January settles

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, SPX +83pts (1.9%) at 4515. Nasdaq comp' +3.4%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled +1.5%. R2K +3.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but the buyers did appear, and with some short covering, the market ended the month on a distinctly positive note. Volatility was naturally ground lower, the VIX settling -10.2% to 24.83.

Despite Monday's gains... it was still a month for the bears...

The SPX was net lower by -5.3%, the worse month since March 2020.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.3% (Dow), +0.8% (SPX), u/c (Nasdaq comp', NYSE comp'), -0.9% (R2K), to -1.3% (Transports).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

Two US equity indexes were net higher for the week, two were effectively flat, with two net lower.

The Dow was significantly higher, whilst the Transports was significantly lower.

More broadly, the Nasdaq comp', Dow, NYSE comp', R2K, and Transports are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, whilst the SPX is holding above. 

Monthly momentum in the Nasdaq comp' and R2K is negative, with other indexes set to follow in February.

–

Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead.

Earnings:

M - NXPI, CBT

T - XOM, UPS, SIRI, AMD, PYPL GOOGL, GM, SBUX, GILD, EA, MTCH

W - ABBV, DHI, WM, MPC, FB, QCOM, SPOT

T - NOK, PENN, MRK, COP, LLY, HON, AMZN, F, SNAP, PINS, ATVI, U, SWKS, SKX, GPRO

F - BMY, REGN, RCL

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Econ-data/events

M - Chicago PMI

T - PMI/ISM manu', JOLTS, construction spend'

W - ADP jobs, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM serv', factory orders

F - Monthly jobs

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It was a rough January for US equities

 

Final note

We have just one trading day left of January. Even if Monday is net higher, it won't do much to negate what has been an especially bearish start to the year... if from new historic highs (in a few indexes).

The market could certainly bounce for a week or two, but even if the bulls can manage that, the monthly cycles are set to increasingly favour the bears, and that bodes problematic across February, and into mid March... when rate hike'1 is due. 

In any case, lets see how Monday/January settles.

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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Yet another failed bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, SPX -23pts (0.5%) at 4326. Nasdaq comp' -1.4%. Dow -0.02%. The Transports settled -1.4%. R2K -2.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

 

Summary

US equities open significantly higher, with the SPX pushing to 4428. However, the gains were always shaky, with indexes turning negative in early afternoon. The late afternoon saw broad weakness to 4309, and settling at 4326. Volatility was once again mixed, swinging from 28.42 to 33.00, and settling -4.6% to 30.49. 

With just two trading days left of January, I would suggest any of you to go stare at this for a good hour...

SPX, monthly

Bearish engulfing monthly candle.
January due to settle under the key monthly 10MA
Monthly momentum set to turn negative at the Tuesday Feb'1st open. 

If you're not hearing alarm bells (currently via the Nasdaq and R2K), you're not paying attention.
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Moderately busy skies

A fine winter's day

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Powell causing problems

US equity indexes mostly closed on a weak note, SPX -6pts (0.1%) at 4349. Nasdaq comp' +0.02%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -1.0%. R2K -1.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly higher, with the SPX pushing to 4444 ahead of the Fed. The press release from Print Central saw a spike to 4453... but from there it was broadly downhill... due to the Powell.
 

More than anything, the market was increasingly annoyed with any mention of the balance sheet. Whilst the printers are still spinning, Powell's mention of actual reductions in the balance sheet sure didn't please the capital markets.

The late afternoon saw distinct weakness, with the SPX turning significantly lower to 4304, if recovering to settle at 4349.

Volatility was very mixed, the the VIX printing 33.04, if settling +2.6% to 31.96.

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... and once more... night must fall.

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Bearish consolidation

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, SPX -53pts (1.2%) at 4356. Nasdaq comp' -2.3%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

Price action was bearish consolidation ahead of Print Central. Price structure is a bear flag, as 4222 does not appear a key floor, with SPX monthly momentum set to turn negative in February.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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A lower low

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +12pts (0.3%) at 4410. Nasdaq comp' +0.6%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +1.2%. R2K +2.4%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, with the SPX spiraling to 4222, notably taking out the Oct'2021 low. There were repeated bounce attempts, with the market clawing upward to turn positive into the close.

Volatility spiked, the VIX printing 38.94 - the highest level since Oct'2020, and settling +3.6% to  29.90. Whilst indexes settled net higher, it won't take much to break another lower low, as the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are increasingly bearish.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -8.1% (R2K), -7.5% (Nasdaq comp'), -5.7% (SPX), -4.8% (NYSE comp'), -4.6% (Dow), to -4.1% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes were powerfully net lower for the week.

The R2K lead the way lower, with the Transports most resilient.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are currently trading under their respective monthly 10MA. A January settlement under the 10MA would merit alarm bells.

Monthly momentum has turned negative in the Nasdaq comp' and the R2K, and it merits alarm bells.

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Looking ahead

An exceptionally busy week is ahead, with a literal truck load of earnings, along with the first FOMC of the year.

Earnings:

M - HAL, IBM, STLD, LOGI

T - JNJ, GE, VZ, AXP, LMT, MMM, NEE, RTX, MSFT,  TXN, COF, NAVI

W - BA, T, FCX, ABT, ANTM, TSLA, INTC, LRCX, LEVI, NOW, LC, STX, LVS, XLNX

T - MA, NUE, MCD, VLO, JBLU, MO, LUV, AAPL, HOOD, V, X, WDC

F - CVX, PSX, CAT

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Econ-data/events

M - PMI manu', PMI serv'

T - Case Shiller, consumer con'

W - Intl' trade, new home sales,

*FOMC announcement 2pm. Press conf' 2.30pm. Whilst no change in policy can be expected, the fed will likely reiterate the printers are in the process of being fully spun down, with rate hike'1 due at the subsequent FOMC of March 16th.

T - GDP Q4 (print'1), weekly jobs, durable goods orders, pending home sales

F - Pers' income/outlays, employment cost, consumer sent'

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Final note

Friday's close was pretty ugly, with the SPX settling under the 200dma for the first time since June 2020. There is zero sign of a s/t floor, with next support of the lower weekly bollinger at 4323. Further supports are the Oct'2021 low of 4278, psy'4k, and then the 38% fib' (of March 2020>Jan'2022) of 3815.

Ohh, and lets be clear, even the 3800s would not merit use of the C word... crash. All those crash callers - who were touting it EVERY SINGLE DAY across 2021, are now saying 'see.... we told you so!'. They are still to be seen for what they are... single minded maniacs, with nothing original or useful to say.

I'd keep in mind all those millions of retail amateurs who jumped aboard the equity train in spring 2020, who haven't experienced an equity drop of any real significance. Mr Market will want to 'break' as many of those Robinhood margin-long lunatics as possible. 

For those that revel in the drama, the US equity market is always the place to be... especially this coming week!

For charts, charts, more charts, and whatever else I want to highlight... you know where to find me.

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Have a good weekend

--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Ugly end to an ugly week

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -84pts (1.9%) at 4397. Nasdaq comp' -2.7%. Dow -1.3%. The Transports settled -1.8%. R2K -1.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, with the SPX printing 4420, with a bounce to briefly turn fractionally positive to 4494. From there... the sellers appeared, with a distinctly ugly end to what was an ugly week. Volatility picked up some more, the VIX settling +12.7% to 28.85.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Another failed bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -50pts (1.1%) at 4482. Nasdaq comp' -1.3%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled -0.4%. R2K -1.8%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX pushing to 4602. From there... the market started to lean back lower... not helped by chatter that Peloton is looking to halt production. The afternoon saw a powerful swing lower, with the market turning broadly negative... but then... it was a Thursday.

Volatility was subdued until the late afternoon, the VIX settling +7.3% to 25.59.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Failed bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -44pts (1.0%) at 4532. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -1.0%. The Transports settled -0.4%. R2K -1.6%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, but all the bulls could manage was 4611, before the market swung lower. The afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning on the weaker side, with a pretty ugly closing hour

Volatility remains elevated, the VIX settling +4.6% to 23.85. We're yet to see equity 'capitulation', and VIX could easily spike into the 30s if sp'4400s.

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Rays of hope

A glimpse of golden sunshine

The waning moon

 

Max zoom... 332x (Nikon P950)

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Rough start

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -85pts (1.8%) at 4577. Nasdaq comp' -2.6%. Dow -1.5%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -3.0%

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened significantly lower, and whilst there were repeated bounce attempts, the market settled sig' lower. Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +18.8% to 22.79.

I will merely add, today's close in the Nasdaq comp' under its 200dma merits alarm bells. We can expect further market drama across the next week or two.
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Grey horror

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com