It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +6.1% (India), +4.7% (Japan), +3.5% (South Africa), +3.2% (USA, Russia), +2.6% (Germany), +2.5% (Hong Kong), +1.0% (Australia), +0.7% (China), to -4.4% (Brazil).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
The mighty Dow broke a new historic high of 32009, settling +940pts (3.2%) to 30932. Monthly momentum continues to build, and is on the very high side. I would note the key monthly 10MA at 28149, and that will jump/adjust to the mid 29000s as of the March 1st open.
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Nine world equity markets settled net higher for February, whilst one settled net lower.
India and Japan lead the way upward, whilst China and Brazil lagged.
The United States, German, and Indian markets broke new historic highs.
All ten world equity markets settled the month above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend in all ten as bullish.
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Looking ahead
Earnings:
M - WKHS, BRK-A, SSYS, FOLD, NIO, ZM, LMND, NVAX, SRPT
T - TGT, SE, KSS, ANF, FUBO, VEEV, JWN, AMBA, HPE, URBN, BOX
W - DLTR, WEN, EXK, SNOW, MRVL, SPLK, OKTA
T - KR, BJ, PRPL, CIEN, BZUN, COST, SDC, SWBI, AVGO, GPS, WORK
F - BIG
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Econ-data:
M - PMI/ISM manu', construction
T - Vehicle sales
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv'
T - Weekly jobs, productivity/costs, factory orders
F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, consumer credit
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Final note
We're one sixth of the way through 2021. It should be clear as crystal, the collective of world equity markets are still broadly climbing. Whether you want to deem the central banks as responsible, the TINA (there is no alternative) trade, or just speculative hysteria... it doesn't matter. What does matter is the m/t trend is seen for what is it.... bullish.
Whilst there is increasing background chatter of an imminent 'crash', its mostly from the same lunatics who are always calling for such. There is currently no reason to expect anything other than a correction. Seasonally, equities are usually positive into and across the spring. The problems only tend to begin from around mid April onward.
Are we in a bubble? Sure its a bubble, as even some of the mainstream cheerleaders quietly admit to. Are we close to another giant collapse like last Feb>March? Right now, there is no reason to believe that.
I'd keep in mind, a great many stocks have massive technical 'open air' to far higher levels. In particular, energy and financials. I'd look to OXY, SLB, BAC and WFC.
As the sun sets on February, and our twisted 'reality' becomes ever more dystopian, I'll merely add... be careful out there in... the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
