Saturday 5 September 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +7.6% (USA), +6.6% (Japan), +5.8% (Germany), +3.1% (Australia), +2.7% (India), +2.6% (China), +2.4% (Hong Kong), +2.0% (Russia), -1.9% (South Africa), to -3.4% (Brazil).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a fifth consecutive month, settling +2001pts (7.6%) to 28430. August settled above the 10MA. Monthly momentum is set to turn positive at the September 1st open. I would note the February historic high of 29568. Next key Fibonacci extrapolations are 34430 and 42158.

The first four trading days of September saw the Dow print 29199, but implode to 27644, and settle the week at 28133. The monthly 10MA stands at 26265, with monthly momentum (as expected) having turned (if fractionally) positive.


Germany – DAX


German equities marched higher for a fifth consecutive month, settling +719pts (5.8%) to 13033, the third monthly settlement above the 10MA, as the m/t trend has unquestionably turned back to bullish. Monthly momentum has turned positive, as new historic highs (13795) are only another 5% or so, to the upside.


Japan – Nikkei


After a mixed July, Japanese equities rebounded, settling +1429pts (6.6%) to 23139. A monthly settlement above the 10MA, with momentum setting fractionally positive.


Brazil – Bovespa


It was a choppy month for the Brazilian market, settling -3543pts (3.4%) to 99369, although that still made for a monthly settlement above the 10MA. Momentum remains deeply negative.


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities climbed for the 4th month of 5, settling +24pts (2.0%) to 1258. The August candle is a spike fail from around the 10MA. Momentum is slowly swinging back upward, but remains moderately negative.


India – SENSEX


Indian equities climbed for the 4th month of 5, settling +1021pts (2.7%) to 38628. The second monthly settlement above the key 10MA. Momentum is set to turn positive in Oct'/Nov'.


China – Shanghai comp'


Chinese equities climbed for the 4th month of 5, settling +85pts (2.6%) to 3395. The August settlement was above the key 10MA, but notably just shy of key price threshold of the 3400s.


South Africa – Dow


The South African market struggled, settling -32pts (1.9%) to 1662. August made for a settlement above the key 10MA, as momentum is set to turn positive in September.


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


The HK market climbed for the 4th month of 5, settling +581pts (2.4%) to 25177, although that was still short of the key 10MA. At the current rate, momentum will turn positive in Oct/Nov'.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities climbed for a fifth consecutive month, settling +187pts (3.1%) to 6245, which was above the key 10MA. Momentum is set to turn positive within Oct/Nov'



Summary

Eight world markets settled net higher, with two net lower.

The USA and Japan lead the way higher, with South Africa and Brazil lagging.

Eight world markets settled above their respective monthly 10MA, the two exceptions being Russia and Hong Kong.
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Looking ahead

It will be a short four day week.

Earnings:

M - -
T - WORK, LULU, COUP, CASY
W - AEO, NAV, ZS, GME, RH
T - PTON, CHWY, ORCL, AMRK
F - KR
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Econ-data:

M - *CLOSED*
T - Consumer credit
W - JOLTS
T - Weekly jobs, PPI, wholesale invent', EIA Pet' and NG
F - CPI, US T-Budget
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                   Summer is fading fast

Final note

August was unquestionably a strong month for world equities. September has started rather mixed though, not least within the USA, with tech leading the way lower.

For now, the m/t trend has to be seen as outright bullish. For that view to change, I would need to see  a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA, which for the Dow is around 26K, the SPX 3100s, and the 9600s for the Nasdaq comp'.

Ohh, and as for yours truly, I'm battling away to edit/update links/pages, and a few hundred other little things. I will endeavour to get some rest though, as market volatility is back, and set to heighten, ahead of the election.
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Enjoy the Labor day break.

Yours... PC... not PD. 
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*the next post on this page will likely appear by 5pm EDT on Tuesday Sept'8th.