It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.1% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.9% (Dow), -0.5% (SPX), +0.2% (NYSE comp'), to +0.4% (Trans).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans
–
Summary
Three indexes settled net lower, with two net higher.
The Nasdaq was weakest, whilst the Transports was most resilient.
The Transports broke a new historic high.
More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA.
–
Looking ahead
A very busy week is ahead, not least with a truck load of earnings and econ-data. The market will naturally also be placing attention on whether stimulus bill four can be agreed upon, and of course... the looming US election.
Earnings:
M - HAS, TWLO, CHGG, NXPI, FFIV
T - PFE, MMM, CAT, LLY, RTX, SHW, NVS, MRK, JBLU, BP, MSFT, AMD, FEYE, FSLR, AKAM
W - UPS, BA, GE, MA, SNE, ANTM, GNRC, FSLY, PINS, ETSY, GILD, TDOC, LVGO, V, F, EBAY, NOW
T -SHOP, NOK, MRNA, SPOT, OSTK, KHC, BUD, AAPL, AMZN, TWTR, FB, GOOGL ATVI, SBUX
F - XOM, ABBV, CVX, HON, MO, UAA
-
Econ-data/events
M - Chicago Fed' Nat' act', New home sales
T - Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer conf'
W - Intl' trade, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q3 (print'1), Pending home sales
F - Pers' income/outlays, employment costs, Consumer sent'
*UK/EU clocks will move back 1hr, as of 2am, Sunday Oct'26, whilst US clocks change in the early hours of Sunday Nov'1st.
**as Friday Oct'30th will be end month,
expect more dynamic price action, on considerably higher volume.
-
Final note
It was a mixed week, with the m/t bullish trend in equities remaining comfortably intact. Mr Market is distinctly twitchy though, about a lack of fresh stimulus. After all, asset bubbles require regular, and increasingly larger injections of new money... or they'll burst. Stimulus bill four is clearly going to be agreed upon, and whether its before, or shortly after the election, is frankly irrelevant.
The election is very near, and little has changed, other than societal tensions have increased another few notches. It should be clear, the market wants to have that uncertainty removed. A contested election would seriously upset the market. A foray (if very briefly) to the sp'3100/3000s is a threat before resuming broadly higher.
Yours truly holds to original best guess... a second Trump victory. Again, I could drone on for pages about the 'reasons why'. Suffice to note, the Democrat campaign is unquestionably worse than 2016, where Clinton was a far better candidate than Biden. It would be truly bizarre if Biden - who has rarely ventured outside, won against Trump, whom is holding multiple large rallies almost every day.
 |
| Flying towards another victory |
So yes, I still think Trump is on track for another victory. Personally, I'd like to see something more decisive than 2016. An increased electoral college vote >330, and also... the 'popular vote'.
Gods knows how the left will react to another Trump victory. Will it be the start of mass societal chaos, or will the marxists/communists be content to bide their time until 2024?
Ohh, and just so there is no misunderstanding, the crazy fiscal and monetary policies that the Trump admin' have followed across the past 3.7 years, the results of that economic madness, will inevitably bear inflationary fruit sooner or later. Commodities will perhaps see the most dynamic upside in 2021, not least if a combination of higher demand, and supply side problems.
In any case, we're another day, and another week, further along the twisted and nightmarish path in... the twilight zone.
--
If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the
same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest
offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
--
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.
