It was a very mixed month for world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from -6.6% (Brazil), -5.0% (Hong Kong), -4.3% (USA), -3.6% (Germany), -2.5% (Australia), -1.9% (South Africa), +0.7% (China), +2.7% (India), +4.8% (Japan), to +5.6% (Russia).
Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.
USA - Dow
Germany – DAX
Japan – Nikkei
Brazil – Bovespa
Russia - RTSI
India – SENSEX
China – Shanghai comp'
South Africa – Dow
Hong Kong – Hang Seng
Australia – AORD
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Summary
Six of the world equity markets settled net lower for September, with four net higher.
Brazil lead the way lower, whilst Russia settled powerfully higher.
The Indian market broke a new historic high.
Seven world equity markets are holding above their respective monthly 10MA, the three exceptions being Brazil, South Africa, and Hong Kong.
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Looking ahead
The schedule is light, with Q3 earnings set to formally begin with the financials Wed' Oct'13th.
Earnings:
M -
T - PEP
W - STZ, LEVI
T - TLRY, CAG
F -
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Econ-data:
M - Factory orders
T - Intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv'
W - ADP jobs, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, consumer credit
F - Monthly jobs,
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Final note
September was a net bearish month for the collective of world equity markets, and whilst October offers further downside, I'm not hearing alarm bells.
Ohh, am I supposed to be concerned about QE taper? Or how about rate hikes? Historically, neither of those have been a problem for equities. Do I need to remind you that higher yields/rates are especially bullish for the banks? My only concerns are geo-political, or something health related.
One of the more notable things of the past week was Copperman, appearing on CNBC (Thurs' Sept'30th), who argued that "... the real bubble is in bonds", and I agree. Yields appear to have a secure short/mid term floor. Further, by definition, higher yields > lower bond prices > higher equities. Or maybe you'd like to pick up a US 10yr offering 1.48% ? Or how about a German bond offering -0.23% ?
I could go on, but it remains the case that equities are unquestionably superior to the primary alternative of bonds. Yes, there are other asset classes, not least property, but for most, it remains a case of TINA - 'There Is No Alternative'.
Meanwhile, WTIC is close to the key $77s, and the R2K still appears set for a bullish breakout. Both are massively important variables, and if I'm right about just those two things, you can extrapolate to the rest of the US, even the global equity market into 2022.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
