Saturday, 3 October 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bearish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -6.8% (Hong Kong), -6.4% (Russia), -5.2% (China), -4.8% (Brazil), -3.8% (Australia), -2.3% (USA), -2.0% (South Africa), -1.4% (Germany, India), to +0.2% (Japan).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

The mighty Dow broke a new cycle high of 29199, but settled -648pts (2.3%) to 27781. September made for a third consecutive monthly settlement above the 10MA, whilst momentum settled fractionally negative.

As of Oct'2nd, the monthly 10MA is in the 26100s. An Oct' settlement <26k would offer the 23000s in Nov'. For now, that looks... unlikely.

Germany – DAX

The economic powerhouse of the EU - Germany, settled -184pts (1.4%) to 12760. S/t alarm bells would be merited <12000.

Japan – Nikkei

Japan was resilient to other world markets, settling +45pts (0.2%) to 23185. S/t alarm bells... only if <21k.

Brazil – Bovespa

The Brazilian market settled -4765pts (4.8%) to 94603, with price settling back under the monthly 10MA.

Russia - RTSI

Russian equities struggled, settling -80pts (6.4%) to 1178, which was notably under the 10MA, and key price threshold of the 1200s.

India – SENSEX

Indian equities settled -560pts (1.4%) to 38067, although that made for a third monthly settlement above the 10MA.

China – Shanghai comp'

The Chinese market settled -177pts (5.2%) to 3218, as the 3400s remain a very difficult threshold to break and hold above. 

South Africa – Dow

South African equities cooled for a second consecutive month, settling -33pts (2.0%) to 1629, although that was still above the 10MA.

Hong Kong – Hang Seng

The Hong Kong market lead the way lower in September, settling -1718pts (6.8%) to 23459, back to levels seen in May.

Australia – AORD

Australian equities struggled, settling -236pts (3.8%) to 6009, as the monthly 10MA is clear resistance.


Nine world equity markets settled net lower for September, with one net higher.

Hong Kong and Russia lead the way lower, whilst Japan managed a minor gain.

The USA, Germany, Japan, India, China, and South Africa are still trading above their respective monthly 10MA, whilst Brazil, Russia, Hong Kong, and Australia are below.

Looking ahead

The schedule is light. Things will become busy w/c Oct'12th, with Q3 earnings.


M -
F -


M - PMI/ISM serv'
T - Intl' trade, JOLTS
W - EIA Pet' report, FOMC minutes (2pm), consumer credit (3pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Fed bal' sheet (4.30pm)
F - Wholesale invent'


Final note

September was a rough month for most world equity markets. In theory, October should break lower lows, not least with ongoing mainstream hysteria about the China virus. 

The US President becoming ill, is only adding to the s/t uncertainty ahead of the election. If there is anything most should recognise by now, even more than bad news itself, the market does not like uncertainty!

The Sept' lows of Dow 26537 and SPX 3209 could be expected to be traded under, if marginally, and if briefly, ahead of the election. Such further downside would be more than enough to 'motivate' the political hacks (on both sides) to agree to some kind of stimulus bill 4.0. 

For the record, considering recent rallies and debate'1, Trump is still on track to win a second term, and it should be clear, the market would be fine with that.

We can expect further 'October surprises'... in the twilight zone.

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Have a good weekend


*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.