It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.4% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.3% (SPX), +0.6% (Dow), -0.6% (NYSE comp', Trans), to -3.1% (R2K).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Three US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with three net lower.
The Nasdaq comp' was very significantly higher, with the R2K powerfully lower.
More broadly, the SPX, Nasdaq comp', and Dow, are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, with the NYSE comp', R2K, and Trans below.
The SPX, and Nasdaq comp' have positive monthly momentum, whilst the Dow, NYSE comp', R2K, and Transports have negative momo'.
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Looking ahead
The week will be focused on the latest CPI and PPI data. Earnings will appear from a number of key retailers...
Earnings:
M - MNDY, TSN, TSEM, FSR, RUM, SBLK
T - HD, SE, PSFE, CSIQ, ASTS, SGML
W - TGT, AAP, JD, ZIM, TJX, XPEV, DAVA, FI, CTLT, PANW, CSCO, SQM
T - BABA, WMT, M, ARCO, NTES, NICE, WSM, WMG, BBWI, AMAT, ROST, GPS, BZH, DLB, WWD, GLOB, ZTO
F - BJ, ATKR, SPB, TWST
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Econ-data/events
M - US T-budget
T - CPI
W - PPI, retail sales, empire state manu', business' invent, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' Fed manu', indust' prod', home builder conf'.
F - Housing starts, *OPEX*
As Friday is OPEX, I'd expect considerable chop on higher vol'.
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| November 11th 2023, Veterans Day |
Final note
The climb from 4103 to 4418 across eleven trading days, amounts to a 7.7% gain. For the bears, its the stuff of nightmares. For the bulls... its a relief, if still below the July high of 4607.
What now? Bears can argue we're due a cooling wave, but Friday's price action offered zero sign of a s/t ceiling/turn. The daily chart offers the 4460s, and we do have a fair amount of price clustering within Aug/Sept' from around 4460.
The bigger question is whether 4607 will be taken out? Certainly, a fair number of the usual suspects are calling for broad upside into year end/early 2024.
My guess... we rollover from around 4450/60s, but whether such a cooling wave is just a retrace, before resuming upward into Christmas, very difficult to fathom.
I will merely add, the cautious (whether bullish or bearish) will be such, not least on threat of an escalation in the middle east. Ohh, and I have to wonder if the two words for next year will be 'oil embargo'.
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Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 4.20pm EST on
Monday.
