Wednesday 22 September 2021

The Do-Nothing Fed

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly higher, SPX +41pts (0.9%) at 4395. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K +1.5%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note, and built significant gains into the early afternoon. Print Central issued a press release at 2pm...


... with rates not surprisingly held at 0-0.25%, and QE maintained at $120bn a month. The fed alluded that QE taper will soon begin. Most recognise, between now and mid 2022, we're still looking at a net $600/700bn of 'new money', most of which will find its way into equities.

The fed's outlook on inflation has been consistently wrong for decades.

Just one hike in 2022, and three in 2023? Not if core CPI is >7%!
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FedEx flying high, the stock... not so much.

The late afternoon saw considerable minor chop, if still leaning on the upward side. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settled -14.3% to 20.87.
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Ray of hope


Autumn has begun

 

Always bullish moon


Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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