Monday 10 January 2022

A rough start

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -6pts (0.1%) at 4670. Nasdaq comp' +0.05%. Dow -0.45%. The Transports settled -1.5%. R2K -0.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the market spiraling lower on multiple concerns, but primarily... on higher rates. The SPX printed 4582, before a choppy recovery into the late afternoon.

Volatility spiked, the VIX printing 23.33, if cooling back to settle +3.4% to 19.40. Regardless of Tuesday, Wednesday threatens bigger problems if inflation comes in hotter than the mainstream expect.

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The following would normally have been part of the weekend post, but that was already crazy long, so here it is...

Looking ahead

It will be the formal start of Q4 earnings season, starting with the financial trio of JPM, C, and WFC. However, arguably far more important, will be the latest inflation data. Market consensus is for headline CPI y/y 7.1% vs 6.8% prior.

Earnings:

M - TLRY

T - ACI

W - JEF, SJR, KBH, VOLT

T - DAL, TSM

F - JPM, C, WFC, BLK

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Econ-data:

M - Wholesale invent'

T -NFIB small business index

*Powell is due before the US Senate for his nomination hearing.
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W - CPI, US T-budget, EIA Pet', Fed beige book (2pm

T - Weekly jobs, PPI

F - Retail sales, import/export prices, indust' prod', consumer sent', business invent'

*As Monday Jan'17th is CLOSED, once earnings are out of the way, Friday Jan'14th will be increasingly inclined to be subdued on light vol'. The bears could perhaps look for a mild case of 'rats selling into the long weekend'.

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Goodnight from London