May settles on a weak note

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -25pts (-0.6%) at 4132. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -1.0%. R2K -1.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, if only for s/t cyclical overbought reasons. The bears could only manage 4104, before a recovery into the afternoon. The late afternoon saw considerable chop, if leaning on the weaker side.

Volatility remains relatively elevated, the VIX settling +1.8% to 26.19.
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Fuel prices in the UK continue to break new records...
Gasoline: 173.9 x 3.785 x 1.2607 = $8.30
Diesel: 182.9 x 3.785 x 1.2607 = $8.73

-

May concludes with sunshine and thundery showers

–
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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +7.1% (Trans), +6.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +6.6% (SPX, R2K), +6.2% (Dow), to +5.7% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes saw very powerful net weekly gains.

The Transports lead the way up, whilst the NYSE comp' was a little laggy.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, and have increasingly negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes are m/t bearish.

–

Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week, with Monday CLOSED for Memorial Day.

Earnings:

M - CLOSED

T - SHIP, CRM, APPS, CHPT, HPQ, AMBA, VSCO

W - CPRI, GME, CHWY, HPE

T - HRL, LE, CRWD, LULU, RH, OKTA

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M - CLOSED

T - Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con'

W - PMI/ISM manu', JOLTS, construction, Fed Beige book, vehicle sales

T - Weekly jobs, ADP jobs, product/costs, factory orders

F - Monthly jobs, PMI/ISM serv' 

As Tuesday is the end of the month, I'd expect considerable chop on very high vol'.

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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Tuesday, May 31st.

Into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed on a very positive note, SPX +100pts (2.5%) at 4158. Nasdaq comp' +3.3%. Dow +1.8%. The Transports settled +2.1%. R2K +2.7%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly higher, and built very significant gains into the early afternoon.

Meanwhile...

 

 

Lebenthal is one of the mainstream who remains in denial about the recession. I almost envy such hope. For the average US consumer, higher electric, Nat' gas, gasoline, and food, will make for a very difficult summer.

The afternoon saw considerable micro chop, if still leaning upward, to end the week at the highs.

Volatility was naturally ground lower into the long weekend, the VIX settling -6.5% to 25.72.
-

Fuel prices in the UK break new records...

Gasoline: 171.9 x 3.785 x 1.2626 = $8.21

Diesel: 182.9 x 3.785 x 1.2626 = $8.74
-

 

Sustained high oil/fuel prices won't help the airlines

A fine end to the week

–

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Goodnight from London
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Reflecting back

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +79pts (2.0%) at 4057. Nasdaq comp' +2.7%. Dow +1.6%. The Transports settled +2.9%. R2K +2.2%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and built very significant gains into the afternoon.

Meanwhile... reflecting back, to just over a year ago...

It was barely a handful of months later, that Powell would begin the 'Transitory' nonsense.

... with Aunt Janet... similarly a believer in 'transitory'. I'd note the US 10yr, having since doubled.

Further, many of the mainstream cheerleaders are still in denial of the recession...

I hold to that, as based on recent econ-data and various corporate outlooks, Q2 GDP might come in -2.5% or worse. Ohh, and do you think Q3 will be better than Q2 ?
-

The late afternoon saw the SPX print a new bounce high of 4075.
Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -3.1% to 27.50.

–
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Goodnight from London
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Midweek gains

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, SPX +37pts (0.9%) at 3978. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.2%. R2K +1.8%. 

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, with the SPX cooling to 3925, but swung upward to 3979. The afternoon saw considerable chop.

Volatility was ground a little lower, the VIX settling -3.7% to 28.37. Tomorrow is a Thursday, which tends to favour the equity bears.
-

The mighty Airbus A380

A fine end to the day

 
 

Bullish cats

–
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Goodnight from London
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Normal service resumed

US equity indexes mostly closed broadly lower, SPX -31pts (0.8%) at 3942. Nasdaq comp' -2.3%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled -1.3%. R2K -1.5%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, partly for s/t cyclical reasons, weak world markets, but especially due to SNAP and ANF. The latter were the latest reminders that the US economy is rapidly slowing, and falling into recession.

The SPX spiraled into the mid morning, printing 3875. There was a choppy recovery into the late afternoon, but that still made for most indexes settling broadly/significantly lower, as 'normal service' resumed.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +3.4% to 29.45.
-

Meanwhile...

 
Record high fuel prices in the UK (at least in GBP)

Gasoline: 168.9 x 3.785 x 1.2525 = $8.01
Diesel: 180.9 x 3.785 x 1.2525 = $8.58

... which isn't making for a 'strong consumer' in the UK. 

 --

–
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Goodnight from London
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Starting positive

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +72pts (1.9%) at 3973. Nasdaq comp' +1.6%. Dow +2.0%. The Transports settled +2.0%. R2K +1.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened broadly positive. The gains were very shaky though, with the SPX coming close to turning red. There was a secondary push upward into the early afternoon.

Meanwhile...

-
The afternoon saw considerable chop, if leaning on the upward side.

Volatility cooled back, if remaining elevated, the VIX settling -3.2% to 28.48.

–
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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -6.7% (Trans), -3.8% (Nasdaq comp'), -3.0% (SPX), -2.9% (Dow), -1.2% (NYSE comp'), to -1.1% (R2K).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes were net lower for the week.

The Transports lead the way lower, whilst the R2K was most resilient.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, and have increasingly negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes are m/t bearish. 

–

Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - ZM

T - BBY, ANF, RL, WOOF, CSIQ, DSX, DOLE, SBLK, JWN, URBN, TOL

W - DKS, NVDA, SNOW, SPLK, BOX, WSM, NTNX

T - BABA, M, DLTR, DG, BKE, BIDU, MDT, JACK, BURL, COST, MRVL, ZS, ADSK, ULTA, DELL, GPS, WDAY, AEO, FTCH

F - CGC, BIG, SAFM, PDD

-

Econ-data/events

M -

T - PMI manu', PMI serv', new home sales

W - Durable goods orders, EIA Pet', FOMC mins (2pm)

T - Weekly jobs, Q1 GDP (print 2), pending home sales

F - Pers' income/spending, Intl' trade, consumer sent'. 

*As Monday May 30th is CLOSED for Memorial day, I would expect the preceding Friday to be subdued on light vol'.

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Final note

It was yet another week for the equity bears, as the US equity market remains m/t broken. Retail earnings from WMT and TGT sure didn't help.

The mainstream cheerleaders are understandably getting increasingly riled up at the Fed/Powell. Rather ironically, the Cramer is annoyed that Powell hasn't raised rates fast enough to combat inflation. 

How long until Cramer is banging on the table, demanding rate cuts, and renewed QE?
What level of the SPX will be needed to see that happen?

If the Fed don't 'back off', whilst I'd expect a bounce from the 3500s to around 4K, then the problems would really begin in equity land.

For now, most are still in denial, as we're seeing every day on the CNBC lunchtime show. Growth was negative in Q1, and there is zero reason to expect Q2 to be any better. 

By definition... when we have the first print of Q2 GDP - due late July, the US will officially be in recession.

How will the 'there will be no recession... the consumer is strong', cheerleaders, such as O'Leary, Belski, Ms. Link, Farmer Jim, and Ms' Harrington, respond?

Oh yeah, we know... it'll be.... "no one could have seen this coming".

As an aside, it'll be interesting to see how the Biden admin' respond to an economy in recession, and with high inflation. Perhaps... just... blame the Fed? Which in many ways... would be partly valid. 

Regardless of the immediate term, big target is the lower monthly bollinger, currently in the sp'3400s, but which will have climbed to around the 3500s in June.

I am pushing hard to offer some perspective. Subscribe/support...

For details, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

A seventh week lower

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX +0.6pts (0.01%) at 3901. Nasdaq comp' -0.3%. Dow +0.03%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K -0.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a broadly positive note, with the SPX printing 3943. The gains were always shaky though, and with the sellers appearing, indexes turned.

The afternoon saw increasing weakness, with the SPX printing a new low for the year of 3810 - which is also the 38% fib retrace of 2189>4818.

Meanwhile... on the CNBC lunchtime show...

So many books... so many 'smart guys', all getting their ass kicked by Mr Market this year.
-

The late afternoon saw a ramp, although it was arguably mostly short covering into the weekend/OPEX. Despite the recovery, that still made for a seventh consecutive net weekly decline. The mighty Dow was lower for an eighth week, the worse run since 1923 !

Volatility remained elevated, the VIX printing 32.91, if cooling back to settle +0.3% to 29.43.
-

Awaiting golden sunshine...

Golden sunshine!

–

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Goodnight from London
--

 

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