Saturday, 6 August 2022

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.1% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.9% (R2K), +0.4% (SPX), -0.1% (Dow, Trans), to -0.4% (NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500


Nasdaq comp'

Dow

R2K

NYSE comp'

Trans

Summary

Three US equity indexes settled net higher for the week, with three net lower.

The Nasdaq comp' was very significantly higher, whilst the NYSE comp' was moderately lower.

Weekly momentum is positive in all indexes.

More broadly, all six US equity indexes are trading under their respective monthly 10MA, with negative momentum. By definition, all six indexes remain m/t bearish.

Looking ahead

The highlight of the week will be Wednesday's CPI, although I'd put PPI on almost equal status.

Earnings:

M - PLTR, BTNX, GOLD, TSN, D, BRK.B, UPST, NVAX, APPS, TTWO, CLOV, LMND, BLNK, DOCN, LAZR

T - NCLH, RL, WKHS, CRON, CPRI, COIN, RBLX, TTD, PLUG, U, WISH, CELH, WYNN, MGNI

W - JACK, WIX, JMIA, PSFE, FOX, DIS, BROS, CPNG, SONO, BMBL,

T - VERU, SIX, GOOS, CAH, RIVN, VET, ILMN

F -

-

Econ-data/events

M -

T - Productivity/costs

W - CPI, wholesale invent', EIA Pet', US T-Budget

T - PPI, weekly jobs

F - Consumer sent'.

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Final note

A mixed week, but we're still mostly leaning upward from the June lows.

Not surprisingly, we're seeing the usual suspects crawl out of their little holes, touting renewed 'broad upside', some are even calling for new historic highs before year end. I see any such talk as plain crazy.

The US equity market remains m/t broken, and that view would only change if we get a sustained break AND hold above old support (now resistance) of the 200dma, and the monthly 10MA, both in the 4300s.

Best guess... s/t bearish... for a week or two, before another push upward into early Sept' with the Labor day holiday break. From there... 'normal service' to resume, with distinct horror into/across Q4. 

As someone I respect might say, we have some interesting and exciting opportunities ahead!


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Have a good weekend
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