Monday, 15 November 2021

Tedious chop

US equity indexes closed a little mixed SPX -0.05pts at 4682. Nasdaq comp' -0.04%. Dow -0.04%. The Transports settled +0.1%. R2K -0.4%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, but the gains were pretty shaky, with indexes turning red.

The afternoon saw considerable and distinctly tedious micro chop, if mostly leaning on the fractionally weaker side. Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling +1.2% to 16.49.

SPX is offering a bear flag, whilst the black VIX candle is suggestive that equities will be positive at some point on Tuesday.

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Broadly cruising into early 2022


The twilight zone


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 13 November 2021

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.0% (R2K), -0.7% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.6% (Dow), -0.5% (Trans), -0.3% (SPX), to +0.3% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Five US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with one net higher.

The R2K lead the way lower, whilst the NYSE comp' was a little higher.

The Dow, NYSE comp', and R2K broke new historic highs.

Looking ahead

A lighter week, with a focus on retail.

Earnings:

M - TSN, LCID, CSPR

T - WMT, HD, SE, JMIA, SBLK

W - TGT, BIDU, LOW, TJX, IQ, BILI, NVDA, CSCO, SONO, BBWI, JOYY, VSCO

T - BABA, M, JD, KSS, CSIQ, BJ, AMAT, PANW, WDAY, ROST, WSM

F - FL, BKE

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Econ-data/events

M - Empire state manu'

T - Retail sales, import/export prices, indust' prod', busi' invent'

W - Housing starts, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, Phil' Fed, leading indi'

F - *OPEX*

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           Bullish English Oak

Final note

Whilst most indexes settled net lower, it was nothing for the bears to get even mildly excited about. I'd certainly be open to some cooling into OPEX, but right now, anything much below sp'4570/50 looks a stretch. 

Broadly, the bulls appear to have a clear run into Jan'2022. Inflation is a pressure on market sentiment, but many companies will be subtly widening/improving their margins. 

I still see commodities, and especially energy, as the most straight forward trade/investment into 2022. There will be sporadic washouts along the way, but broadly... the m/t pressure is unquestionably upward. The fact that Gold and Silver are finally also joining the commodity party, is supportive of that view. 

With just 32.5 trading days left of 2021, for even more charts, and whatever else I want to post about, you know where to find me in... the twilight zone.
   

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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 12 November 2021

Positive end to a negative week

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +33pts (0.7%) at 4682. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +0.3%. R2K +0.1%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and after some initial shaky gains, the market battled upward to build moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the testing continued...

Another milestone for SpaceX. Six engines test fired.


The afternoon saw considerable micro chop, with a closing hour micro spike to 4688, and settling at 4682. Thursday's black SPX candle failed to play out. Volatility cooled into the weekend, the VIX settling -7.8% to 16.29, as the mainstream had few concerns ahead of the weekend.
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Darkening skies... into the Dark Winter

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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