Saturday 26 September 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (NYSE comp'), -1.7% (Dow), -1.4% (Trans), -0.6% (SPX), to +1.1% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

A fourth consecutive net weekly decline, breaking an intra low of 3209, and settling -21pts (0.6%) to 3298. Momentum is set to turn negative next week. I would note psy'3K, key price threshold of the 2940s, and the lower bollinger, currently at 2877.

Nasdaq comp'


Dow


NYSE comp'


Trans


Summary

Four of the five indexes saw net weekly declines, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'

The NYSE comp' lead the way lower, whilst the Nasdaq was very resilient.

More broadly, all five indexes are still holding above their respective monthly 10MA, as the m/t trend remains intact.

 
Looking ahead

A handful of earnings are due, with key economic data, some of which won't be pretty, reflective of the stalled summer reopening.

Earnings:

M - THO, WB, SINA

T - MKC, MU

W - NG

T - PEP, BBBY, CAG, STZ

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M -
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, Q2 GDP (print 3), Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, CPI, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales
F - Monthly jobs, consumer sent', factory orders.

*As Wednesday will be the end of September/Q3, expect considerably higher volume, on dynamic price action.
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Final note

It was a broadly bearish week for the equity market, as the market continues to cool from its Sept'2nd high of sp'3588. Having printed 3209 this past week, prime target of m/t supports - around 3100, isn't a particularly bold target into early October.  

As ever, the monthly settlement this Wednesday will be important. Equity bulls need have no concern unless <3100, and that looks out of range. So, September should settle with the m/t bullish trend intact.

We're another day, and week closer to the US election. Trump appears comfortably on track for a second term, and it should be clear, the market will be pleased about that. 

It remains the case, that if you can stay level headed, whilst the rest of the world have lost their minds, you're most certainly ahead of the curve... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.