you can isolate yourself, your family, friends, and employees, from a largely psychologically sick society/species, that has long since turned cancerous upon itself.

The ticking of the clock is getting rather loud, isn't it?

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Have a good weekend... if you deserve it.

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.