It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +4.2% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.9% (SPX), +0.6% (Dow), +0.4% (NYSE comp'), to -0.7% (Trans).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Four US equity indexes settled net higher for the week, with one net lower.
The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, whilst the Transports lagged.
The SPX, Nasdaq comp', and the Dow broke new historic highs.
More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.
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Looking ahead
A very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, econ-data, and an FOMC.
Earnings:
M - KMB, XLNX, STLD, AUY
T - JNJ, GE, MMM, LMT, VZ, DHI, FCX, AXP, RTX, NEE, AMD, MSFT, SBUX, TXN, COF, FFIV, NAVI
W - BA, T, ABT, BX, ANTM, AAPL, TSLA, FB, LRCX, NOW, TER, LEVI
T - AAL, MCD, MA, LUV, MO, NOC, V, SWKS, X, WDC, JNPR, MDLZ
F - CAT, LLY, CVX, HON
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Econ-data/events
M - -
T - FHFA HPI, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'
W - Durable Goods orders, EIA Pet' report.
FOMC announcement 2pm, with a press conf' 2.30pm.
T - Weekly jobs, Q4 GDP (print'1), new home sales, leading indicators
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.
*As Friday will be end month, expect considerable chop on higher vol'.
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| Sunset in the twilight zone |
Final note
We're already almost through the first month of 2021, a year which many are literally praying will be better than the nightmare of 2020. But will it?
For the moment, the mainstream cheerleaders are holding to the same hope since last summer, that vaccines will bring some degree of normalcy to both the economy, and society itself.
It should be clear, things aren't going to be as simple as that. First, many aren't going to take any of the vaccines. Instead, most countries appear set to become a dystopian two tier society, one that will leave a huge number of people living a subsistence lifestyle, with next to zero right to travel.
Then there is the matter of the tens of millions of businesses destroyed across the globe, which will be an economic drag for years to come. Indeed, many have no hope for the future. Family businesses that took decades to build, have closed... never to reopen. Do you think those financially and psychologically broken individuals, will care if the SPX prints 4K this spring, or 5K by year end?
The systemic fractures within the economy are beyond profound, but again... that is something you simply won't hear from the mainstream media. So long as the flashing boxes on their screens are mostly green, they just won't care about anything else.
As a collective, global equities are powering upward, juiced by QE and low/neg' rates from the central banks. It should be clear as crystal... when the next financial crash comes, the US fed will take the next step, and start buying equities.
Then its merely a case of whether they buy a little, most, or ALL of the equity market. If you think the latter is crazy talk, I'd remind you that in late January 2020, almost everyone was laughably dismissive of the notion that the western world would follow China, and lock down its population.
As shall be the case from here onward, if you want more, you know where to find me... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
