It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.5% (SPX), +2.4% (R2K), 1.8% (Dow), +1.2% (NYSE comp'), to +0.9% (Trans).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.
The Nasdaq comp' lead the way up, whilst the Transports lagged.
More broadly, all six US equity indexes are above their respective monthly 10MA. All six US equity indexes still have negative monthly momentum.
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Looking ahead
An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings and rate hike eight.
Earnings:
M - SOFI, PHG, GEHC, CAJ, AGNC, NXPI, WHR
T - XOM, UPS, GM, PFE, CAT, MCD, SPOT, PSX, MPC, AMD, SNAP, AMGN, MDLZ, EA, CB, SYK, MTCH
W - WM, MO, TMUS, PTON, BSX, HUM, TMO, GSK, ABC, META, ALNG, AFL, ALL, MET, ELF
T - MRK, COP, LLY, BMY, HON, HSY, SONY, EL, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, F, QCOM, SBUX, X, GILD
F - CI, REGN, SNY
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Econ-data/events
M -
T - Employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer conf'
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', JOLTS, construction, vehicle sales
*FOMC announcement 2pm. Rate hike eight, +25bps to 4.50-4.75%. Powell will host a press conf' at 2.30pm, which will last around an hour.
T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, factory orders
F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISM serv'
*as Tuesday is end month, I'd expect dynamic price action on very high vol'.
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Final note
This week saw a decisive settlement above m/t declining trend (well, at least for the SPX). Yet the same thing occurred in April 2008, and that didn't end so well.
On balance, I'm looking for the SPX to push to the 4150/60s... whether next week, or the following. From there, we should see renewed cooling. For confidence, bears need to take out the Dec'2022 low of 3764. Right now, that looks a stretch until March.
With equities powering upward into end month, I've sarcastically noted a few times in recent days, isn't it great the economy is strong, and that we have world peace?
The reality is very different, as the macro picture is increasingly lousy. The US/western consumers are losing purchasing power, with each and every month. Geo-political tensions continue to increase, as many western states are spoiling for a war with Russia.
Some - such as Prof' Siegel of Wharton, are demanding and/or expecting the Fed to cut rates in the second half. Yet... the historical fact is that such a rate cut would be the ultimate equity sell signal.
Do you have enough popcorn for the 'big show' ?
If you love 'market drama', this is the year for you!
For more of the same....
For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend... if you deserve it.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
