It was a bearish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.2% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.8% (SPX), -1.4% (Transports), -1.0% (Dow), -0.2% (NYSE comp'), to +1.5% (R2K).
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
R2K
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
Five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week, with one net higher.
The Nasdaq lead the way lower, with the R2K managing sig' gains.
More broadly, the SPX, Nas', Dow, R2K, and Trans are under their respective monthly 10MA. The NYSE is holding above.
Monthly momentum is positive (if weakening) for the SPX, Dow, NYSE, and Trans, whilst increasingly negative for the Nas' and R2K
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Looking ahead
The schedule is somewhat lighter, which will give the market time to focus on broader macro-economic and geo-political concerns. Price action will be skewed, due to OPEX, and the fact that Friday is the lead into a three day weekend.
Earnings:
M - CAR
T - MAR, ARCH, RBLX, UPST, ABNB, DVN, VIAC, WYNN, SEDG, CF
W - SHOP, TTD, CROX, GOLD, KHC, HLT, GNRC, ADI, AMCX, NVDA, AMAT, MRO, CSCO, DASH, FSLY
T - PLTR, WMT, YETI, ROKU, DBX, SHAK
F - DKNG, DE,
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Econ-data/events
M - -
T - PPI, Empire state manu'
W - Retail sales, import/export prices, Busin' invent', FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, housing starts, Phil' Fed
F - Existing home sales, leading indi'. *OPEX*
As Friday is OPEX, I would expect considerable chop on higher vol'.
As the following Monday Feb'21st is CLOSED, we could expect some degree of 'rats selling into the long weekend'.
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Final note
Friday ended on an ugly note, as the mainstream were understandably concerned about higher inflation, which will necessitate bigger rate hikes than expected. Further, there is the issue of Russia/Ukraine. On balance, I'd still expect nothing to happen until after the Winter Olympic Games have concluded (Sunday, Feb'20th).
I understand that many get wrapped up in the day to day market noise. If there is anything that I excel at, its providing some perspective.
I think many of you would do well to go stare at some of those monthly charts for a good while. I would especially note how all the US indexes have rolled over, with momentum set to turn negative in all of them within March/April.
The setup is pretty similar to Feb'2020. It would be somewhat ironic if the market is crashing in March, around the time of the two year anniversary of the previous collapse low.
So, regardless of the week to come, I would be more focused on the monthly charts, which are increasingly sounding alarm bells for March. Indeed, if you read around, some others are already touting 'Beware the Ides of March'.
For charts, charts, more charts, and whatever else I want to say.... you know where to find me.
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Have a good weekend
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