March/Q1 settle

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, SPX +14pts (0.4%) at 3973. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled -0.6%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, with the SPX clawing upward to break a new historic high of 3994 in the 1pm hour.

Meanwhile...

No more confetti for the millennial gamblers

Its just another sign of the society we live within... token gestures to satisfy the political hacks, whilst the casino style speculative mania continues to heighten.

The late afternoon saw some moderate cooling to settle at 3973.

Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -1.1% to 19.40.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
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Weak leaning chop

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -12pts (0.3%) at 3958. Nasdaq comp' -0.1%. Dow -0.3%. The Transports settled +1.4%. R2K +1.7%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, for what was just another day of mostly weak leaning chop.

Meanwhile...

 

A fine launch for Starship 11, and whilst it didn't end well, that is what test launches are for!

Volatility was relatively subdued, the VIX settling -5.4% to 19.61, reflective of underlying calm... ahead of the Easter break. 
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21C/70F... a preview of summer warmth

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Mixed Monday

US equity indexes closed rather mixed, SPX -3pts (0.1%) at 3971. Nasdaq comp' -0.6%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.5%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, despite positive Asian and European markets. The SPX cooled to 3943, before recovering into the mid afternoon.

Meanwhile...

 

A vaccine passport is necessary to get to the moon?
-

The sp'4100s are certainly realistic within April.

The late afternoon saw considerable minor chop, with the SPX coming within just 2pts of recent historic highs. Volatility was relatively muted, the VIX pushing to 21.60, but cooling back to settle +10.0% to 20.74.
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Bullish spring flowers

14c/57f... as summer 2021 is coming!

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a positive week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +3.0% (Transports), +1.6% (SPX), +1.4% (Dow), +0.8% (NYSE comp'), to -0.6% (Nasdaq comp).

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500

Nasdaq comp'

Dow

NYSE comp'

Trans

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Summary

Four indexes were net higher for the week, with one net lower.

The Transports lead the way higher, whilst the Nasdaq lagged.

The Transports broke a new historic high.

More broadly, all five US equity indexes are trading above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend as bullish.

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Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week, as the market will be closed for Good Friday. 

Earnings:

M -

T - BB, CHWY, LULU

W - WBA, MU, PVH

T - KMX

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M -

T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'

W - ADP jobs, Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EIA Pet'

T - Weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales

F - *CLOSED* for 'Good Friday'. BLS monthly jobs

*As Wednesday is end month/Q1, I would expect more dynamic price action, on distinctly higher volume.

**As Friday Apr'2nd is closed, Thursday will lean to being a day of considerable price chop on light volume.
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Final note

The second half of Thursday and especially Friday's closing hour, were further reminders of underlying main market strength. It remains pretty amusing to see how twitchy many become when the market isn't breaking a new historic high every... single ... day. Literally, even a sporadic 2-3 day cooling wave will see many start to openly question if an imminent 10-15% correction is underway.

Yours truly is well aware of the crash calling out there, and whilst the weekly and monthly charts are over-stretched, there is zero sign of a mid, never mind long term ceiling. 

Mr Market will certainly want to wash out the short stops from around sp'4000, and draw in another tranche of bullish chasers. It should be clear, Monday will offer an opening gap straight into the 4000s. 

What then? From 4K, its only another 25% to psy'5K. It can't be long until we start seeing some of the mainstream institutions start issuing 5K targets for late 2021 to mid 2022.  

There are 'other issues' of course, but not here. If you are tired of the mainstream media hacks, and believe in freedom of speech, then you know where to find me... in the twilight zone.
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Have a good weekend

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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.

Closing out strong

US equity indexes closed very significantly higher, SPX +65pts (1.7%) at 3974. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +1.4%. The Transports settled +2.3%. 

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities began the day on a moderately positive note, with the SPX pushing above upper s/t declining trend of 3925... and provisionally confirming broader price structure of a bull flag. 

Meanwhile...

US Trans-Sec' Buttigieg was on clown finance TV touting a new tax based on miles driven, rather than just increasing the current gasoline tax. Whilst that makes some sense - with the move from ICE to EV, there is arguably a much darker reason... that of tracking people. After all, if its a mileage tax, then all vehicles are going to have to 'report to base' daily/weekly/monthly/yearly miles driven. 

I'd doubt the Govt' would have people manually submit the data. No... it'll be via some kind of wireless system, with all vehicles mandated to be monitored/tracked 24/7/365.

So... for those of you looking forward to a communist/totalitarian state... we're firmly on track.
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The afternoon saw considerable chop, but leaning rather strongly upward in the closing hour to break a new intraday high of 3978... a mere 22pts from giant psy' 4K.

Volatility was ground lower, the VIX settling -4.8% to 18.86... a key weekly settlement under the 20 threshold.
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6c/43f, a very chilly spring evening

Full moon... March 28th

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Holding key supports

US equity indexes closed on a positive note, SPX +20pts (0.5%) at 3909. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +1.6%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a weak note, with the SPX slipping to 3853. There was a (not surprising) post 11am recovery, with upside (if choppy) into the late afternoon.  

Meanwhile...

The CEOs of Facebook, Twitter, and Google, faced questions from the political hacks. It is odd to feel any degree of sympathy for the Zuckerberg and Dorsey... but I did.

Volatility saw a high of 23.55, before melting back, the VIX settling -6.6% to 19.81. The s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bulls.
-

The sun sets on another Thursday

Full moon is Sunday March 28th

A little closer

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Midweek mix

US equity indexes closed very mixed, SPX -21pts (0.5%) at 3889. Nasdaq comp' -2.0%. Dow -0.01%. The Transports settled +1.0%. R2K -2.3%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, with the SPX leaning upward to 3942 around 11am. The afternoon saw some distinct weakness, with the SPX settling at the lows. 

Volatility picked up, the VIX settling +4.4% to 21.20.
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Mid morning... above London

 

Another fine spring day

Full moon is Sunday March 28th

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Cooling back

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, SPX -30pts (0.8%) at 3910. Nasdaq comp' -1.1%. Dow -0.9%. The Transports settled -1.8%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a choppy... if weak note, and remained that way into the early afternoon. 

Meanwhile...

 

Dallas Fed Governer Kaplan was touting CPI to max out at 2.25-2.50% this year, before 'settling back' in 2022. It remains the case that Print Central is the least reliable when it comes to any type of economic forecast. A random number generator (such as perhaps what the BLS use for employment data) would be better?

What if CPI climbs above 3.5% (which is my threshold for raising rates) this summer? Oh yeah, the Fed will just deem it 'transient', and maintain the ongoing madness of ZIRP.
-

The afternoon saw the SPX cool from 3947 to 3901, and settling at 3910. Whilst some might argue it was due to Powell/Yellen comments - in testimony to the US political hacks, its arguably mostly just s/t cyclical factors.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling +7.5% to 20.30. 
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A glimpse of summer 2021

A fine spring day

Full moon will be March 28th.

A little closer

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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Positive start

US equity indexes mostly closed positive, SPX +27pts (0.7%) at 3940. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled -0.1%.

SPX - daily5

VIX - daily3

Summary

The week began on a broadly positive note, the SPX opening in minor chop mode, but leaning upward, and building significant gains into the late afternoon.

Volatility was naturally subdued, the VIX settling -9.9% to 18.88.
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Spring Magnolias

Sun pillar

Twilight moon in the twilight zone

Bullish 332x zoom

–
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/Trading_Sunset

Goodnight from London
--

 

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