Extreme window dressing

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +58pts (1.4%) at 4108. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +1.3%. The Transports settled +2.2%. R2K +1.8%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, with the SPX pushing to 4091 in the 12pm hour. There was considerable chop into the late afternoon, with a micro burst to 4110, and settling at 4109.  

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX printing 18.52, and settling -1.7% to 18.70.

Today's equity price action was a pretty clear case of extreme window dressing. Some cooling to psy'4K is a given, the only issue is whether its before or not until after the Easter break.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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A green Thursday

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, SPX +23pts (0.6%) at 4050. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K -0.1%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, helped by most other world markets. The SPX printed a new s/t high of 4057. From there, cooling into the mid afternoon to 4032, with a secondary push upward to settle at 4050. 

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing a new s/t low of 18.85, swinging to 20.08, but cooling to settling -0.5% to 19.02.

Friday will be end month/Q1, and whilst it might open positive, its difficult to see it not settling net lower.

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Midweek strength

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +56pts (1.4%) at 4027. Nasdaq comp' +1.8%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.0%. R2K +1.1%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, with the SPX printing 4017, some cooling to 4001, with a secondary wave upward into the late afternoon to print 4030, and settle at 4027.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.3% to 19.12.

I'd be open to Thursday starting positive, but the market will be prone to cooling into end month/Q1. 

–
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Goodnight from London
--

 

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Tedious Tuesday

US equity indexes mostly closed a little weak, SPX -6pts (0.2%) at 3971. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled +0.3%. R2K -0.1%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a touch weak, with the bears only managing to print SPX 3960. The afternoon saw a secondary wave lower to 3951, if recovering to settle at 3971.

Volatility was itself very muted, the VIX printing 21.40, cooling back to settle -3.1% to 19.97. 

Whilst Wednesday might open positive, I remain inclined to see sp'3900 before end month.

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A mixed Monday

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +6pts (0.2%) at 3977. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.3%. R2K +1.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were rather shaky from the start. The SPX printed 4003, but cooled to fully fill the opening gap to 3970. There was a secondary push upward into the late afternoon, but it didn't clear the opening high. The closing hour saw a swing from 3997 to settle at 3977.

Volatility was a little mixed, the VIX printing 21.81, but cooling back to settle -5.2% to 20.60.
-

Another day closer to the launch of SpaceX Starship

Spring Magnolias

Bullish green shoots

Every sky... unique

7.09pm British Summer Time (BST)

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.4% (SPX), +1.2% (Dow), +1.1% (NYSE comp'), +0.7% (R2K), to -0.5% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

Five US equity indexes saw net weekly gains, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way upward, whilst the Transports was moderately lower.

Weekly momentum is negative for the SPX, Dow, NYSE, R2K, and Trans, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'. 

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Looking ahead

The schedule is relatively light. I would note Friday's PCE data.

PCE > https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy
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Earnings:

M - CCL, BNTX, PVH

T - WBA, FUTU, LOVE, MKC, LULU, MU, CALM

W - PAYX, RH

T - SKLZ, RUM, BB

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M -

T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, Consumer con'.

W - Pending home sales, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, Q4 GDP (print'3)

F - Personal income/spending, PCE, consumer sent'.

*UK/European clocks will jump ahead one hour, early Sunday March 26th.  

**As Friday is end month/quarter, I would expect very dynamic price action on rather monstrous vol'.

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Final note

Rate hike nine of 25bps, the collapsing stock prices of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, with further lies & delusions from the mainstream cheerleaders and 'smart guys'.

Everything is proceeding as I had foreseen. 

Seeing the system fall apart, much like 2007>09, does make for the greatest show on Planet Krazy.

You should be more than aware of how this will end, and I've little interest in repeating what I've warned about across many months.

I'll merely conclude with.... enjoy the show.

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Have a good weekend... if you deserve it.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Recovering into the weekend

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +22pts (0.6%) at 3970. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +0.4%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K +0.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, largely due to European markets. The SPX printed 3909 in late morning, before clawing upward to turn fractionally positive. The mid/late afternoon saw considerable chop, if recovering upward to 3972, and settling at 3970.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing an early (cash market) high of 25.08, if cooling back to settle -3.8% to 21.74.
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Double rainbow... all the way... across the sky

A fine sunset... just after the storm

The crescent moon and Venus

Next full moon is April 6th

 

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The dumb smart guys

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX +11pts (0.3%) at 3948. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.5%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, with the SPX building very significant gains to 4007. The gains were on considerable chatter from the 'smart guys' that the Fed has/near completed its rate hiking cycle.

Again, these are the same lunatics, who were calling inflation as transitory in late 2021, and have recently been calling for a soft landing. 

Its incredible how those who have been consistently wrong, are still having their opinions and outlooks taken at all seriously.

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From SPX 4007, there was some rather strong cooling into the late afternoon to 3919, and settling at 3948. 

Volatility was very mixed, the VIX seeing an 11am low of 20.16, spiking to 24.91, and settling +1.6% to 22.61. 

Yesterday's (SPX) powerful bearish engulfing daily SPX candle did play out... if not initially. I'd note today's turn was from around 11am... which is a typical turn time, the secondary being 2.30pm.

Yours... awaiting the weekend

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Rate hike nine

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -65pts (1.6%) at 3936. Nasdaq comp' -1.6%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -2.0%. R2K -2.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities saw a holding pattern into the 2pm FOMC announcement.

As expected, we saw rate hike nine of 25bps to 4.75-5.00%

Equities saw an initial spike, with the SPX printing 4031. 

The Powell duly appeared at 2.30pm...

Ohh yeah, the banking system is strong and resilient, especially FRC

Equities cooled back from 4031, the SPX printing 3972, a secondary push to 4013, but ending on an outright ugly note, settling at 3936.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 19.94, but settling +4.1% to 22.26.

Today's SPX candle is powerfully bearish engulfing, and bodes bearish, not least for a Thursday.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Ahead of the Fed

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +51pts (1.3%) at 4002. Nasdaq comp' +1.6%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.7%. R2K +1.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, especially helped by European markets. The SPX pushed to 3998, if cooling back to 3971. The afternoon saw a secondary push upward, printing 4009, and settling at 4002.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -11.5% to 21.38.

Wednesday will see rate hike nine, as the daily cyclical setup favours the bulls.
-

The first full day of spring

... construction is planned to continue across some years.

Next up... floor 13

A bearable spring day

 
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