It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -4.5% (Nasdaq comp'), -3.0% (R2K), -1,9% (SPX), +0.4% (Trans), +0.6% (NYSE comp'), to +0.7% (Dow).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Three US equity indexes were net lower for the week, with three net higher.
The Nasdaq was powerfully lower, whilst the Dow was moderately higher.
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Looking ahead
Earnings:
M - $CLF $FITB $SMBK $STLD $KARO $AGNC $CCK $RBB $WASH $BOKF $HBCP $ZION $WRB
T - $GE $GM $RTX $NOC $MMM $MSCI $VICR $HAL $ALLY $NFLX $SPCX $ISRG $PEGA $NLY $UAL $COF $CB $ALK $ADC
W - $ABT $NEE $T $CME $DHR $LAD $TMO $PM $NTRS $WAB $TSLA $META $IBM $LRCX $TXN $TCBI $CACI $WDFC $MEDP $CCI
T - $LMT $NOC $CMCSA $ARGX $TSCO $HBAN $DOW $BX $AAL $VLO $BE $MXL $RNG $WDC $SRCE $VRSN $SLM $MRTN $NEM $KN
F - $AXP $SLB $ALV $BAH $GNTX $FLG $FHB $GRC $EAF $BCPC
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Econ-data/events
M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts, pending home sales
W - EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, leading indicators
F - PMI manu' & serv', consumer sent'
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Final note
There are twelve trading days until the results of the midterm elections. Once we're beyond knowing whether red team loses the House and perhaps the Senate, the market will have a clear run into early 2027.
Yes, there are the flash points of Ukraine and the middle east, but there are always geo-political concerns. Even when 'bad things' do happen, the market doesn't care for very long. What does matter is whether earnings are impacted.
I read around... and I see plenty of crash calling. Some are calling for -20%, -50%, a few... -80%. Most such calls are coming from the click-bait 'usual suspects', and are to be dismissed.
As I've said for many years... the ultimate equity sell signal is a rate cut. Show me a rate cut, and I'll turn bearish. On the flip side, a few more rate hikes are bullish, especially for the financials, as it improves net interest margins. Few want to hear about that.
I hold to my original rate outlook (from the spring)... two hikes before year end, Sept'16 and Dec'9. So... I am m/t bullish, unless rates are cut.
With most regimes spending ever more, the bond market is going to demand higher yields for years... perhaps decades to come. The implications are monstrous... but again, few want to hear about that.
... for what is episode 2026 of 'Planet Krazy'.
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Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on
Monday.
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