September settles

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +27pts (+0.8%) at 3362. Nasdaq comp' +0.7%. Dow +1.2%. The Transports settled -0.6%. 

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, helped a little by European markets, but also by Chicago PMI and ADP jobs data. The afternoon saw a high of 3386, with some rather fierce cooling into the monthly/Q3 settlement. 

Volatility swung from the 25s to 27s in late afternoon, the VIX settling +0.4% to 26.37.

September settles...  SPX, m1b

 

The SPX broke a new historic high of 3588, but swung to 3209, and settling net lower by -137pts (3.9%). I would note the 10MA at 3118, which was very comfortably settled above, as the m/t bullish trend remained intact.

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Pre-Debate weak chop

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -16pts (0.5%) at 3335. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled -1.2%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and leaned weak into the early afternoon. There was a vain rally attempt, with the market leaning weak into the close.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling +0.3% at 26.27.

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The year... 2020.

As for the Trump/Biden debate this Tuesday evening, I will merely say, I'm ready, with enough popcorn for most of my legion of 9k on Twitter.
--

 

 

Next full moon... Oct'1st, 10.05pm BST

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Starting positive

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, sp +53pts (1.6%) at 3351. Nasdaq comp' +1.9%. Dow +1.5%. The Transports settled +1.5%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities began the week on a positive note, the SPX battling upward into the mid afternoon, with a touch of cooling into the close.

Volatility held up relative to the equity gains, the VIX settling -0.7% to 26.19. Tuesday will be 'interesting', not least ahead of the Trump/Biden event.
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A fine autumnal evening

Q4 is near

 

 

Breakthrough

Full moon is Oct'1st

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (NYSE comp'), -1.7% (Dow), -1.4% (Trans), -0.6% (SPX), to +1.1% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

A fourth consecutive net weekly decline, breaking an intra low of 3209, and settling -21pts (0.6%) to 3298. Momentum is set to turn negative next week. I would note psy'3K, key price threshold of the 2940s, and the lower bollinger, currently at 2877.

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

Four of the five indexes saw net weekly declines, the exception being the Nasdaq comp'

The NYSE comp' lead the way lower, whilst the Nasdaq was very resilient.

More broadly, all five indexes are still holding above their respective monthly 10MA, as the m/t trend remains intact.
–

 
Looking ahead

A handful of earnings are due, with key economic data, some of which won't be pretty, reflective of the stalled summer reopening.

Earnings:

M - THO, WB, SINA

T - MKC, MU

W - NG

T - PEP, BBBY, CAG, STZ

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M -
T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, Q2 GDP (print 3), Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, pers' income/outlays, CPI, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales
F - Monthly jobs, consumer sent', factory orders.

*As Wednesday will be the end of September/Q3, expect considerably higher volume, on dynamic price action.
-

Final note

It was a broadly bearish week for the equity market, as the market continues to cool from its Sept'2nd high of sp'3588. Having printed 3209 this past week, prime target of m/t supports - around 3100, isn't a particularly bold target into early October.  

As ever, the monthly settlement this Wednesday will be important. Equity bulls need have no concern unless <3100, and that looks out of range. So, September should settle with the m/t bullish trend intact.

We're another day, and week closer to the US election. Trump appears comfortably on track for a second term, and it should be clear, the market will be pleased about that. 

It remains the case, that if you can stay level headed, whilst the rest of the world have lost their minds, you're most certainly ahead of the curve... in the twilight zone.
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Battling upward into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a significantly positive note, sp +51pts (1.6%) at 3298. Nasdaq comp' +2.3%. Dow +1.3%. The Transports settled +1.4%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a choppy note, with the SPX printing an early low of 3228. From there, the market battled upward into the late afternoon.

Volatility cooled back, the VIX settling -7.5% to 26.38. Next week should offer another wave lower toward key m/t support of the 200dma and the monthly 10MA... both around 3100.

Your views...

A clear two thirds of you believe we'd need to see the SPX print <3K, to be enough to motivate the political hacks to agree on some form of stimulus bill 4. Frankly, I'd not be surprised if something was agreed if 3100.
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A very autumnal London

A fine end to the week

Saturn, the moon, and mighty Jupiter!

Full moon is Oct'1st

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Lower high, Lower Low

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +9pts (0.3%) at 3246. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled +0.2%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX printing a new cycle low of 3209. The rest of the day saw considerable chop, ending on a marginally positive note.

Volatility saw an early high of 30.49, with the VIX cooling back to settle -0.2% to 28.51.

Despite today's gains, today made for a lower high and a lower low, as prime target of around sp'3100 remains on track.  

--

10c/50f - Day'3 of Autumn

 

Full moon is Oct'1st

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Midweek failure

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -78pts (2.4%) at 3236. Nasdaq comp' -3.0%. Dow -1.9%. The Transports settled -1.1%. 

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but all the bulls could muster was sp'3323. From there, price slid into the mid afternoon, and spiraling into the close. For the bulls... it was a major midweek failure, and a reminder that the market remains s/t broken from 3588.

 

It was just another day for the CEO of Print Central - Powell

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +6.4% to 28.58. Tomorrow is a Thursday, and that will inherently favour the equity bears, as a test of m/t rising supports - around 3100, is very much on the menu.
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Positive chop

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +34pts (1.0%) at 3315. Nasdaq comp' +1.7%. Dow +0.5%. The Transports settled +0.8%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, and it didn't take long for indexes to turn red.

"No one cared who I was, until I put on the mask"

 

Yet.. the declines were minor, and brief, with the market battling choppily upward into the late  afternoon.

Volatility was itself subdued, the VIX settling -3.3% to 26.86. Wednesday offers a little higher, but prime target of 3100 appears on the menu.
--

Autumn begins

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Rough start

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly lower, sp -38pts (1.2%) at 3281. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -1.8%. The Transports settled -2.6%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, pressured via an array of things, not least powerfully lower European markets, concerns over UK/European lockdown restrictions, and increased election turmoil/uncertainty.

There were a few rally attempts, with the market leaning upward into the close, the Nasdaq comp' notably close to breakeven. 

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +7.5% to 27.78. The daily index and vix candles are supportive to the notion of a 1-2 day equity bounce.
--

The sun sets on summer 2020

Next full moon is Oct'2nd

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -0.6% (SPX, Nasdaq comp'), -0.03% (Dow), +0.5% (NYSE comp'), to +1.3% (Transports).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

A third consecutive net weekly decline, settling -21pts (0.6%) to 3319, with an intra low of 3292. Weekly momentum ticked lower for a third week, and is set to turn negative within 1-2 weeks. I would note the June high of 3233.


Nasdaq comp'

A third week lower, settling -60pts (0.6%) to 10793. Weekly momentum is set to turn negative next week, and I would note the Feb' high of 9838.


Dow

A third consecutive net weekly decline, if by a fractional -8pts (0.03%) to 27657. Weekly momentum is set to turn negative in 2-3 weeks.


NYSE comp'

The master index saw a moderate net weekly gain of +60pts (0.5%) to 12833. The weekly black candle leans s/t bearish, and I would note the April high of 11675.


Trans

The Transports was very resilient to the main market, breaking a new historic high of 11690, and settling +149pts (1.3%) to 11431. This week's candle is rather spiky, and is subtly indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.
–


Summary

The SPX and Nasdaq settled moderately net lower, the Dow was effectively flat, whilst the NYSE comp' was moderately higher, with the Transports significantly higher.

The Transports broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, as the m/t trend remains outright bullish.
–


Looking ahead

The schedule is pretty light, and that will give the market some time to focus on other things, not least the election.

Earnings:

M -
T - AZO, NKE, ACB, SFIX, KBH
W - GIS, CTAS, FUL
T - RAD, KMX, DRI, ACN, BB, JBL, COST, TRIP, MTN
F -
-

Econ-data:

M - Chicago Nat' act'
T - Existing home sales
W - PMI serv', PMI manu', EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, new home sales
F - Durable goods orders,
-

             Fading summer

Final note

We're another day, and another week closer to the election, with the death of Ginsberg raising the political and societal tensions even further.

A few weeks of equity cooling has done nothing to dent the m/t bullish trend. Even a foray into the mid/low sp'3100s wouldn't do any significant technical damage, so long as we quickly reverse from around there.

It remains my view that Trump will win a second term. It should be clear, the equity market would be pleased with that outcome. Further, we're clearly going to get more fiscal stimulus, whether before... or sometime after the  big vote.

As summer continues to fade away, I will merely say... enjoy each day, as best you can, as you never know... when your time might be up... in the twilight zone.

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Four red witches

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -37pts (1.1%) at 3319. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled -1.1%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, but 3362 was all the bulls could manage, before the market leaned weak, and slid to 3292 in mid afternoon. The late afternoon saw a moderate recovery, if still settling significantly lower for what was a redder than expected, quad-opex settlement.

Despite weak equities, volatility remained pretty subdued, the VIX printing 28.10, but settling -2.4% to 25.83.

Whilst the market is s/t oversold, and due a bounce next Monday, this week's settlement is pretty ugly, and has opened the door to a fuller washout to the mid 3100s, where a number of key aspects of support lay.
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50% filled to capacity?

Departing the nation of increased lockdown restrictions

The week settles

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