It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.4% (R2K, Trans), -1.3% (NYSE comp'), -0.9% (SPX), to -0.2% (Dow). Near term outlook leans net bullish into August.
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All six US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.
The Nasdaq lead the way lower, whilst the Dow was most resilient.
More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, and have increasingly negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes are m/t bearish.
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Looking ahead
A busy week is ahead, with an increasing number of earnings.
Earnings:
M - BAC, GS, SCHW, IBM
T - JNJ, HAL, LMT, ALLY, HAS, NFLX, JBHT, CALM, IBKR
W - ABT, BKR, TSLA, UAL, AA, CSX, KMI, STLD
T - T, AAL, NOK, FCX, BX, NUE, DOW, DHI, DPZ, PM, SNAP, COF, MAT, STX
F - CLF, VZ, AXP, SLB, TWTR, NEE, HCA
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Econ-data/events
M - Home builders index.
T - Building permits, housing starts
W - Existing home sales, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' Fed, Leading indi'
F - PMI Manu', PMI Serv'
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Final note
Whilst it was a net bearish week, recent price action is reflective that the bears are tired. Many of the garbage stocks appear to have secured floors within May, whilst the main market has seemingly floored in early June.
Regardless of the coming week, the last week of July will offer rate hike'4 (July 27th) of 75bps, with Q2 GDP (July 28th) set to come in negative, making the recession official.
My best guess is we battle upward into, if not across much of August. Most natural target are the sp'4300s, where the 200dma and monthly 10MA are lurking. The longer it takes... the 4300s would become the 4200s.
I see energy stocks as the most straight forward trade in the short term, even if oil doesn't come close to clearing the March $130s. I sleep well with OXY, SLB, and KMI.... RIG... not so much.
Summer subscription
offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com
Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
