It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -2.4% (Transports), -1.9% (Nasdaq comp'), -1.6% (NYSE comp'), -1.0% (SPX), to -0.5% (Dow).
Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes
sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans
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Summary
All five US equity indexes settled net lower for the week.
The Transports lead the way lower, with the Dow most resilient.
The SPX and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.
More broadly, all five US equity indexes are still holding above their respective monthly 10MA, and I thus see the m/t trend in all five as bullish.
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Looking ahead
A busy week is ahead, with a truck load of earnings.
Earnings:
M - IBM, STLD, JBHT
T - ALLY, HAL, PM, TRV, NFLX, UAL, CMG, IBKR
W - KO, JNJ, VZ, HOG, STX, ANTM, BKR, TXN, LVS, KMI, CSX
T - CLF, T, AAL, FCX, NEM, NUE, DHI, LUV, ABT, ALK, CROX, DOW, INTL, SNAP, TWTR, COF
F - AXP, SLB, NEE, HON
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Econ-data/events
M - Home builders index
T - Housing starts, building permits
W - EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, existing home sales, leading indi'
F - PMI manu', PMI serv'
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| ... and once more... night must fall. |
Final note
Wednesday saw the sp'500 print a new historic high of 4393, yet its taken just a couple of days of choppy cooling, and we're seeing renewed chatter of 'omg, a correction might be starting!'. As I like to say, most would do well to go stare at a weekly or monthly candle chart, for a good thirty minutes or so.
The m/t trend remains comfortably bullish. In fact, equity bulls have downside buffer to around 4000, before testing initial supports. Whilst I'm looking for a little lower in the immediate term, the 4400/4500s appear realistic, if not probable, by around Labor day.
Indeed, things really should only get difficult from early September onward. By mid September, core CPI will be in the mid 5s, maybe even challenging 6.0%. At that point, the market might start to panic that the fed will have to cut QE, and start raising rates, each and every fed meeting.
In the meantime, I see opportunities, not least within energy, which still appears the most straight forward trade/investment for the mid term. Whilst the lunatics of Wallstreetbets are meddling in AMC, GME, and SPCE, yours truly will sleep comfortably holding OXY, SLB, and a wheel barrow of other things.
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Have
a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.
