Bearish monthly settlement

US equity indexes closed on a mixed note, SPX -10pts (0.2%) at 4373. Nasdaq comp' +0.4%. Dow -0.5%. The Transports settled +0.4%. R2K +0.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened very significantly lower, but all the bears could manage was sp'4326, before a recovery into late morning to 4388. The afternoon saw renewed weakness, but with a closing hour recovery. Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +9.3% to 30.15.

SPX, monthly

The SPX settled under its monthly 10MA for the first time since April 2020. Under my criteria, that makes for a bearish monthly settlement. Monthly momentum is due to turn sustainably negative as of the Tuesday March 1st open. Natural target is the lower monthly bollinger, currently at 3117. Call it 'crazy talk', but that is the target.

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Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a wild week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.6% (Transports), +1.5% (R2k), +1.1% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.8% (SPX), +0.2% (NYSE comp'), to -0.1% (Dow). Near term outlook threatens renewed downside.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

Five US equity indexes were net higher for the week, with one net lower.

The Transports lead the way upward, whilst the Dow laggard.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are currently trading under their respective monthly 10MA. Further, monthly momentum for the Nasdaq comp', R2K, and Dow, is negative. The other three indexes can be expected to follow in March.

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Looking ahead

There is a fair amount on the schedule, not least the CEO of Print Central, who is due both Wed' and Thurs' morning, to tout his monetary nonsense to the political hacks.

Earnings:

M - BRK.B, LCID, ZM, NVAX, WDAY, HPQ, SDC

T - TGT, SE, BIDU, DPZ, WKHS, KSS, UWMC, SOFI, AMC, PLUG, CRM, WISH, BROS, JWN

W - PSFE, ANF, DLTR, SNOW, CHPT, CPNG, AEO, VSCO, SPLK

T - BBY, KR, BJ, BILI, BURL, MRVL, COST, AVGO, GPS, SWBI

F -

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Econ-data/events

M - Intl' trade, Chicago PMI

T - PMI/ISM manu', construction

W - ADP jobs, EIA Pet' report, Fed Beige book (2pm) *Powell, House (10am).

T - Weekly jobs, product/costs, PMI/ISM serv', factory orders  *Powell, Senate (10am).

F - Monthly jobs

*As Monday is end month, I'd expect more dynamic price action on higher vol'.

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Final note

It was a wild week in equity land. Whilst there was a powerful Thurs'>Friday recovery, indexes are still putting in lower highs and lower lows... which isn't bullish!

Frankly, the equity bears have nothing to prove. It is the bulls that should remain desperate to re-take multiple aspects of old support.... now new resistance.

In the case of the SPX, a February close under 4450 would make for a decisive bearish monthly settlement. Technically, that would offer natural target of the lower monthly bollinger, currently at 3117. 

I'd keep in mind that the Nasdaq comp' and R2K saw bearish monthly settlements as of Jan'31st. We're really just seeing other indexes follow.

To those chasing this market upward, not least on margin, I have one simple thing to say...

Good luck with that.

For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Bouncing into the weekend

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +95pts (2.2%) at 4384. Nasdaq comp' +1.6%. Dow +2.5%. The Transports settled +2.6%. R2K +2.3%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened positive, and after some initial chop, built very significant gains into the afternoon. The rest of the day saw considerable micro chop, if with a marginal higher high in the closing hour. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -9.0% to 27.59.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Thursday reversal

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +63pts (1.5%) at 4288. Nasdaq comp' +3.3%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +2.1%. R2K +2.7%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened rather powerfully lower, spooked by overnight news that Russia had sent a force into Ukraine. Yet there was a reversal from the open, and it continued into the early afternoon.

Biden appeared in the afternoon, once again with talk of sanctions. The equity market was content, especially with a reiteration that US troops/forces will NOT be fighting Russia.

The late afternoon saw increasing upside, which was especially impressive for a Thursday. 

Volatility spiked to 37.79, but cooled to settle -2.3% to 30.32. Friday might be equally wild, as whilst the morning might begin positive, how many of the rats will want to hold long into the weekend?

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Bullish Golden Sunshine!

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Another failed bounce

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -79pts (1.8%) at 4225. Nasdaq comp' -2.6%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -1.4%. R2K -1.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with indexes quickly turning negative. Price action into the afternoon was increasingly weak, as every rally attempt is failing.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +7.7% to 31.02. Tomorrow is a Thursday, and whilst we might open positive, the bears could seek psy'4K before end month.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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A broken market

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, SPX -44pts (1.0%) at 4304. Nasdaq comp' -1.2%. Dow -1.4%. The Transports settled -1.6%. R2K -1.4%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

The US market remains broken. Whilst overnight very significant declines were almost entirely reversed by the Tuesday open, the sellers did appear, with the SPX sliding to 4267.

Biden announced sanctions against Russia, but they were minor, and the market used it as an excuse to bounce into the closing hour, if still settling significantly lower.

The VIX printed 31.53 around 2pm, if cooling back to settle +3.8% to 28.81. Whilst the s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bulls, this market IS broken, and headed far lower into the spring.
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Another day closer to spring

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -1.9% (Dow), -1.8% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.6% (SPX, NYSE comp'), -0.9% (R2K), to -0.2% (Trans).

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

–

Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.

The Dow lead the way lower, whilst the Transports was resilient.

Multi-week price structure is a bear flag.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA.  

Monthly momentum has turned negative in the Dow, having followed the Nasdaq comp' and R2K. The other three indexes should follow, whether before end month, or as of the March 1st open.

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Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week, with Monday closed. 

Earnings:

M - APA, WSM

T - HD, M, MDT, DNUT, CBRL, TDOC, SPCE, PANW, FANG, MOS, RIG, CZR

W - LOW, OSTK, TJX, PBR, BHC, FUBO, SKLZ, HTZ, CLOV, EBAY, LMND, BKNG

T - BABA, MRNA, NKLA, NCLH, W, SQ, COIN, ETSY, BYND, OPEN, ZS, RKT, OXY

F - FL, EOG, NOG, TREE, MGI, DSX

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Econ-data/events

M - *CLOSED*

T - Case Shiller HPI, PMI manu' & serv', consumer con'

W -

T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q4 (print'2), new home sales, EIA Pet'

F - Pers' income/outlays, consumer sent', pending home sales

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Final note

It was another week for the equity bears. Those trying to 'buy the floor' are getting regularly stopped out. I have to expect the January 24th lows to be taken out. Whether its before end month, or not until early March is of no real importance.

What is important are the bigger weekly and monthly charts, all of which are warning of increasing problems into the spring.

Some believe we've already had a massive drop, and for loss making garbage like DKNG, ROKU, PLTR, and HOOD, that is true. Yet the main market is only marginally below recent historic highs. 

March offers far lower levels, and that won't require the Russians to make a move into the Ukraine. We've valid concerns of a slowing US/global economy, civil unrest, higher inflation, and monetary tightening.

If you're not hearing alarm bells, maybe you need to book an appt' with your doctor.   

For more of the same...

For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Tuesday Feb'22nd.

Rats selling into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, SPX -31pts (0.7%) at 4348. Nasdaq comp' -1.2%. Dow -0.7%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K -0.9%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities were moderately higher in pre-market, but by the open... they had already turned to minor declines... reflective of underlying weakness. The morning saw considerable chop, if increasingly leaning on the weaker side.

The afternoon saw yet another bounce attempt to fractional gains, but the closing hour saw a fine example of 'rats selling into the long weekend'.

Volatility picked up to 29.71, if settling -1.3% to 27.75.
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Atlantic Storm Eunice caused a few minor issues

A sunny... if windswept end to the week

 

The waning moon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Just another red Thursday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -94pts (2.1%) at 4380. Nasdaq comp' -2.9%. Dow -1.8%. The Transports settled -1.9%. R2K -2.6%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

It was a Thursday, and once more... there were more red boxes than green. There were a few bounce attempts... but all failed, as many are understandably spooked about holding across the long weekend.

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +15.7% to 28.11. Whilst the bulls can argue the market is s/t oversold... Friday threatens a severe case of 'rats selling into the weekend'.
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Meanwhile...

Unleaded gasoline: 145.9 pence per liter, x 3.785 (liter> US gallon) x 1.3626 (GBP >USD) = $7.52.

I'm somewhat surprised its not already $8.00 a gallon. In any case... UK (and globally) drivers are set to see higher prices into the spring, if not across the summer. $10.00 a gallon would be quite the story!

Its a sign. Well, yes... literally.

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Moody skies... ahead of Atlantic storm Eunice

Ohh the mystery... and the market drama!

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Underlying weakness

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX +4pts (0.1%) at 4475. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.2%. The Transports settled +0.5%. R2K +0.2%.

SPX - daily

VIX - daily

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, with choppy cooling to 4429. There was a not surprising latter day recovery, but underlying price action remains weak... as some of the mainstream recognise...

Krinsky of BTIG... touting sub 4K

Supports... 4222, psy'4K, the 38% fib' of 3815, and then the 3500s. Lower monthly bollinger is currently in the 3100s... if rising each month. Even if Russia doesn't make a move on the Ukraine, the market is going to struggle with CPI soon to print >8.0%. 

Volatility cooled back, the VIX settling -5.5% to 24.29. Tomorrow is a Thursday, and the past two haven't been so green.

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The clouds break as Storm Dudley moves to the East

Mighty full moon!

–

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and would like more of the same, then subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com