Messy end to Q3

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, SPX -51pts (1.2%) at 4307. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -1.7%. R2K -0.9%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened positive, but the gains were shaky from the start, and it didn't take long for indexes to turn negative. The afternoon saw considerable chop, leaning increasingly weak into end month/Q3, with the SPX settling at 4307, just 2pts above the 'Evergrande Monday' low.

Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 24.71, and settling +2.6% to 23.14.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Shaky rebound

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX +6pts (0.2%) at 4359. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.5%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, with some choppy cooling into the late afternoon.

Meanwhile... somewhat to the south of yours truly...

 The live coverage continues...

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Volatility was mixed, the VIX printing 23.79, but settling -3.0% to 22.56. I would merely add that the SPX candle is black, with a mirror hollow red reversal in the VIX. That fact tomorrow is a Thursday should at least moderately unsettle the bulls.
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Exec' jet: I-DBRR, the only way to travel

A fine autumn evening

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Rough Tuesday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, SPX -90pts (2.0%) at 4352. Nasdaq comp' -2.8%. Dow -1.6%. The Transports settled -1.0%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

Equities opened broadly weak, with the SPX sliding to 4346 in the early afternoon. Meanwhile...

US T-Sec Yellen, with the CEO of Print Central... Powell, speaking to the US political hacks. Notably, Senator Elizabeth Warren deemed Powell a 'Dangerous man'.

Do you think the current fiscal or monetary policy of either, are helping the following?
 

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The afternoon saw considerable equity chop, with a rather ugly closing hour. Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +23.9% to 23.25. With two days left of the month/Q3, now its a case of what degree (if any) of rebound we see.
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A rainy day in autumn

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Mixed Monday

US equity indexes closed very mixed, SPX -12pts (0.3%) at 4443. Nasdaq comp' -0.5%. Dow +0.2%. The Transports settled +0.9%. R2K +1.5%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, and remained that way across the day. Indexes were rather mixed though, with broad strength in the Transports and R2K, whilst the Nasdaq and SPX mostly leaned weak.

Volatility picked up, but the gain was largely technical (due to the new week), the VIX settling +5.7% to 18.76.

WTIC appears set to clear the key $77.00 threshold, with the R2K to follow with a bullish breakout. If both are seen, it gives high confidence for year end/early 2022.
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A brisk autumn evening

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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An autumnal Sunday

 Just another Sunday in late September...

A fine Sunday

Bullish construction, yes?

The best... if riskiest way to travel

A fine autumn evening

Not so much 'passing ships in the night', as...

The first double decker (Airbus A380) I've seen since March 2020

The twilight zone

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Yours... awaiting another week.

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +0.6% (Dow, R2K), +0.5% (SPX, NYSE comp', Trans), to +0.02% (Nasdaq comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

R2K

Trans

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Summary

All six US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Dow and R2K lead the way higher, with the Nasdaq comp' lagging.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.
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Looking ahead

Earnings:

M - ACB

T - MU, VWE

W - JBIL, NG

T - KMX, BBBY, PAYX, MKC, JEF

F -

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Econ-data/events

M - Durable Goods Orders

T - Intl' trade, Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con'

W - Pending home sales, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, GDP Q2 (print'3), Chicago PMI

F - PMI/ISM manu', construction, consumer sent'

*As Thursday is end month and Q3, I would expect considerable chop on distinctly higher volume.

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Final note

Do you remember the mainstream upset over Evergrande on Monday? Was I really supposed to think that would impact Q4 earnings for Occidental Petroleum, US Steel, or Microsoft? 

How many times over the last decade have we been through this, fifty, or more than a hundred? 

This week's rebound was just another reminder of underlying main market strength. The fact we managed net weekly gains is especially impressive. Some sectors - such as energy and financials, even managed bullish engulfing weekly candles, which bode very well for the main market next week, and into October/Q4.

Ohh, but you're still worried about a crash in October? Again, I'd refer you to the bullish engulfing weekly candles in energy and financials. Go stare at a chart of XLE of XLF for a good hour or two.  

All the equity bulls are missing is a bullish breakout in the R2K >2330s, and WTIC >$77.00. Both of those appear due within the near term.

In these increasingly dark and twisted times, an ever smaller number of people are managing to maintain any degree of perspective. For more charts, and whatever else I want to post about - outside the control of the mainstream media hacks, you know where to find me in... the twilight zone.

If you value my work on Blogger, Twitter, and want more of the same, subscribe to my intraday service! For details and the latest offers, see: https://www.tradingsunset.com

Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Powering upward

US equity indexes closed significant higher, SPX +53pts (1.2%) at 4448. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +1.5%. The Transports settled +1.7%. R2K +1.8%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, and built significant gains into the afternoon.

The afternoon saw the SPX print 4465, if cooling back to settle at 4448.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -10.7% to 18.63.
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Time to fly away home

A fine autumn day

 

Waning moon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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The Do-Nothing Fed

US equity indexes mostly closed significantly higher, SPX +41pts (0.9%) at 4395. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +1.0%. The Transports settled -0.5%. R2K +1.5%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note, and built significant gains into the early afternoon. Print Central issued a press release at 2pm...

... with rates not surprisingly held at 0-0.25%, and QE maintained at $120bn a month. The fed alluded that QE taper will soon begin. Most recognise, between now and mid 2022, we're still looking at a net $600/700bn of 'new money', most of which will find its way into equities.

The fed's outlook on inflation has been consistently wrong for decades.

Just one hike in 2022, and three in 2023? Not if core CPI is >7%!
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FedEx flying high, the stock... not so much.

The late afternoon saw considerable minor chop, if still leaning on the upward side. Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settled -14.3% to 20.87.
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Ray of hope

Autumn has begun

 

Always bullish moon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weak rebound

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, SPX -3pts (0.1%) at 4354. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.1%. The Transports settled -0.2%. R2K +0.2%

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a moderately positive note, but the gains were shaky from the start, and it didn't take long for most indexes to turn red... if only fractionally. 

Meanwhile..

Few on the streets of Philadelphia are concerned with Evergrande of China, or its impact on the US equity/capital markets.
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The afternoon saw considerable chop, leaning weak into the close On any basis... it was a distinctly weak rebound, and doesn't bode well for the near term.

Volatility was itself pretty volatile, the VIX settling -5.2% to 24.36.
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The last sunset of summer 2021

Autumn equinox 3.20pm EST, Sept'22

The waning moon

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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