Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a mixed month for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +5.1% (South Africa), +3.9% (Hong Kong), +0.8% (Japan), +0.3% (China, Australia), -1.4% (Russia), -2.0% (USA), -2.1% (Germany), -3.1% (India), to -3.3% (Brazil).

Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow

The mighty Dow broke a new historic high of 31272, but settled -623pts (2.0%) at 29982. I would note the monthly 10MA at 27491, which will act as first major support around 28000 in February.

Germany – DAX

Japan – Nikkei

Brazil – Bovespa

Russia - RTSI

India – SENSEX

China – Shanghai comp'

South Africa – Dow

Hong Kong – Hang Seng

Australia – AORD

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Summary

Five world equity markets were net higher, with five net lower.

South Africa and Hong Kong lead the way higher, whilst India and Brazil lagged.

The USA, Germany, Brazil, and Indian markets broke new historic highs.

All ten world equity markets settled January above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.

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Looking ahead

Another very busy week is ahead with a truck load of earnings.

Earnings:

M - TMO, ON, NXPI, CRUS

T - BABA, PFE, UPS, XOM, BP, SIRU, HOG, MPC, AMZN, GOOGL, CMG, EA, FEYE, MTCH, AMGN

W - ABBV, SPOT, BIIB, HUM, PYPL, QCOM, EBAY, ALGN, QRVO, GRUB

T - CLX, BMY, MRK, PENN, YUM, PM, PINS, SNAP, F, PTON, ATVI, GILD, U, FTNT, GPRO, TMUS

F - REGN, EL

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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM manu', vehicle sales

T - Housing vacancies

W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet' report.

T - Weekly jobs, product/costs, factory orders

F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, consumer credit

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Final note

So... one month down... eleven to go. Whilst the USA, and a number of other world markets settled net lower, January is still to be seen as a net bullish month, not least with new historic highs.

There is clearly ZERO reason to believe the various central banks will collectively tighten monetary policy until inflation significantly picks up. Besides, most governments need the central banks to soak up the extra bonds they are issuing.

This year has already seen the incredible story of Wallstreetbets fighting the hedge funds, and to some extent... winning. It should also be a reminder that naked shorts - not least on margin, are never a good idea, even if your credit lines are in the hundreds of millions, or even billions.

February can only be expected to be more wild, as we continue to walk ever deeper into... the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Post FOMC bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +36pts (1.0%) at 3787. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled +1.0%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities saw a major upside reversal in pre-market, opening broadly higher, and building very significant gains into the afternoon.

Meanwhile...

Yes, it will end badly, but then... it always does.

The afternoon saw the SPX print 3830, but then some rather significant cooling to 3785, and settling at 3875. Volatility was naturally lower, the VIX settling -18.8% to 30.21.  

For posterity: Gamestop (GME), 5min, 3 day...

Another truly wild day for the leading Wallstreetbets stock.

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The grey horror of a London winter

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Chamath vs Wapner

US equity indexes closed powerfully lower, SPX -98pts (2.6%) at 3750. Nasdaq comp' -2.6%. Dow -2.0%. The Transports settled -2.9%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began the day on an ugly note, with the SPX spiraling to 3767, and a subsequent bounce to 3810. 

Chamath vs Wapner

Chamath made an appearance on the CNBC lunchtime show, with an update that he had closed out his Gamestop long (via option CALLS) trade, with the proceeds to go to the Barstool charity/fund. 

... continuing...

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For the FULL podcast version.. which I highly recommend...
see: https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/cnbchr?selected=CNBC4553694395
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The afternoon saw a secondary wave lower, as the Fed/Powell failed to inspire Mr Market...

Powell, CEO of the US branch of Print Central

The market broke new lows in the closing hour, with the SPX printing 3732.
Volatility spiked, the VIX settling +61.6% to 37.21.

Finally...

Stockmarket to the moon.... the irony indeed.

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Spacewalking

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday chop

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -5pts (0.1%) at 3849. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -1.6%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX printing a new historic high of 3870. The gains were shaky from the start though, and there was an opening reversal, with some cooling to 3847.

The afternoon saw considerable chop, if leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -0.7% to 23.02.

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

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The hypocritical mainstream

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, SPX +13pts (0.4%) at 3855. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -0.05%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

Equities opened a little choppy, if leaning on the upward side. The gains were shaky though, with the market seeing a very significant drop into the typical turn time of 11am. That washout filled a downside gap - from last Wednesday, with the SPX spiking-flooring from 3797. 

The hypocritical mainstream

Gamestop (GME) was the leading story on the CNBC lunchtime show...

 
Regarding Wallstreetbets and its posts on Gamestop, Joe Terranova argued "There is something inherently wrong within the regulatory structure, if this can be allowed".

Really Joe? This is grossly hypocritical, as he is seemingly fine with Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty touting 'buy AAPL, 144>152', but gods forbid if someone from the non-mainstream publish an outlook.

Indeed, I have to wonder if someone like Terranova would like some degree of Government regulation for yours truly even posting a chart on Twitter? 

Notably pushing back about this hypocrisy was...

 ... the Cramer, who was loudly touting the posts on Wallstreetbets as protected under the second amendment. Indeed... they are, and the Cramer deserves praise.

For posterity.... Gamestop, 5min, 3 day

 

A new hist' high of $159.18, but imploding to $61.13, and settling +18.0% to $76.74. On any basis, it was still a powerfully bullish day.
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The afternoon saw considerable chop, and that can be expected to broadly remain so into the Wed' 2pm FOMC announcement.

Volatility saw a spike to 26.63 with sp'3797, if cooling back to settle +5.8% to 23.19.
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Melting away

Full moon is this Thurs', Jan'28th

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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A rarity in London

 Snow is a rarity in the London metropolis...

Bullish snowmen

Looking toward the city

... should last a few days.

WandaVision, Marvel, Disney $DIS

Play has no limits, Playstation, Sony $SNE

... as night falls

A moonlit and very icy night

Full moon is Thurs' Jan'28th

Yours... bullish snow.

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +4.2% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.9% (SPX), +0.6% (Dow), +0.4% (NYSE comp'), to -0.7% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

Four US equity indexes settled net higher for the week, with one net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' lead the way higher, whilst the Transports lagged.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', and the Dow broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.

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Looking ahead

A very busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings, econ-data, and an FOMC.

Earnings:

M - KMB, XLNX, STLD, AUY

T - JNJ, GE, MMM, LMT, VZ, DHI, FCX, AXP, RTX, NEE, AMD, MSFT, SBUX, TXN, COF, FFIV, NAVI

W - BA, T, ABT, BX, ANTM, AAPL, TSLA, FB, LRCX, NOW, TER, LEVI

T - AAL, MCD, MA, LUV, MO, NOC, V, SWKS, X, WDC, JNPR, MDLZ

F - CAT, LLY, CVX, HON

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Econ-data/events

M - -

T - FHFA HPI, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'

W - Durable Goods orders, EIA Pet' report.

FOMC announcement 2pm, with a press conf' 2.30pm.

T - Weekly jobs, Q4 GDP (print'1), new home sales, leading indicators

F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

*As Friday will be end month, expect considerable chop on higher vol'.

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           Sunset in the twilight zone

Final note

We're already almost through the first month of 2021, a year which many are literally praying will be better than the nightmare of 2020. But will it?

For the moment, the mainstream cheerleaders are holding to the same hope since last summer, that vaccines will bring some degree of normalcy to both the economy, and society itself. 

It should be clear, things aren't going to be as simple as that. First, many aren't going to take any of the vaccines. Instead, most countries appear set to become a dystopian two tier society, one that will leave a huge number of people living a subsistence lifestyle, with next to zero right to travel.

Then there is the matter of the tens of millions of businesses destroyed across the globe, which will be an economic drag for years to come. Indeed, many have no hope for the future. Family businesses that took decades to build, have closed... never to reopen. Do you think those financially and psychologically broken individuals, will care if the SPX prints 4K this spring, or 5K by year end? 

The systemic fractures within the economy are beyond profound, but again... that is something you simply won't hear from the mainstream media. So long as the flashing boxes on their screens are mostly green, they just won't care about anything else.

As a collective, global equities are powering upward, juiced by QE and low/neg' rates from the central banks. It should be clear as crystal... when the next financial crash comes, the US fed will take the next step, and start buying equities. 

Then its merely a case of whether they buy a little, most, or ALL of the equity market. If you think the latter is crazy talk, I'd remind you that in late January 2020, almost everyone was laughably dismissive of the notion that the western world would follow China, and lock down its population.

As shall be the case from here onward, if you want more, you know where to find me... in the twilight zone.

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.